New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

Our kids are back in school, Broadway turned the lights back on, and by almost every measure, New York City’s economic recovery continues. As a reminder, COVID-19 vaccine booster shots are now available to thousands of at-risk New Yorkers; be sure check your eligibility and schedule your dose without delay.

And a reminder, we are now a monthly, so look for us again on Monday, November 1st. Until next month—be safe and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

Labor Markets

• Seasonally adjusted New York City private employment grew by 26,452 in August. Private employment has rebounded 453,000 from lows of April 2020, but remains 469,000 below the peak of February 2020 (Table 1).

Table 1: Seasonally Adjusted New York City Employment, by Industry (1,000s)

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB

• Newly released data for the first quarter of 2021 from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages shows wages fell in low-wage sectors of the economy, but has risen rapidly in higher wage sectors.
• First quarter employment in food service and accommodation was down 49% from the first quarter of 2020, and total wages were down 52% (Table 2).
• Job losses in higher wage sectors of the economy were smaller — 7% in information and 3% in financial activities – but total wages paid in these sectors grew quickly, with year-over-year increases of 7% in information, and 12% in financial activities. Average wages in these sectors grew even more quickly than total wages, suggesting job losses were concentrated among lower-paid office and clerical workers made redundant by remote work.

Table 2: Employment and Wages in High and Low-Wage Sectors of the New York City Economy, Q1 of 2019, 2020, and 2021

SOURCE: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages via NY DOL

• New York City’s unemployment rate declined to a seasonally adjusted 10.2% in August, down from 10.5% in July, and the sixth straight monthly decline (Chart 1). Unemployment among black (10.5%) and Hispanic (12.8%) New Yorkers remains above the City average.
• The share of New Yorkers participating in the labor force, either working or looking for work (not shown) held steady at a seasonally adjusted rate of 60.7%, up from a low of 54.7% in May of 2020, and equal to the pre-pandemic rate of 60.7% in February 2020.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Seasonally adjusted New York City unemployment rate from NY DOL, 3-month average by race/ethnicity from the Current Population Survey (not seasonally adjusted)

• The latest data from Burning Glass show continuing demand for New York City workers, with overall New York City job ads between September 3^rd and 24^th 17% above pre-pandemic levels (Chart 2).
• Job ads are most elevated in education and health services (35%) and leisure and hospitality (21%), and for positions requiring lower levels of preparation/formal training (36%), such as cashiers, dishwashers, retail sales clerks, and electricians, as opposed to higher levels of preparation (14%), like engineers, accountants, and lawyers.
• According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) the number of unemployed job seekers per job opening in the Northeast of the U.S, a figure not separately available for New York City, fell to 0.9 in July, just off the all-time low of 0.8, and down from 3.1 in July 2020 (see link).

Chart 2

SOURCE: Burning Glass via Tracktherecovery.org

• The expiration of pandemic unemployment insurance programs led to a dramatic decline in the number of people receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) and Extended Benefits (EB) in New York State, to 137,621 the week of September 11^th, 2021, down from 1,554,933 the week prior (Chart 3).
• Continuing claims for regular unemployment insurance fell to 214,152 the week of September 18^th, 2021, down from 223,830 the week prior. Data on pandemic programs is not yet available for the week of September 18^th.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

Real Estate Markets

• August data from Streeteasy.com show the number of apartments available for rent in New York City fell to 40,709 in August, continuing a steady decline from August 2020 (Chart 4).
• The median New York City asking rent rose to $2,700 in August, up from $2,675 in July, and lows of about $2,500 through the winter months.

Chart 4

SOURCE: Streeteasy.com

• Data from Douglas Elliman show the higher-end brokered apartment market strengthening across all metrics in August as well, with listed inventories falling to 8,201, from 11,794 in July.
• The number of new leases signed rose to 8,201 in August, up from 7,656 in July, and the pace of leasing continues to exceed pre-pandemic levels.

Table 3: Douglas Elliman Rental Matrix, Trends in High-End Residential Apartment Rentals

SOURCE: Elliman Report, August 2021, Manhattan Brooklyn and Queens Rentals.

*NOTE:  2021 data reflect expanded collection of listing data

• Driven by strong residential sales, real estate transaction volume has recovered from a dramatic decline in April 2020. The dollar value of residential sales (including 1-3 Family Homes, Coops and Condos) reached to over $41 billion in the first eight months of 2021 – 76% higher than the same period in 2020 and 18% above 2019 (Chart 5). Robust sales have also driven New York City transaction tax collections higher (see the City Finances section).
• Commercial real estate sales (including multifamily rental and commercial buildings) are, however, still well below pre-pandemic levels. Commercial sales were $12.5 billion in the first eight months of 2021, 50% below the same period in 2019, and 6.8% below the same period in 2020, although these figures do not take into account Google’s reported $2.1 billion office building purchase this fall.

Chart 5

SOURCE: Comptroller’s Analysis of Department of Finance Data

• While many sectors of the economy are rapidly recovering, a September 23^rd, 2021 report from the Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) shows that is not yet the case for New York City’s retail stores; retail rents fell across most Brooklyn retail corridors over the summer (see link).

