Projection December 2018

New York City Cash Balance Projection

Last Updated December 3, 2018

NYC Cash Balances ($ in Millions)

During the most recent trailing twelve-month period, NYC’s cash balance hit a low point of $1.022 billion on December 4, 2017, well below the seasonal low of $5.420 billion in FY17.  Since then, cash balances caught up to year-ago levels, driven by strong gains in personal income, sales, and business tax revenue.  Cash balances continue to benefit from the solid labor market, higher wages, and the strong performance of the financial services sector, a key driver of the City’s economy.  As of November 30, 2018, the cash balance stands at $2.810 billion, compared to $2.139 billion at the same time last year.

The accompanying updated projection outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from December 3, 2018 to March 29, 2019, and incorporates guidance provided in the FY19 November Plan.

Our projection indicates that current year balances will be similar to last year’s balances. We project that cash flow balances will average $6.708 billion during the next four months compared to $6.594 billion during the same time last year.

The FY19 cash balance low point will occur during the first week of December and will measure $2.0 to $2.3 billion, above the last year’s low of $1.022 billion.  In the last ten years, the lowest seasonal low occurred in FY10 and measured $449 million.

The City’s economy continues to be robust.  The strong demand for labor has pushed the City’s unemployment rate to the lowest level on record.  We expect that the City will continue to benefit from strong tax revenues.  At the same time, the City is facing increased costs from recently settled contracts with DC37 and other labor unions and increased spending on social services, housing, and other programs.  In the near future, the City’s economic expansion should persist, but any sudden deceleration in economic growth could trigger a setback, putting pressure on the City’s cash position.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.

Inflows - NYC Cash Balances Monthly Detail ($ in Millions)

Outflows - NYC Cash Balances Monthly Detail ($ in Millions)

Prepared by Irina Livshits, Division Chief

Published by the NYC Comptroller’s Office, Bureau of Budget

Preston Niblack, Deputy Comptroller for Budget