On July 3rd, NYC started FY18 with $9.341 billion in cash.  Since then, cash balances have given up a lot of ground, and the gap between FY17 and FY18 figures has increased.  As of November 30, New York City’s unrestricted cash balance stood at $2.139 billion, compared to $6.307 billion at the same time last year.  The City’s economy continues to grow.  Yet, during 1Q18 revenues couldn’t keep pace with spending. In 1Q18, cash revenues fell 2.4%, due to lower tax revenues and sluggish federal and state aid receipts, while expenditures rose 2.6%, compared to the same period last year.

NYC Historical Cash Balances Past 12 Months vs. Year-Ago

($ in Millions)

The accompanying updated projection outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from December 1, 2017 to March 30, 2018, and incorporates guidance provided in the November  2017 Financial Plan.

NYC Projected Cash Balances

($ Millions)

Our latest estimates uphold the basic message of our August projection, that cash balances are going to trend lower relative to year-ago marks.  The FY18 cash balance low point will occur during the first week of December and will measure $1.4 to $1.6 billion, significantly below last year’s low of $5.421 billion.  In the last ten years, the lowest seasonal low occurred in FY10 and measured $449 million.

Towards the middle of December, the City usually starts seeing an influx of real estate tax payments, which lasts through the first few days of January.  By the end of December, the cash balances should increase to $6.500 billion.  We project that cash flow balances will average $4.628 billion during the next four months compared to $9.189 billion during the same time last year.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.

NYC Projected Cash Balances

($ Millions)
High Low Baseline
01-Dec-17 1,706 1,489 1,598
04-Dec-17 1,609 1,404 1,507
05-Dec-17 1,599 1,396 1,498
06-Dec-17 1,751 1,528 1,639
07-Dec-17 2,281 1,991 2,136
08-Dec-17 2,341 2,043 2,192
11-Dec-17 2,455 2,142 2,299
12-Dec-17 2,544 2,220 2,382
13-Dec-17 2,566 2,239 2,403
14-Dec-17 2,813 2,455 2,634
15-Dec-17 2,904 2,534 2,719
18-Dec-17 2,520 2,199 2,360
19-Dec-17 2,551 2,226 2,388
20-Dec-17 2,872 2,506 2,689
21-Dec-17 3,197 2,790 2,993
22-Dec-17 3,312 2,890 3,101
26-Dec-17 3,700 3,229 3,465
27-Dec-17 3,959 3,455 3,707
28-Dec-17 4,375 3,818 4,097
29-Dec-17 6,942 6,058 6,500
02-Jan-18 6,878 5,895 6,387
03-Jan-18 6,782 5,813 6,297
04-Jan-18 8,179 7,010 7,595
05-Jan-18 8,550 7,327 7,938
08-Jan-18 8,634 7,399 8,017
09-Jan-18 8,703 7,458 8,081
10-Jan-18 9,077 7,779 8,428
11-Jan-18 9,013 7,724 8,368
12-Jan-18 8,031 6,883 7,457
16-Jan-18 7,511 6,437 6,974
17-Jan-18 7,403 6,345 6,874
18-Jan-18 7,551 6,472 7,011
19-Jan-18 7,457 6,391 6,924
22-Jan-18 7,362 6,309 6,836
23-Jan-18 7,371 6,317 6,844
24-Jan-18 7,638 6,546 7,092
25-Jan-18 7,627 6,536 7,081
26-Jan-18 6,990 5,991 6,490
29-Jan-18 6,681 5,725 6,203
30-Jan-18 6,695 5,738 6,216
31-Jan-18 6,532 5,598 6,065

NYC Projected Cash Balances

($ Millions)
High Low Baseline
01-Feb-18 6,387 5,375 5,881
02-Feb-18 6,294 5,297 5,795
05-Feb-18 6,234 5,247 5,741
06-Feb-18 6,185 5,206 5,695
07-Feb-18 6,898 5,806 6,352
08-Feb-18 6,832 5,750 6,291
09-Feb-18 6,144 5,171 5,657
12-Feb-18 5,788 4,871 5,329
13-Feb-18 5,580 4,696 5,138
14-Feb-18 5,579 4,695 5,137
15-Feb-18 5,273 4,438 4,856
16-Feb-18 4,950 4,166 4,558
20-Feb-18 4,756 4,003 4,380
21-Feb-18 4,900 4,124 4,512
22-Feb-18 4,735 3,985 4,360
23-Feb-18 4,223 3,554 3,888
26-Feb-18 3,865 3,253 3,559
27-Feb-18 3,766 3,170 3,468
28-Feb-18 3,650 3,072 3,361
01-Mar-18 3,564 2,999 3,281
02-Mar-18 3,571 3,005 3,288
05-Mar-18 3,619 3,046 3,333
06-Mar-18 4,059 3,416 3,738
07-Mar-18 4,346 3,658 4,002
08-Mar-18 4,402 3,705 4,053
09-Mar-18 3,835 3,228 3,532
12-Mar-18 3,488 2,936 3,212
13-Mar-18 3,526 2,967 3,246
14-Mar-18 3,491 2,938 3,214
15-Mar-18 4,160 3,501 3,830
16-Mar-18 3,941 3,317 3,629
19-Mar-18 3,878 3,264 3,571
20-Mar-18 3,860 3,249 3,555
21-Mar-18 4,171 3,510 3,840
22-Mar-18 4,250 3,576 3,913
23-Mar-18 3,708 3,121 3,414
26-Mar-18 3,500 2,946 3,223
27-Mar-18 4,054 3,412 3,733
28-Mar-18 4,133 3,478 3,805
29-Mar-18 4,203 3,537 3,870
30-Mar-18 7,366 6,199 6,782

