-- JANUARY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FALLS TO 5.9% FROM 6.6%,LOWEST RATE FOR NYC RESIDENTS SINCE JULY 2001 --

Comptroller William C. Thompson, Jr. today released his office’s analysis and seasonal adjustment of January job numbers reported by the New York State Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Total payroll jobs rose 13,800 in January, seasonally adjusted, after job losses in the previous three months, based on newly revised numbers. Private-sector payroll jobs accounted for most of the increases, after virtually no change in the previous three months.

This was the largest monthly gain in total jobs since September 2000, when the increase was 29,100. The pace of growth in January, if continued, would result in an annual increase in jobs of 4.8 percent, outpacing the nation’s increase of 1.2 percent.

“ New York City’s labor market strengthened in January, on a seasonally adjusted basis,” Thompson said. “The unemployment rate for City residents fell to 5.9 percent from 6.6 percent in December, marking the first time the City’s unemployment rate has fallen below 6 percent since before 9/11, in July 2001.”

The number of New York City residents reporting being employed rose on a seasonally adjusted basis by 5,100 in January – the largest monthly increase since September 2004. The City’s labor force fell by 23,200, seasonally adjusted, after an increase of 14,400 in December. The number of unemployed City residents fell by 28,400 in January to 217,600, after increasing by 10,200 in December. The number of employed New York City residents rose to 3,490,100, seasonally adjusted, after having risen to 3,485,000 in December.

It should be noted that resident employment and unemployment data are volatile because they are based on a relatively small sample of New York City households.

The City’s Year-over-Year Monthly Lag behind U.S. in Job Creation Widens

In January, the City’s job growth continued to lag the nation when comparing how employment has grown over a 12-month period. However, the gap narrowed to 0.6 of a percentage point. The City has lagged the nation in job creation consistently since March 2001, with the gap opening up significantly in the final months of 2001, as may be seen by the bars in Chart 1.

Chart 1. NYC and U.S. Show Positive Job Growth But NYC Still Lags U.S. in Year-over-Year Monthly Percent Changes in Jobs, January 2000 to Jan. 2005

Data Source: Computations by the NYC Comptroller's Office based on data from New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (Y/Y = Year over Year.)

Total Jobs Rose by 13,800 in January, Led by Health and Education

Total jobs located in New York City, seasonally adjusted, rose by 13,800 in January compared with December. The private sector gained 13,300 jobs.

Private sector gains were widespread. Six industries showed increases, led by education and health, which grew by 5,400 jobs. Professional and business services increased by 3,300 jobs, and both the leisure and hospitality and the information industries increased by 2,100 jobs. Financial services added 900 jobs, other services 500 jobs and trade, transportationand utilities added 400 jobs. Only two industries showed declines – manufacturing, which lost 1,000 jobs and construction, which lost 400 jobs. This is shown in Chart 2 on the next page.

Governments in the City increased the number of their employees by 500 in January, seasonally adjusted. Local government jobs (i.e., jobs in City government and in independent local agencies like the MTA) increased by 1,000 in January, seasonally adjusted, while Federal jobs decreased by 400 and state jobs decreased by 100. January was the sixth consecutive month of decrease in Federal jobs located in the City, for a total of 1,800 jobs.

Since December 2000, New York City has lost 191,900 jobs, seasonally adjusted, of which 114,000 jobs (or 59.4 percent) have been lost since September 2001.

Chart 2. Change in NYC Jobs by NAICS Category, January 2005 Compared with
December 2004, Seasonally Adjusted, ‘000, and SAAR

Data Source: New York State Department of Labor and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, revised series based on NAICS job categories. The percent-change numbers in parentheses are annualized numbers based on month-to-month changes. SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate (in parentheses).

The City’s Unemployment Rate Fell to 5.9 percent in January

The City’s unemployment rate in January fell to 5.9 percent from 6.6 percent in December, seasonally adjusted. The number of unemployed New Yorkers fell by 28,400, seasonally adjusted, in January, after having increased by 10,200 in December. The number of employed New Yorkers increased by 5,100 in January, seasonally adjusted, after having risen by 4,200 in December.

The City’s labor-force-participation rate (a measure of the number of New Yorkers working relative to the adult population) fell to 58.8 percent in January from 59.2 percent in December. The City’s labor-force-participation rate is seven percentage points below the national average of 66.0 percent.

The Year 2004 after Revisions  

Although the City’s 2004 payroll-job gain of 10,000 jobs (the increase of the 2004 annual average over the 2003 annual average) was the first the City has seen since the recession began in 2001, the revised numbers show that jobs grew at half the increase (20,700) that had been indicated by the previous estimates of the New York State Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The difference between the preliminary and revised figures was especially significant for three sectors:

• The information sector before revisions was reported as gaining 6,500 jobs for 2004, but this number was revised down to a loss of 2,100.
• The professional and business services sector was reported as gaining 10,800 jobs, but the number was revised down to a gain of only 800 jobs.
• The financial activities sector was reported was declining by 1,700 but the revised numbers show a gain of 1,000.

Revisions in the first two sectors account for most of the difference between the preliminary and revised numbers. The revision in the financial activities sector is smaller but is significant because of the high wages in this sector.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has in recent years re-benchmarked its numbers every year starting with the January data, revising prior months’ data at the same time. The BLS has announced that in future it will be re-benchmarking on a continuing monthly basis.  

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The numbers are reported according to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which replaced the previous Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes, as described at http://stats.bls.gov/sae/saenaics.htm. The numbers for January 2005 are part of a re-benchmarked series issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics that supersedes previous labor market reports.