New York City Cash Balance Projection December 1, 2024

New York City’s economy continues to benefit from a buoyant stock market, rebounding tourism, and resilient consumer spending.

The City’s tax revenue continues to increase.  The City collected over $15 billion in Real Property Tax revenue in June and July 2024, an increase of $663 million from the same period last year. According to the final FY 2025 property tax assessment roll, citywide taxable billable assessed value, the portion of market value (as estimated by the City’s Department of Finance) to which tax rates are applied, increased by 4.4 percent to $299.432 billion.

In the first quarter of FY 2025, Personal Income Tax, including the Pass-Through Entity Tax (PTET), and business income taxes grew 7.5% and 4.8%, respectively.  The Sales Tax grew by 2%, less than inflation in the NYC metropolitan area.

Hotel Occupancy Tax revenue increased 11.2%. The hotel occupancy rate climbed to 91% in October 2024, the highest level since October 2018, and average daily room rates have rebounded strongly and are currently above pre-pandemic levels, even after adjusting for inflation. As of October 2024, the revenue per available room (RevPar) in NYC stood at $353, compared to $313 in October 2023 and $277 in October 2022.[1]

The City’s expenditures reflect growing costs of providing public assistance, including rental and cash assistance. The rate of growth accelerated, initially after Covid-19 era unemployment benefits expired in September 2022, with growth continuing with the expansion of eligibility for asylum applicants among other reasons. At the same time, it’s worth noting, that while growing as a proportion, refugees and asylum seekers make up only 4% of all cash assistance cases.  Nearly 575,000 New Yorkers received public assistance in September 2024, the most in at least five years and up 48%, or 186,732 recipients, from September 2020.[2]

In addition, the City is facing higher costs associated with providing shelter and services to asylum seekers currently in shelters and Humanitarian Emergency Response and Relief Centers (HERRCs), which is partially offset by State and, to a lesser extent, Federal support. To date, the City has received $74 million in Federal funds and almost $1.1 billion in State funds for asylum seekers.

The City’s cash balances usually dwindle in late November to early December, before the arrival of property tax payments which are due on January 1.  This November, the City’s cash balances fell below the record highs reached last year but remained strong due to the receipt of Covid-19 relief funds and high capital transfers.  In 1Q 2025, the City received $2.438 billion in COVID-19-related aid and COVID-19 FEMA reimbursements.  The majority of these funds, $2.265 billion, were allocated to NYC under the American Rescue Plan and Elementary and Secondary School Emergency Relief (ARP-ESSER) Plan. The City received in $6.354 billion in capital transfers between September and November 2024, compared to $3.589 billion the prior year.

During the last 12 months, cash balances have averaged $10.196 billion, compared to $12.133 billion at the same time last year.  New York City is starting December 1, 2024 with $5.093 billion in cash, below last year’s figure by $261 million.  The City’s cash balance includes $1.964 billion in the Revenue Stabilization Fund (RSF), the City’s rainy-day fund.

For more information, please see the accompanying 1Q FY 2025 Quarterly Cash Report.

Projected Cash Balances (December 2^nd– March 31^st)

The updated projection below outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from December 2, 2024 to March 31, 2025, incorporating guidance provided in the FY25 November Plan.

Projected cash balances

The City’s cash position remains strong.  December 2024-March 2025 average cash balances are expected to be lower than in FYs 2023 and 2024, but significantly higher than in FY 2022.

In the last three years the annual cash balance low occurred on December 1^st.  We expect that this year’s cash low will also occur around the same time, and will measure between $4.645 billion and $5.323 billion.  The seasonal low measured $5.223 billion in FY 2024, $3.966 billion in FY 2023, $1.338 billion in FY 2022, and $2.143 billion in FY 2021.

Overall, cash balances are estimated to average $10.115 billion during the next four months compared to $10.610 billion during the same time last year.

[1] Costar

[2] https://www.nyc.gov/assets/hra/downloads/pdf/ca_recipients.pdf