Accounting for Asylum Seeker Services

The Comptroller’s Office analyzes the City’s spending on asylum seeker services to increase oversight over these large expenses. Asylum seeker costs are primarily driven by two variables: the number of households in shelter and the average per diem rate of providing shelter and services.

Funding for Services to People Seeking Asylum, OMB Financial Plans

Source: Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget

In the November 2024 Financial Plan, OMB adjusted the FY 2025 estimated amount to reflect lower year to date expenditures through October. In its December 13^th Annual State of the City’s Economy and Finances, the Comptroller’s Office projected total FY 2025 spending of $3.0 billion, $1.59 billion less than the Administration’s budget estimates of $4.37 billion.

Funding for Services to People Seeking Asylum, June 2024 Financial Plan

Source: Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget

Spending

The City of New York spent $1.47 billion for asylum seeker shelter and services in FY 2023, with $438 million covered by the State. The City spent $3.75 billion in FY 2024, with $1.31 billion covered by the State. Through December 31, 2024, the City committed $2.48 billion in FY 2025, with $1.37 billion in planned reimbursements from the State.

AS Spending ($ in Millions)

Note: Liquidated expenditures are through 12/31/2024. Administration Estimate represents the Administration’s estimated expenditure amount on asylum seekers as reported to the City Council. Liquidated represents the expenditure amount that has been distributed, including drawdowns of the prior year payable. Remaining Prior Year Payables are the FY 2023 and FY 2024 payable amounts that are yet to be cleared. Remaining Committed is the expenditure amount shown in FMS and includes pre-encumbrances, encumbrances, and unliquidated amounts. The Remaining Budget in FY 2025 is the total amount included in the most recent City budget for asylum seekers less commitments and liquidations.

Source: NYC Financial Management System, NYC Terms and Conditions for budget adoption.

The ongoing reconciliation of accrual documents may reflect up to $462 million in savings from FY 2023 estimated spending.

Over the past two fiscal years liquidations (cash paid) for asylum seeker expenses have not kept pace with commitments. According to the City’s Financial Management System, total FY 2023 commitments for asylum seeker expenses were $1.47 billion as of the close of that fiscal year. However, only $988.5 million had been liquidated as of October 2024, leaving open payables of $482 million across 10 agencies – primarily at DHS with $381 million open in November and H+H with $89 million.

DSS has notified the Comptroller’s Office that a portion of the DHS unliquidated asylum seeker expenses for FY 2023 had been recorded in non-asylum seeker budget codes.

Under the City’s accrual method of budgeting, when prior year expenses are taken down in a closed fiscal year they are recognized as savings in the current year.

For FY 2024, $3.19 billion was liquidated and $3.77 billion committed, with open payables of $580 million as of October 20^th. The Comptroller’s Office continues to monitor these costs.

State and Federal Funding

The total amount of State aid from State FY (SFY) 2023 to SFY 2026 is $4.16 billion, unchanged as of the SFY 2025 mid-year budget update. OMB did not adjust State funding in the November Plan, despite decreasing total expected spending for FY 2025: it includes $1.32 billion for FY 2025 and maintains its placeholders for State funding in the outyears of the Plan ($1 billion in FY 2026, $1 billion in FY 2027, and $350 million in FY 2028).

The November Plan adds approximately $118 million in Federal Emergency Management Administration (FEMA) funding under the Shelter and Services Program (SSP) – $59.3 million in FY 2025, and $58.5 million in FY 2026. The City previously had no federal funds budgeted in either fiscal year. The June 2024 Financial Plan included $157 million for FY 2024, which was reduced to $119.6 million at the fiscal close, for total anticipated federal funding of $237.3 million. As of November 25^th, 2024, the City has received $74.4 million in federal funding for all years ($25.5 million for SSP, and $49 million for EFSP).

Projections of Asylum Seeker Shelter Census

The Comptroller’s Office also updated projections using shelter census figures from between September 1^st, 2024, and November 17^th, 2024. This period was chosen because it captures recent entrance and exit trends, including lower border crossings following the June 4^th, 2024, Biden Administration rule change, and increased exits from City shelter in recent months. The Comptroller’s Office projections assume that the daily exit rate of 0.3 percent observed between September 1^st and November 17^th continues to hold over the forecast horizon, resulting in the trend seen in the Updated Comptroller Projection of Asylum Seeker Shelter Census chart.

Updated Comptroller Projection of Asylum Seeker Shelter Census (Households)

Source:  Office of the New York City Comptroller; Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget

Note: Shelter census includes all households seeking asylum in City-funded shelters including those in DHS-operated shelters, HERRCs, and other facilities. The number of households is an estimate based on actual shelter census and average household sizes provided by the Office of Management and Budget.

Note: A household can be a family with children, adults living together as a family (adult parent with an adult child or adults living as partners without children), or a single adult living alone.

OMB has not updated their census projection since August 2023, nor did they revise their FY 2025 per diem assumption of $352 (the daily cost of providing shelter and other services per household). Instead, OMB stated that savings in this Plan are driven by underspending year to date, stemming from the difference in the actual shelter census and the projected shelter census. Information provided in the asylum seeker report to the City Council shows that the cumulative per diem (spending from July 1^st, 2022, to date) is $373.

Using the year-end FY 2024 reported actuals of $3.75 billion, the Comptroller’s Office calculates a per diem of $373, similar to OMB’s reported per diem levels. The Comptroller’s Office assumes per diem costs should decrease as the City shifts away from emergency contracting to competitive procurement. Applying a 5 percent reduction to the calculated FY 2024 per diem of $373 yields an estimated FY 2025 per diem of $354. This amount is then reduced again by 5 percent in FY 2026 for a per diem of $336. In FY 2027 and FY 2028 the Comptroller’s Office estimates $315, which the Office assumes as the floor for the daily rate for emergency shelter provision as the City moves to DHS-managed emergency shelters. (See the Comptroller’s Analysis of Hotel and Shelter Rates for further discussion.)

Combining the population and cost components, the Comptroller’s Office estimates a total cost of $3.0 billion in FY 2025, declining to $948 million in FY 2028. This results in a lower total cost than currently budgeted by OMB for FY 2025 through FY 2027, by $1.35 billion, $2.30 billion and $1.90 billion, respectively, but a higher estimate in FY 2028 (by $98 million in increased costs). Refer to the Comptroller’s Annual State of the City’s Economy and Finances 2024 for more details.

[1] https://www.nydailynews.com/2024/03/14/nyc-finally-unlocks-rest-of-over-100m-in-federal-migrant-aid-after-months-of-paperwork-delays/