As of May 31, 2017, New York City’s unrestricted cash balance stood at $9.283 billion, below last year’s figure by $2.446 billion.  Over the past twelve months, the balance has averaged $9.695 billion, compared to $10.621 billion for the same period last year.

The accompanying updated projection outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from June 1 to October 30, 2017, and incorporates guidance provided in the Executive Budget.  It presents our first look into FY18, which begins on July 1.

The Comptroller’s office forecast indicates that cash balances will fall below last year’s levels, although the city’s liquidity position remains strong compared to historical levels.

The projection indicates a fiscal year-end (June 30, 2017) closing balance in the range of $9.2 billion to $10.1 billion, compared to $11.7 billion last year, $9.5 billion in FY15, $9.9 billion in FY14, and $7.9 billion in FY13.

The Executive budget projects a prepayment of debt service in the amount of $3.327 billion, and a prepayment of retiree health care expenses in the amount of $400 million.  Based on our estimates, we believe that the final prepayment amount will increase to $4.027 billion and we have modeled this estimate into our model. We have also modeled a disbursement of $2.279 billion into the Retiree Health Benefit Trust (RHBT) to cover the cost of current retiree health benefits.

In June, the City plans no new money GO and TFA PIT bond sales.  The City is likely to resume new money issuance in July or early August.  We project that the total capital transfers in June and July will be very light and much heavier in August, September, and October.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.  For a complete discussion of NYC cash flows, please visit our Quarterly Cash Report at http://comptroller.nyc.gov/reports/cash-reports/.

NYC Projected Cash Balances

($ Millions)

High Low Baseline
01-Jun-17 9,961 9,067 9,514
02-Jun-17 9,369 8,528 8,948
05-Jun-17 9,114 8,296 8,705
06-Jun-17 9,554 8,696 9,125
07-Jun-17 9,574 8,714 9,144
08-Jun-17 9,740 8,866 9,303
09-Jun-17 9,813 8,932 9,372
12-Jun-17 9,763 8,886 9,324
13-Jun-17 9,830 8,948 9,389
14-Jun-17 9,822 8,941 9,382
15-Jun-17 9,883 8,996 9,440
16-Jun-17 9,254 8,423 8,839
19-Jun-17 9,021 8,212 8,616
20-Jun-17 9,123 8,304 8,713
21-Jun-17 9,282 8,449 8,865
22-Jun-17 9,548 8,691 9,119
23-Jun-17 9,952 9,058 9,505
26-Jun-17 10,373 9,442 9,907
27-Jun-17 8,764 7,977 8,371
28-Jun-17 6,128 5,578 5,853
29-Jun-17 7,089 6,453 6,771
30-Jun-17 10,094 9,188 9,641
03-Jul-17 9,963 9,050 9,506
05-Jul-17 12,045   10,942 11,494
06-Jul-17 12,317   11,188 11,753
07-Jul-17 12,693   11,531 12,112
10-Jul-17 12,704   11,540 12,122
11-Jul-17 12,718   11,553 12,136
12-Jul-17 12,769   11,600 12,185
13-Jul-17 12,805   11,632 12,218
14-Jul-17 11,841   10,757 11,299
17-Jul-17 11,800   10,719 11,259
18-Jul-17 11,274   10,241 10,758
19-Jul-17 11,115   10,097 10,606
20-Jul-17 11,030   10,020 10,525
21-Jul-17 10,806 9,816 10,311
24-Jul-17 10,599 9,628 10,113
25-Jul-17 10,395 9,443 9,919
26-Jul-17 10,312 9,367 9,840
27-Jul-17 10,211 9,276 9,743
28-Jul-17 9,492 8,622 9,057
31-Jul-17 9,182 8,341 8,761

 

NYC Projected Cash Balances

($ Millions)

