Projection June 2018

New York City Cash Balance Projection

Last Updated June 1, 2018

NYC Cash Balances ($ in Millions)

Over the last twelve months, the City’s cash balances have experienced remarkable volatily.  On July 3rd, NYC started FY18 with $9.341 billion in cash, $2.378 billion below the opening balance in FY17.  As the year progressed, the gap between FY17 and FY18 cash figures continued to grow, reaching $5.139 billion on October 10th.  On December 4th, the cash balance hit a low point of $1.022 billion, $4.399 billion below the seasonal low in FY17, and the lowest cash balance since FY10.

Cash balances recovered sharply in late December as New Yorkers rushed to pay their income and property taxes before federal law changes on state and local tax deductions took effect.  In the beginning of 2018, cash balances rose above our expectations, benefiting from a boost in business and personal income tax revenues, due to a strong local economy, strong stock market performance, and changes in tax law.  As of May 31, 2018 the cash balance stands at $8.304 billion, compared to $9.283 billion at the same time last year.

The accompanying updated projection outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from June 1 to September 28, 2018, and incorporates guidance provided in the FY19 Executive Budget.

NYC’s economy remains healthy, and we expect that the City’s cash position will remain strong in the near future.

We project that cash flow balances will average $7.771 billion during the next four months compared to $8.778 billion during the same time last year.

The projection indicates a fiscal year-end (June 29, 2018) closing balance in the range of $8.1 billion to $9.2 billion, compared to $9.3 billion in FY17, $11.7 billion in FY16, $9.5 billion in FY15, $9.9 billion in FY14, and $7.9 billion in FY13.

The Executive budget projects a prepayment of debt service in the amount of $3.652 billion. Based on our estimates, we believe that the final prepayment amount will increase to at least $4.237 billion and we have modeled this estimate into our model. We have also modeled a disbursement of $2.485 billion into the Retiree Health Benefit Trust (RHBT) to cover the cost of current retiree health benefits.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.

Inflows - NYC Cash Balances Monthly Detail ($ in Millions)

Outflows - NYC Cash Balances Monthly Detail ($ in Millions)

Prepared by Irina Livshits, Division Chief

Published by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, Bureau of Budget

Preston Niblack, Deputy Comptroller for Budget