New York City Cash Balance Projection September 2026

At the close of FY 2026 (on June 30, 2026), the City recorded an end-of-year cash balance of $16.171 billion, compared to $12.229 billion the year prior. The actual year-end balance was significantly higher than anticipated, primarily due to stronger-than-expected Business Corporation Tax and General Corporation Tax collections, and the deferral of the City’s customary year-end payment to the Retiree Health Benefits Trust (RHBT) for FY 2026 pay-as-you-go retiree health benefits. The RHBT deferred payment totaled $3.713 billion. For more information, see the Interim Update to June 2026 forecast, published in July. Overall, daily cash balances during FY 2026 averaged $8.435 billion, compared to $10.882 billion in FY 2025.

During FY 2026, the City collected $144.787 billion in revenue, $5.122 billion more than the prior year, despite a significant decline in Covid-19-related aid and FEMA reimbursements. The City received only $660 million in COVID-19-related aid and COVID-19 FEMA reimbursements in FY26, compared to $5.239 billion over the same period last fiscal year.

Total tax revenue measured $87.017 billion, 6.9% higher than in FY 2025.  The City’s economy remained stable, despite persistent inflation, continued low job creation outside the healthcare sector, and a sharp rise in oil prices amid the war in Iran. Tax collections were bolstered by strong stock market performance and rapid growth in Wall Street profits, which contributed significantly to increases in personal and business income taxes’ revenues. At the same time, NYC’s office market continued to strengthen, reflecting solid demand and a gradual reduction in the supply of lower-end properties. For more information, please see our August Economic Newsletter.

Strong revenues enabled the City to fund $148.730 billion in spending in FY26 while also prepaying $1.959 billion toward FY27 expenses. The prepayment was lower than in each of the previous four years and consisted of $800 million of General Obligation (GO) debt service and $1.159 billion of Transitional Finance Authority (TFA) debt service. For a full analysis of the cash position in FY 2026 and its last quarter, see the accompanying 4Q 2026 Quarterly Cash Report.

During the 12 months ending on August 31st, cash balances averaged $9.458 billion, compared to $10.867 billion at the same time last year. New York City started September 1, 2026 with $10.997 billion in cash, above last year’s figure by $6.043 billion.  As of September 9^th, the cash balance stood at $13.732 billion, compared to $5.134 billion at the same time last year.

The cash balance on September 9^th was above the levels projected in the Interim Update by approximately $4.2 billion. Below are the main factors explaining the variance:

1. Tax revenues. Preliminary July and August collections, which remain subject to revision, indicate that combined revenues from the Real Property Tax, Personal Income Tax (including the Pass-Through Entity Tax), General Corporation Tax, and Sales Tax exceeded projections by more than $450 million.
2. Capital spending and reimbursements. Reimbursements from bond sale proceeds for capital spending were higher than previously anticipated by approximately $1.6 billion. However, most of this variance is due to timing and is expected to drop to approximately $400 million by December. City-funded capital expenditures were approximately $350 million below budgeted levels, also contributing to the higher cash balance.
3. State aid. On August 13, the City received $500 million in one-time, unrestricted State Aid that had been assumed in the Interim Update to be received in October. On September 4, the City received approximately $634 million in New York State aid for asylum seekers, further strengthening its cash balance.
4. Contractual advances to nonprofit organizations. Local Law 2025/156 requires, with certain exceptions, 50 percent advance payments for most human services contracts, while Local Law 2026/011 requires quarterly advance payments for certain Department of Homeless Services (DHS) and Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice (MOCJ) contracts beginning in 2027. In late June, the City announced that it would make 50 percent advance payments to all human services providers at the beginning of July. The Interim Update assumed that most of these advance payments would be disbursed in July and August but actual payments have lagged, primarily due to late contract registrations for early childhood education and other providers. The Interim Update assumed approximately $4.5 billion in contractual advances to nonprofit organizations at the beginning of FY 2027 (an assumption broadly comparable to the Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget’s). Actual payments were approximately $3.5 billion.

The City’s cash balance includes $1.974 billion in the Revenue Stabilization Fund (RSF), the City’s rainy-day fund, inclusive of an expected end-of-year General Fund surplus of $5 million. The majority of funds, $1.455 billion, were allocated to the RSF in FY 2022.

Projected Cash Balances (September 10^st – December 31^st)

The updated projection outlines expected cash balances in the NYC central treasury from September 10 to December 31, 2026. This forecast assumes continued, though slower, economic growth and the receipt of federal revenues as budgeted and in accordance with existing funding agreements and schedules. The economic outlook remains subject to uncertainty, including risks stemming from the unpredictable federal policy environment, geopolitical instability and elevated oil prices, and the impact of artificial intelligence, as highlighted in our Office’s Comments on NYC’s FY 2027 Adopted Budget.

The cash balance typically declines after the receipt of July property tax payments at the beginning of the fiscal year. Our projection shows that, as in previous years, the annual cash balance low will occur in early December and could measure between $7.419 billion and $8.816 billion, higher than previous seasonal lows of $3.001 billion in FY 2026, $4.602 billion in FY 2025, and $5.223 billion in FY 2024. The higher balance, compared to prior years, is largely due to the delayed RHBT payment as well as the higher revenues relative to expenses received to date. With the disbursement of the RHBT payment assumed to take place in December, the forecast period ends with a balance projected in the range of $8.145 to $9.678 billion, between the levels recorded in FY 2025 and FY 2026. Overall, cash flow balances are estimated to average $11.481 billion during the next four months compared to $5.631 billion during the same period last year.

This forecast revises the timing of advance payments to nonprofit organizations. As of September 3, the City has disbursed $3.5 billion in advance payments to human services organizations, leaving approximately $1 billion to be disbursed in the coming months.

Payroll expenses are expected to rise by $1.095 billion in FY 2027 compared to the previous year, driven by collective bargaining agreements and higher headcount, particularly within the Department of Education to reach compliance with the class size mandate.

The Interim Forecast assumed a large payment by the City on behalf of NYC Health + Hospitals (H+H) for the local share of the State FY 2026 State Directed Payment would take place in October.[1]  Given the uncertainty of that timing, this forecast spreads the payment across October through December. If the City payment is not approved by CMS within this timeframe, the City will likely need to make budgeted subsidy payments to H+H to support its cashflow needs instead, which the current forecast assumes will arise later in the fiscal year.

Capital expenditures to date have been lower than projected; the forecast assumes that expenditures will accelerate over the course of the year. The projection assumes that $6.807 billion in bond proceeds will be transferred to the General Fund between September and December 2026, to offset $6.076 billion in capital expenditures. A significant $2.8 billion transfer of bond proceeds is anticipated for November 4, ahead of the period when the City typically reaches its lowest cash balance. Over time, capital expenditures and the respective reimbursements are expected to offset one another.

These changes resulted in a net increase of the cash balance at the end of December by approximately $2 billion, relative to the previous forecast.

Based on our projection, the City has sufficient cash to sustain its operations, and we don’t forecast a need to issue short-term debt in FY 2027.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.

Endnotes

[1] The State Directed Payment program is described in more detail in the Comptroller’s October 2025 Economic Newsletter. The first payment for State FY 2025 was made in the third quarter of FY 2026 as described in that Quarterly Cash Report.