As of August 31, 2017, New York City’s unrestricted cash balance stood at $6.813 billion, below last year’s figure by $1.553 billion.  Over the past twelve months, the balance has averaged $9.324 billion, compared to $10.736 billion for the same period last year.

The accompanying updated projection outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from September 1 to December 31, 2017, and incorporates guidance provided in the Adopted Budget.

The Comptroller’s office forecast indicates that cash balances will fall below last year’s levels but we will have sufficient cash reserves during the leanest part of the year.

We project that cash flow balances will average $6.486 billion during the next four months compared to $8.405 billion during the same time last year.

As has been the pattern for many years, the annual cash balance low will  occur during early to mid-December and will measure between $3.6 billion and $4.1 billion.  In comparison, the seasonal low measured $5.421 billion in FY17, $7.086 billion in FY16, $4.609 billion in FY15, $3.451 billion in FY14, and $2.352 billion in FY13.

The New York City economy continues to grow at a healthy pace and seems to be unaffected by higher interest rates and vague or vacillating economic policy coming from Washington.  Our projection assumes a moderate revenue growth, mostly driven by increases in both property and non-property tax revenues.  We also project higher expenditures, stemming from higher spending on salaries and wages, fringe benefits, and debt service.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.

 NYC Projected Cash Balances

($ Millions)

High Low Baseline
01-Sep-17       6,973     6,347       6,660
05-Sep-17       6,946     6,322       6,634
06-Sep-17       6,946     6,323       6,634
07-Sep-17       6,952     6,328       6,640
08-Sep-17       6,754     6,148       6,451
11-Sep-17       6,558     5,969       6,263
12-Sep-17       6,616     6,022       6,319
13-Sep-17       7,093     6,456       6,774
14-Sep-17       7,204     6,558       6,881
15-Sep-17       7,165     6,522       6,843
18-Sep-17       7,120     6,480       6,800
19-Sep-17       7,207     6,560       6,883
20-Sep-17       7,267     6,614       6,940
21-Sep-17       7,444     6,775       7,110
22-Sep-17       6,870     6,253       6,561
25-Sep-17       6,612     6,019       6,316
26-Sep-17       7,637     6,951       7,294
27-Sep-17       8,252     7,511       7,882
28-Sep-17       8,358     7,608       7,983
29-Sep-17       8,382     7,629       8,006
02-Oct-17       8,546     7,779       8,163
03-Oct-17       8,520     7,755       8,137
04-Oct-17       8,558     7,774       8,166
05-Oct-17       9,087     8,255       8,671
06-Oct-17       8,486     7,709       8,097
10-Oct-17       8,208     7,456       7,832
11-Oct-17       8,448     7,674       8,061
12-Oct-17       8,463     7,688       8,075
13-Oct-17       8,220     7,467       7,843
16-Oct-17       8,645     7,853       8,249
17-Oct-17       8,670     7,876       8,273
18-Oct-17       8,703     7,906       8,305
19-Oct-17       8,769     7,966       8,367
20-Oct-17       8,091     7,350       7,720
23-Oct-17       7,734     7,025       7,380
24-Oct-17       7,632     6,933       7,282
25-Oct-17       7,861     7,140       7,500
26-Oct-17       7,800     7,085       7,443
27-Oct-17       7,727     7,020       7,374
30-Oct-17       7,662     6,960       7,311
31-Oct-17       7,442     6,760       7,101

 

 NYC Projected Cash Balances

($ Millions)

High Low Baseline
01-Nov-17       7,205     6,545       6,875
02-Nov-17       7,240     6,330       6,785
03-Nov-17       6,555     5,732       6,143
06-Nov-17       6,633     5,800       6,217
07-Nov-17       6,556     5,733       6,145
08-Nov-17       6,906     6,039       6,472
09-Nov-17       6,778     5,927       6,353
13-Nov-17       6,804     5,949       6,377
14-Nov-17       7,253     6,342       6,797
15-Nov-17       6,870     6,007       6,439
16-Nov-17       6,749     5,902       6,326
17-Nov-17       5,953     5,205       5,579
20-Nov-17       5,507     4,815       5,161
21-Nov-17       5,312     4,645       4,978
22-Nov-17       5,443     4,760       5,101
24-Nov-17       5,372     4,697       5,034
27-Nov-17       5,315     4,648       4,981
28-Nov-17       5,266     4,604       4,935
29-Nov-17       5,219     4,563       4,891
30-Nov-17       5,062     4,427       4,744
01-Dec-17       4,356     3,809       4,082
04-Dec-17       4,089     3,576       3,832
05-Dec-17       4,101     3,586       3,844
06-Dec-17       4,293     3,754       4,024
07-Dec-17       4,913     4,296       4,604
08-Dec-17       4,997     4,370       4,684
11-Dec-17       5,136     4,491       4,814
12-Dec-17       5,250     4,590       4,920
13-Dec-17       5,298     4,633       4,966
14-Dec-17       5,575     4,875       5,225
15-Dec-17       5,688     4,974       5,331
18-Dec-17       5,351     4,679       5,015
19-Dec-17       5,403     4,725       5,064
20-Dec-17       5,617     4,911       5,264
21-Dec-17       5,968     5,218       5,593
22-Dec-17       6,109     5,342       5,726
26-Dec-17       6,523     5,704       6,114
27-Dec-17       6,807     5,953       6,380
28-Dec-17       7,248     6,338       6,793
29-Dec-17     10,198     8,917       9,557

 

NYC Cash Balance Monthly Detail

($ Millions)

