Projection September 2018

New York City Cash Balance Projection

Last Updated September 4, 2018

NYC Cash Balances ($ in Millions)

On December 4, 2017, NYC’s cash balance hit a low point of $1.022 billion, $4.399 billion below the seasonal low in FY17, and the lowest cash balance since FY10.  The slump resulted from sluggish property, corporate income, and mortgage and real property transfer tax revenues and unusually low welfare aid receipts from Federal and State governments in the first half of FY18.  However, in the second half of FY18, cash balances recovered sharply, supported by strong gains in business and personal income tax revenues, in part because of taxpayer behavior in response to the federal tax changes passed at the end of 2017.  Currently cash balances continue to benefit from the robust local economy, record-low unemployment rate, higher wages, and strong stock market returns.  As of August 31, 2018 the cash balance stands at $7.462 billion, compared to $6.813 billion at the same time last year.

The accompanying updated projection outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from September 4 to December 31, 2018, and incorporates guidance provided in the FY19 Adopted Budget.

Our projection indicates that current year balances will exceed last year’s levels. We project that cash flow balances will average $6.245 billion during the next four months compared to $4.735 billion during the same time last year.

The City’s economy keeps on growing, and we expect that we will have enough cash for day-to-day operations during the leanest part of the year.  As has been the pattern for many years, the annual cash balance low will occur during early to mid-December and will measure between $2.6 billion and $3.1 billion.

The projection incorporates the added expense associated with a new DC37 contract agreement, covering approximately 100,000 employees.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.

Inflows - NYC Cash Balances Monthly Detail ($ in Millions)

Outflows - NYC Cash Balances Monthly Detail ($ in Millions)

Prepared by Irina Livshits, Division Chief

Published by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, Bureau of Budget

Preston Niblack, Deputy Comptroller for Budget