New York City Cash Balance Projection June 1, 2025

The City’s economy has remained stable despite ongoing challenges brought by the new federal administration, including tariff uncertainty, reduced immigration, and federal spending cuts and pauses.

During the first three quarters of FY 2025, the City collected $105.567 billion in revenues and incurred $102.008 billion in expenditures, for a net gain of $3.559 billion. This year’s revenues have grown 10.2%, or $9.800 billion from the same period last fiscal year.  At the same time, expenditures increased 7.4%, or $6.997 billion. Because revenues exceeded expenditures, cash balances rebounded to year-ago levels in December 2024 and have since surpassed last year’s values.

In our previous Cash Letter, we projected that cash balances would be mostly in line with last year’s figures for the remainder of FY25. However, capital transfers came in significantly higher than anticipated, totaling $5.246 billion between February and May 2025. While capital expenditures are fully reimbursed over the long term, capital transfers exceeded capital expenditures by $1.072 billion, or 25.7%, over the period.

Tax collections grew 10.3% due to strong personal income and business income tax receipts fueled in part by strong corporate profitability, especially among Wall Street firms, and continued gains in tourism.  In addition, both the commercial and residential real estate markets have begun to show signs of recovery this year.

At the same time, the City’s spending keeps climbing. The number of New Yorkers receiving public assistance has grown. 595,511 New Yorkers received public assistance in March 2025, the most in at least five years, and up 220,476 recipients (58.8%) from March 2021.[1] The increase in social services expenditures is also due in part to the provision of shelter and services to asylum seekers, as well as rental and childcare assistance, and shelter for non-asylum seekers.   In addition, the City is spending more on the 3K education and on special education Carter Cases.

In May the City’s cash balances surged due to the receipt of $2.661 billion in capital transfers. On May 30, 2025, the cash balance measured $12.434 billion, $2.887 billion higher than at the same time last year. The cash total includes the Revenue Stabilization Fund (RSF) balance of $1.964 billion.

During the last twelve months, cash balances averaged $10.711 billion, versus $11.104 billion during the same period last year.

For more information, please see the accompanying 3Q FY 2025 Quarterly Cash Report.

[1] https://www.nyc.gov/assets/hra/downloads/pdf/ca_recipients.pdf

Projected Cash Balances (June 2nd – June30st)

The projection outlined below shows the expected cash balances in the NYC Central Treasury for the period June 2 to September 30, 2025, and incorporates guidance provided in the FY 2026 Executive Budget and the Comptroller’s response. This forecast is based on an assumption of slow economic growth and that all anticipated federal revenues will be received in accordance with existing funding agreements and schedules. However, as noted in the Comptroller’s Report on the Executive Budget released last week, the current economic climate is particularly uncertain, and the probability of a recession has increased.

Projected cash balances

The City’s cash position is strong. Cash balances typically increase sharply in late June to early July due to arrival of property tax receipts. The projection indicates a fiscal year-end (June 30, 2025) closing balance in the range of $13.777 billion to $15.787 billion, compared to $10.410 billion in FY 2024, $12.387 billion in FY 2023, $8.2 billion in FY 2022, $8.5 billion in FY 2021 and $6.6 billion in FY 2020.

The May 2025 Financial Plan projects a prepayment of debt service in the amount of $2.950 billion, which includes $606 million of General Obligation (GO) debt service and $2.344 billion of Transitional Finance Authority Future Tax Secured (TFA FTS) debt service. In our review of the May 2025 Financial Plan, we did not identify any surplus funds to suggest that the prepayment amount will increase. Prepayments have been declining since FY23. Prepayments totaled $4.397 billion in FY 2024, $5.478 billion in FY 2023, and $6.114 billion in FY 2022.

The May 2025 Financial Plan also assumes that in June the City will pay $3.616 billion into the Retiree Health Benefits Trust (RHBT) for FY 2025 pay-as-you-go retiree health and welfare benefits. Last year’s payment into the RHBT equaled $2.794 billion for FY 2024 benefits.

Going forward, our forecast indicates a significant decline in cash balances beginning in early FY 2026, with September levels projected to closely align with those seen in FY 2024 and FY 2022.

An influx of federal Covid funds lifted the City’s cash balances in the last two years but the flow of aid is going to dwindle going forward.

The New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) has approved a premium rate increase of 12.18 percent for one of the City’s primary health insurance plans, the Health Insurance Plan of Greater New York HMO Preferred (HIP-HMO). According to its administrative code, the City pays for health insurance at the HIP-HMO rate. This cash forecast assumes the incorporation of this higher rate although it is not yet fully incorporated into the Executive Budget. Pay-as-you-go health insurance costs for current employees are projected to increase to an estimated $10.1 billion in FY 2026, more than $1 billion more than prior year expenditures. See the Comptroller’s Fiscal Note on this topic for more information.

Public assistance costs, including rental and cash assistance, are expected to continue to grow. However, rising public assistance costs will be partially offset by declining costs associated with providing shelter and services to asylum seekers in shelters and Humanitarian Emergency Response and Relief Centers (HERRCs).

In April, the City announced that $5 billion in advance payments will be made to City-contracted nonprofit providers, up from $2.8 billion in initial advances issued during FY25, and this increase is reflected in our vendor payments forecast.

The New York State FY 2025 Executive budget included an amendment to the Transitional Finance Authority (TFA) Act, increasing the City’s borrowing capacity by a total of $14 billion by July 1, 2025. The City’s capital program grew from $12.498 billion in FY 2024 to $14.317 billion in FY 2025 and is expected to be $17.341 billion in FY 2026. Our forecast incorporates rising City’s capital expenditures, offset by higher capital transfers.

The City recently closed two bond sales: GO 2025 H and TFA FTS 2025 I. Most of the proceeds from these bond sales will be transferred into the General Fund in early June. The City will resume its bond issuance program in early FY 2026. Overall, we project that $5.173 billion in bond proceeds will be moved into the General Fund between June and September 2025.

The cash balances are expected to average $11.435 billion during the next four months, compared to $9.808 billion at the same time last year. Overall, the City has sufficient cash to sustain its operations and does not anticipate issuing short-term debt in FY 2026.

Projection details are in the following pages of this document.