Inflows Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sep-Dec-17
Opening Balance 6,812.87 8,005.53 7,101.01 4,744.42 6,812.87
Sales Tax 507.48 714.49 549.62 847.01 2,618.60
Utility Tax 24.54 24.54 24.54 24.54 98.18
Commercial Rent Tax 174.63 22.77 11.03 172.50 380.92
Personal Income Tax 1,088.23 915.93 643.18 1,009.95 3,657.30
General Corporation Tax 895.92 98.22 75.95 900.93 1,971.02
Banking Tax 80.61 0.75 4.15 277.09 362.61
Unincorporated Business Tax 419.96 55.46 25.92 212.30 713.64
Real Property Tax 888.71 1,061.88 198.01 5,921.59 8,070.18
Other Taxes 512.24 312.04 240.11 417.15 1,481.55
Less Refunds All Taxes -89.57 -89.57 -89.57 -89.57 -358.29
Total Taxes 4,502.76 3,116.51 1,682.94 9,693.50 18,995.71
Federal Welfare 115.66 71.16 169.82 252.12 608.75
Federal Education 16.66 21.21 11.35 50.10 99.32
Federal Community Development 9.59 9.48 10.21 14.48 43.76
Federal Other 128.35 103.74 147.86 112.71 492.66
Total Federal Aid 270.27 205.58 339.24 429.41 1,244.50
NYS Welfare 16.97 50.27 92.29 109.01 268.54
NYS Health 28.64 43.41 0.64 29.87 102.55
NYS Education 990.39 264.17 527.06 873.43 2,655.05
NYS Higher Education 4.83 324.80 2.32 1.51 333.45
NYS Other 38.39 12.12 47.56 53.99 152.07
Total New York State Aid 1,079.22 694.76 669.88 1,067.81 3,511.66
NYS Revenue Sharing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Intergovernmental Aid 2.00 0.00 0.00 56.79 58.79
Total Intergovernmental 2.00 0.00 0.00 56.79 58.79
Water Board 105.53 157.73 234.50 234.50 732.25
Interest Income 9.81 9.81 9.81 9.81 39.25
Fines and Forfeitures 88.11 88.11 88.11 88.11 352.42
Miscellaneous Revenue 160.53 202.18 231.18 142.67 736.56
Senior College Tuition and Fees 0.15 159.56 0.15 0.15 160.02
Capital Interest 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.44
Housing Revenue 3.47 3.47 3.47 3.47 13.90
Total Miscellaneous 367.71 620.97 567.34 478.82 2,034.84
Prior Federal Aid 522.80 289.33 325.54 120.05 1,257.72
Prior NYS Aid 207.91 55.29 74.24 76.08 413.53
Total Federal And NYS Prior Aid 730.70 344.63 399.79 196.13 1,671.25
Balance Sheet Inflows 16.72 16.72 16.72 16.72 66.88
Federal/State Capital 61.93 44.93 86.41 51.39 244.67
Transfers from Capital Proceeds 875.00 675.00 725.00 325.00 2,600.00
Payroll Taxes Inflows 168.20 167.19 165.74 216.40 717.52
Seasonal Borrowing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Operating Inflow 384.48 384.48 384.48 384.48 1,537.90
Total Other Inflows 1,506.33 1,288.32 1,378.35 993.98 5,166.98
Total Inflows 8,458.99 6,270.75 5,037.54 12,916.45 32,683.72

 

NYC Cash Balance Monthly Detail

($ Millions)

Outflows Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Sep-Dec-17
Payroll 1,510.10 1,500.90 1,487.71 1,938.54 6,437.26
Pensions 783.78 783.78 783.78 783.78 3,135.12
Social Security 167.03 168.51 165.78 167.03 668.35
Health Plan 366.87 366.87 366.87 510.31 1,610.94
Other PS 97.45 97.45 97.45 97.45 389.81
Total PS 2,925.24 2,917.51 2,901.60 3,497.12 12,241.47
PA 255.29 255.29 255.29 255.29 1,021.17
MA 374.15 377.46 504.67 384.01 1,640.29
Other DOSS 219.54 209.48 229.55 234.65 893.22
HHC 75.00 94.93 89.75 25.46 285.13
TA 0.00 0.06 0.00 35.06 35.12
HA 0.43 0.54 0.00 1.42 2.39
Lump Sum 203.25 251.56 186.52 235.77 877.10
Vendor Payments 1,361.73 1,301.58 1,268.73 1,738.51 5,670.56
Other OTPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total OTPS 2,489.39 2,490.90 2,534.51 2,910.18 10,424.97
City Capital 585.61 407.84 621.94 533.27 2,148.66
Other Outflow Capital 207.67 26.96 215.66 104.49 554.78
GO Debt Service Funding 0.00 266.49 68.19 0.00 334.68
NYCTFA Debt Service Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other Debt Service Funding 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Repay Seasonal Borrowing 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Payroll Taxes Outflow 821.29 828.46 815.10 821.24 3,286.10
Other Outflows 237.12 237.12 237.12 237.12 948.47
Total Other Outflows 1,851.69 1,766.87 1,958.02 1,696.11 7,272.69
Total Outflows 7,266.32 7,175.28 7,394.12 8,103.40 29,939.13
Net Flow 1,192.66 -904.53 -2,356.59 4,813.04 2,744.59
Ending Balance 8,005.53 7,101.01 4,744.42 9,557.46 9,557.46

 

Prepared by Irina Livshits, Division Chief

Published by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, Bureau of Budget

Preston Niblack, Deputy Comptroller for Budget