NYC Cash Balance Monthly Detail

($ Millions)
Inflows Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Dec-17-Mar-18
Opening Balance 2,139.26 6,500.06 6,065.04 3,361.03 2,139.26
Sales Tax 813.96 454.62 571.83 469.23 2,309.64
Utility Tax 29.02 29.02 29.02 29.02 116.06
Commercial Rent Tax 168.16 15.46 9.04 179.36 372.02
Personal Income Tax 1,024.15 1,634.77 813.59 968.79 4,441.30
General Corporation Tax 717.94 96.28 67.08 745.77 1,627.08
Banking Tax 277.09 3.61 19.81 6.55 307.07
Unincorporated Business Tax 212.30 422.06 59.12 181.85 875.33
Real Property Tax 5,691.59 3,276.61 109.99 1,107.06 10,185.25
Other Taxes 303.73 269.95 168.80 377.80 1,120.29
Less Refunds All Taxes -91.81 -91.81 -91.81 -91.81 -367.23
Total Taxes 9,146.13 6,110.58 1,756.47 3,973.63 20,986.82
Federal Welfare 202.00 78.70 60.33 357.15 698.18
Federal Education 15.10 48.97 105.60 271.98 441.64
Federal Community Development 14.48 10.15 11.22 12.28 48.13
Federal Other 112.71 89.96 154.58 143.24 500.50
Total Federal Aid 344.29 227.78 331.73 784.65 1,688.45
NYS Welfare 109.01 83.78 100.38 275.56 568.74
NYS Health 29.87 36.16 12.33 37.28 115.64
NYS Education 873.43 62.52 104.19 3,359.71 4,399.84
NYS Higher Education 1.51 93.90 260.00 362.15 717.55
NYS Other 53.99 22.71 37.21 79.72 193.63
Total New York State Aid 1,067.81 299.06 514.12 4,114.42 5,995.40
NYS Revenue Sharing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Intergovernmental Aid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total Intergovernmental 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Water Board 234.50 5.47 0.00 0.00 239.97
Interest Income 12.20 12.20 12.20 12.20 48.80
Fines and Forfeitures 89.06 89.06 89.06 89.06 356.25
Miscellaneous Revenue 142.67 254.37 182.44 332.96 912.44
Senior College Tuition and Fees 0.15 255.75 0.15 255.75 511.80
Capital Interest 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.31
Housing Revenue 3.33 3.33 3.33 3.33 13.31
Total Miscellaneous 481.99 620.25 287.26 693.37 2,082.88
Prior Federal Aid 120.05 57.05 142.99 265.61 585.70
Prior NYS Aid 76.08 47.97 48.40 306.89 479.34
Total Federal And NYS Prior Aid 196.13 105.02 191.39 572.50 1,065.04
Balance Sheet Inflows 14.77 14.77 14.77 14.77 59.07
Federal/State Capital 51.39 41.55 61.18 47.47 201.59
Transfers from Capital Proceeds 575.00 625.00 665.00 525.00 2,390.00
Payroll Taxes Inflows 213.10 165.12 164.55 166.45 709.22
Seasonal Borrowing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Operating Inflow 334.48 334.48 334.48 334.48 1,337.90
Total Other Inflows 1,188.73 1,180.91 1,239.97 1,088.16 4,697.78
Total Inflows 12,425.08 8,543.60 4,320.95 11,226.73 36,516.36

NYC Cash Balance Monthly Detail

($ Millions)
Outflows Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Dec-17-Mar-18
Payroll 2,038.54 1,502.08 1,496.92 1,514.18 6,551.72
Pensions 791.23 791.23 791.23 791.23 3,164.91
Social Security 158.00 204.65 157.79 158.44 678.87
Health Plan 499.34 399.56 359.56 359.56 1,618.01
Other PS 93.35 93.35 93.35 93.35 373.38
Total PS 3,580.45 2,990.86 2,898.83 2,916.75 12,386.89
PA 276.89 276.89 276.89 276.89 1,107.55
MA 403.24 403.24 403.24 403.24 1,612.95
Other DOSS 234.65 218.19 205.04 240.05 897.93
HHC 22.25 79.00 29.84 71.86 202.95
TA 35.06 0.00 0.00 0.16 35.22
HA 1.42 0.09 0.00 59.18 60.69
Lump Sum 235.77 145.20 158.43 210.45 749.85
Vendor Payments 1,697.14 1,641.59 1,594.36 1,548.22 6,481.32
Other OTPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total OTPS 2,906.41 2,764.19 2,667.80 2,810.05 11,148.46
City Capital 533.27 921.81 355.90 806.62 2,617.59
Other Outflow Capital 121.49 153.46 60.86 227.23 563.02
GO Debt Service Funding 0.00 844.10 0.00 0.00 844.10
NYCTFA Debt Service Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Debt Service Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Repay Seasonal Borrowing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payroll Taxes Outflow 697.69 1,079.24 816.60 819.91 3,413.44
Other Outflows 224.97 224.97 224.97 224.97 899.90
Total Other Outflows 1,577.42 3,223.58 1,458.32 2,078.72 8,338.04
Total Outflows 8,064.28 8,978.63 7,024.96 7,805.52 31,873.39
Net Flow 4,360.80 -435.03 -2,704.01 3,421.21 4,642.98
Ending Balance 6,500.06 6,065.04 3,361.03 6,782.24 6,782.24

Prepared by Irina Livshits, Division Chief

Published by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, Bureau of Budget

Preston Niblack, Deputy Comptroller for Budget