High Low Baseline
01-Aug-17 8,792 7,844 8,318
02-Aug-17 8,714 7,774 8,244
03-Aug-17 8,678 7,742 8,210
04-Aug-17 9,037 8,062 8,550
07-Aug-17 9,029 8,055 8,542
08-Aug-17 9,017 8,045 8,531
09-Aug-17 9,700 8,654 9,177
10-Aug-17 9,601 8,566 9,083
11-Aug-17 9,055 8,078 8,566
14-Aug-17 8,910 7,949 8,430
15-Aug-17 8,271 7,379 7,825
16-Aug-17 7,995 7,133 7,564
17-Aug-17 7,969 7,109 7,539
18-Aug-17 7,821 6,978 7,400
21-Aug-17 7,692 6,862 7,277
22-Aug-17 7,567 6,751 7,159
23-Aug-17 8,027 7,161 7,594
24-Aug-17 7,981 7,120 7,550
25-Aug-17 7,320 6,530 6,925
28-Aug-17 7,219 6,440 6,829
29-Aug-17 6,895 6,151 6,523
30-Aug-17 6,848 6,110 6,479
31-Aug-17 6,643 5,926 6,285
01-Sep-17 6,506 5,805 6,155
05-Sep-17 6,512 5,810 6,161
06-Sep-17 6,536 5,831 6,183
07-Sep-17 6,566 5,858 6,212
08-Sep-17 6,390 5,701 6,045
11-Sep-17 6,463 5,766 6,114
12-Sep-17 6,322 5,641 5,982
13-Sep-17 6,723 5,998 6,360
14-Sep-17 6,861 6,121 6,491
15-Sep-17 6,836 6,099 6,467
18-Sep-17 6,814 6,079 6,447
19-Sep-17 6,911 6,165 6,538
20-Sep-17 6,982 6,229 6,606
21-Sep-17 7,173 6,399 6,786
22-Sep-17 6,614 5,901 6,257
25-Sep-17 6,612 5,899 6,256
26-Sep-17 7,384 6,587 6,986
27-Sep-17 7,963 7,104 7,533
28-Sep-17 8,094 7,221 7,657
29-Sep-17 8,141 7,263 7,702

 

NYC Projected Cash Balances

($ Millions)

High Low Baseline
02-Oct-17 8,544 7,623 8,084
03-Oct-17 8,344 7,444 7,894
04-Oct-17 8,353 7,452 7,902
05-Oct-17 8,846 7,892 8,369
06-Oct-17 8,225 7,338 7,781
10-Oct-17 8,166 7,286 7,726
11-Oct-17 8,133 7,256 7,695
12-Oct-17 8,125 7,248 7,686
13-Oct-17 7,855 7,008 7,431
16-Oct-17 8,405 7,498 7,952
17-Oct-17 8,258 7,367 7,812
18-Oct-17 8,266 7,375 7,820
19-Oct-17 8,308 7,412 7,860
20-Oct-17 7,610 6,789 7,199
23-Oct-17 7,472 6,666 7,069
24-Oct-17 7,121 6,353 6,737
25-Oct-17 7,301 6,514 6,907
26-Oct-17 7,216 6,438 6,827
27-Oct-17 7,113 6,346 6,730
30-Oct-17 7,030 6,272 6,651
31-Oct-17 6,783 6,052 6,417

 

NYC Cash Balance Monthly Detail

($ Millions)

