New York City Cash Balance Projection April 2017
April 4, 2017
As of March 31, 2017, New York City’s unrestricted cash balance stood at $11.803 billion, down $1.913 billion compared to last year. Over the past twelve months, the balance has averaged $10.191 billion, compared to $10.392 billion for the same period last year. The Comptroller’s office forecast indicates that cash balances will fall below last year’s levels, although the city’s liquidity position remains strong compared to historical levels.
In our November 2016 Cash Letter, we projected that the annual cash balance low would occur during early to mid-December and would measure between $5.5 and $6.0 billion. This year’s seasonal low occurred on December 5, 2016, and measured $5.421 billion. Last year’s low occurred on December 14, 2015, and measured $7.086 billion.
The following projection update outlines expected cash balances through the end of May 2017, and incorporates relevant factors from the FY18 Preliminary Budget. Upon release of the Executive Budget we will have a better understanding of the final month of the fiscal year. At that time we will be able to provide a clearer picture of the fiscal year-end cash balances.
The City’s cash balances rose steadily from FY11 to FY16. The average daily balance for FY16 measured $10.684 billion compared to $9.460 billion in FY15, $7.779 billion in FY14, $5.959 billion in FY13, $5.146 billion in FY12, and $5.053 billion in FY11. At the close of FY16, the City recorded an unrestricted cash balance of $11.719 billion, the highest year-end closing balance on record. In FY17 to-date, the average daily balance of $9.551 billion has been lower than last year but still higher than any prior year.
The projection assumes a slowdown in revenue growth. While New York City’s economy remains robust, the rate of economic growth is slowing, with a corresponding slowdown in job growth from the record levels of the past few years. Also contributing to lower cash balances compared to last year are lower transfers from the capital proceeds fund into the general fund, which are expected to be $1.025 billion this year, compared to $1.902 billion in the same period in FY 2016. At the same time, total expenditures are on the rise, driven by increases in spending on fringe benefits for city employees, higher debt service payments, and rising costs associated with public assistance and other social programs.
Projection details are in the following pages of this document.
NYC Projected Cash Balances
NYC Cash Balance Monthly Detail
|Commercial Rent Tax||26.55||6.18||32.72|
|Personal Income Tax||1,660.00||514.68||2,174.68|
|General Corporation Tax||167.45||57.42||224.86|
|Unincorporated Business Tax||507.47||34.86||542.33|
|Real Property Tax||589.45||93.44||682.88|
|Less Refunds All Taxes||-76.70||-76.70||-153.41|
|Federal Community Development||13.50||12.51||26.00|
|Total Federal Aid||358.80||627.43||986.24|
|NYS Higher Education||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|Total New York State Aid||523.02||1,997.53||2,520.55|
|NYS Revenue Sharing||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|Other Intergovernmental Aid||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|Fines and Forfeitures||88.68||88.68||177.36|
|Senior College Tuition and Fees||0.21||0.21||0.42|
|Prior Federal Aid||41.58||75.11||116.69|
|Prior NYS Aid||2.44||5.23||7.68|
|Total Federal And NYS Prior Aid||44.02||80.34||124.37|
|Balance Sheet Inflows||19.57||19.57||39.13|
|Transfers from Capital Proceeds||125.00||900.00||1,025.00|
|Payroll Taxes Inflows||164.52||165.21||329.73|
|Other Operating Inflow||446.90||446.90||893.79|
|Total Other Inflows||838.99||1,557.67||2,396.66|
NYC Cash Balance Monthly Detail
|Other Outflow Capital||17.00||170.00||187.00|
|GO Debt Service Funding||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|NYCTFA Debt Service Funding||0.00||213.41||213.41|
|Other Debt Service Funding||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|Repay Seasonal Borrowing||0.00||0.00||0.00|
|Payroll Taxes Outflow||776.14||784.17||1,560.30|
|Total Other Outflows||1,631.75||2,151.18||3,782.93|
Prepared by Irina Livshits, Division Chief • Published by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, Bureau of Budget • Preston Niblack, Deputy Comptroller for Budget