Inflows Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jun-Oct-17
Opening Balance 9,282.65 9,641.23 8,761.12 6,284.55 7,702.29 9,282.65
Sales Tax 743.77 398.90 519.28 492.70 693.68 2,848.33
Utility Tax 19.99 19.99 19.99 19.99 19.99 99.97
Commercial Rent Tax 165.84 18.61 10.80 178.40 18.85 392.51
Personal Income Tax 942.28 564.55 620.01 1,063.93 895.47 4,086.26
General Corporation Tax 637.50 76.53 83.27 883.15 96.82 1,777.28
Banking Tax 47.07 17.77 0.12 80.61 0.75 146.32
Unincorporated Business Tax 401.98 33.69 29.29 415.91 51.82 932.69
Real Property Tax 6,998.65 4,597.72 188.65 882.24 1,152.34 13,819.60
Other Taxes 1,049.27 392.88 247.27 512.24 312.04 2,513.71
Less Refunds All Taxes -91.90 -91.90 -91.90 -91.90 -91.90 -459.49
Total Taxes 10,914.47 6,028.76 1,626.78 4,437.29 3,149.88 26,157.18
Federal Welfare 220.14 0.46 95.44 115.66 71.16 502.86
Federal Education 107.78 5.20 2.74 16.66 21.21 153.59
Federal Community Development 14.08 1.69 8.16 9.59 9.48 43.00
Federal Other 129.32 75.72 55.34 128.35 103.74 492.48
Total Federal Aid 471.32 83.07 161.68 270.27 205.58 1,191.92
NYS Welfare 147.99 44.96 22.80 16.97 50.27 282.98
NYS Health 41.72 52.03 1.61 28.64 43.41 167.39
NYS Education 829.43 2.20 7.46 943.25 264.17 2,046.51
NYS Higher Education 550.91 0.00 2.54 4.83 324.80 883.08
NYS Other 45.55 15.66 40.87 38.39 12.12 152.60
Total New York State Aid 1,615.60 114.85 75.28 1,032.07 694.76 3,532.55
NYS Revenue Sharing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Intergovernmental Aid 0.00 0.00 0.27 2.00 0.00 2.27
Total Intergovernmental 0.00 0.00 0.27 2.00 0.00 2.27
Water Board 0.00 419.13 253.58 221.25 238.87 1,132.83
Interest Income 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 8.60 43.00
Fines and Forfeitures 88.50 88.50 88.50 88.50 88.50 442.51
Miscellaneous Revenue 515.40 245.44 203.72 165.53 208.48 1,338.56
Senior College Tuition and Fees 329.93 0.14 0.14 0.14 159.56 489.90
Capital Interest 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.48
Housing Revenue 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 3.78 18.90
Total Miscellaneous 946.31 765.68 558.42 487.89 707.88 3,466.18
Prior Federal Aid 57.18 323.66 516.44 522.80 289.33 1,709.41
Prior NYS Aid 13.16 186.77 305.75 207.91 55.29 768.88
Total Federal And NYS Prior Aid 70.34 510.43 822.19 730.70 344.63 2,478.29
Balance Sheet Inflows 17.30 17.30 17.30 17.30 17.30 86.48
Federal/State Capital 30.00 66.19 38.15 100.71 46.79 281.84
Transfers from Capital Proceeds 130.00 125.00 1,325.00 725.00 625.00 2,930.00
Payroll Taxes Inflows 217.08 173.37 173.97 174.55 173.48 912.46
Seasonal Borrowing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Operating Inflow 540.64 380.64 380.64 380.64 380.64 2,063.21
Total Other Inflows 935.02 762.49 1,935.06 1,398.20 1,243.21 6,273.99
Total Inflows 14,953.07 8,265.28 5,179.67 8,358.42 6,345.94 43,102.38
Outflows Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Jun-Oct-17
Payroll 1,847.19 1,499.18 1,504.42 1,509.40 1,500.18 7,860.38
Pensions 984.18 784.32 784.32 784.32 784.32 4,121.45
Social Security 152.24 154.15 203.02 156.39 157.78 823.58
Health Plan 507.15 404.77 364.77 364.77 364.77 2,006.22
Other PS 98.48 98.48 98.48 98.48 98.48 492.39
Total PS 3,589.24 2,940.89 2,955.00 2,913.36 2,905.52 15,304.01
PA 251.73 251.73 251.73 251.73 251.73 1,258.65
MA 434.18 517.38 476.27 374.15 377.46 2,179.44
Other DOSS 301.45 280.70 180.05 219.54 209.48 1,191.22
HHC 133.65 132.83 125.35 75.00 94.93 561.75
TA 60.52 123.84 92.03 0.00 0.06 276.45
HA 7.47 0.05 32.48 0.43 0.54 40.97
Lump Sum 209.42 222.11 237.63 203.25 251.56 1,123.97
Vendor Payments 1,577.54 1,730.49 1,649.41 1,267.14 1,676.43 7,901.02
Other OTPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total OTPS 2,975.96 3,259.13 3,044.94 2,391.24 2,862.19 14,533.47
City Capital 461.00 998.05 393.07 422.27 563.84 2,838.22
Other Outflow Capital 30.00 205.44 41.48 207.67 26.96 511.55
GO Debt Service Funding 0.00 741.10 0.00 0.00 265.04 1,006.14
NYCTFA Debt Service Funding 210.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 210.51
Other Debt Service Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Repay Seasonal Borrowing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payroll Taxes Outflow 790.78 776.14 997.12 781.50 782.56 4,128.09
Other Outflows 6,537.00 224.64 224.64 224.64 224.64 7,435.58
Total Other Outflows 8,029.29 2,945.37 1,656.30 1,636.08 1,863.04 16,130.09
Total Outflows 14,594.50 9,145.39 7,656.25 6,940.68 7,630.75 45,967.56
Net Flow 358.58 -880.11 -2,476.57 1,417.74 -1,284.81 -2,865.18
Ending Balance 9,641.23 8,761.12 6,284.55 7,702.29 6,417.47 6,417.47

 


Prepared by Irina Livshits, Division Chief

Published by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, Bureau of Budget

Preston Niblack, Deputy Comptroller for Budget