Return to Office

• The latest data from Kastle Systems show New York City area office occupancy jumping to 28% in the second half of September, up from 18-20% earlier in the month, and the highest since March 2020. However, occupancy remains lower than all but San Jose (26%) and San Francisco (21%) among major metropolitan areas.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Kastle Systems, weekdays excluding Federal holidays through September 22^nd, 2021.

• The September return to school coincided with an increase in time spent in transit and away from home (Chart 7).

Chart 7

SOURCE: GPS mobility data indexed to 1/3/2020 to 2/6/2020, from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.

• In recent weeks, the MTA’s subways, buses and commuter rails have carried the most passengers since March 2020 (Chart 8). During the week of Monday, September 20^th through Friday, September 24^th, daily volumes averaged 3.0 million on the subway, 1.5 million on MTA buses, and 142,720 on the Long Island Rail Road (LIRR), 119,660 on Metro-North (MNR). Despite the progress, average weekday subway ridership is still close to half of pre-pandemic levels.
• The slow return to transit continues to pale in comparison to vehicle traffic on the MTA’s bridges and tunnels, which has been close to pre-pandemic levels since the summer.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

Business and Tourism

• Newly released data show the second quarter was another strong one for Wall Street firms, with quarterly profits of just over $13.037 billion (Chart 9). Profits were down from both the previous quarter, and the same quarter last year, but remain well above of pre-pandemic levels.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Intercontinental Exchange, NYSE Member Firms Dealing with the Public

• Demand for New York City hotels held steady at 2.1 million rooms in August, well above pandemic lows of 850,000 in April 2020, but below pre-pandemic demand of 2.7 to 2.8 million rooms monthly.
• New York City revenue per available room (RevPAR) fell from approximately $130 in July, to about $120 in August, but has improved from pandemic lows.
• Despite an improvement in performance this summer, on a year-to-date basis through August 2021, occupancy is down 37%, and RevPAR down 54% compared to the same period in 2019 (not shown).

Chart 10

SOURCE: STR via CoStar

NOTE: Some fraction of pandemic period revenues is attributable to the City’s temporary housing of the homeless.

• While airports in the New York City region saw steady gains in passenger volumes in August, the recovery in nationwide air travel deteriorated, as the Delta variant caused severe outbreaks in some parts of the country (Chart 11). Nationwide, passenger volume was down 23% in August, as compared to 2019, a decline from 20% in July, while volume at airports in the New York City region was 38% below pre-pandemic levels in August, an improvement from 42% in July.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration.

• During August, 209,282 people visited Times Square, down 42% from 363,420 in August 2019 (Chart 12). The trend in pedestrian counts improved over July when traffic was down 48% compared to 2019.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.

City Finances

• In the first two months of the current 2022 fiscal year, tax revenue associated with the sales and mortgage recordings of real properties have rebounded strongly from FY 2021’s pandemic low.
• Overall Real Estate Transaction revenue from the Real Property Transfer Tax(RPTT) and the Mortgage Recording Tax (MRT) combined is higher than it was before the pandemic and just below the previous peak in FY 2019 (Table 4).

Table 4: New York City Real Property Transaction Tax Revenue, July and August of Fiscal Years 2019-2022 ($ Millions)

SOURCE: NYC OMB and FMS. Starting in FY 2020 the tax rates were increased on real property sales exceeding $1M.

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $7.44 billion as of Tuesday, September 29^th. At the same time last year, the City had $5.93 billion (Chart 13).
• Taking advantage of a provision in the federal CARES Act, the City has deferred payment of payroll taxes from April 2020, which has led to a net improvement in the City’s cash balances of approximately $1.35 billion. Deferrals ended in December 2020 and deferred payments will be due in 2 installments no later than December 2021 and December 2022. Deferred payments are accrued to the fiscal year in which they are due.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the fourth quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through December 31^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 13

Spotlight

Moving Back to the City

When COVID-19 hit New York City in the spring of 2020, businesses and schools abruptly closed, workers were laid off, sirens filled the air, and many New Yorkers – particularly in wealthier neighborhoods – fled to social distance in more spacious locations. While most of these initial exits were temporary, over the next year, the continuation of remote work and distance learning enabled people to live anywhere, causing a sustained exit of city residents throughout 2020 and into early 2021. Now, a year and half later, as documented by change of address forms recorded by the post office, these losses have finally reversed.

The United States Postal Service (USPS) publishes monthly data on temporary and permanent requests for a change of address, both domestic and abroad, including moves within the same municipality. A household moving within the same city would appear as both a move-out and a move-in. The data offers insight into general trends in migration and population but does not capture all population movements. USPS data excludes moves originating from outside the country – historically a significant source of new residents for New York City prior to COVID-related travel bans – as well as moves in which the person did not request mail forwarding services, for example a college student who can still receive mail at their home address.

Before the pandemic, in calendar year 2019, the USPS received 616,091 residential change of address request forms for a move from a New York City address and 525,559 forms for a move to a New York City address, including intracity moves, registering a net loss of 90,532. But in 2020, the USPS received 837,404 forms for residential move-outs and 534,142 forms for move-ins, resulting in a net loss of 303,262 or 3.3 times the loss in 2019.

Net losses peaked in March 2020 at the pandemic’s onset, as 79,793 residential move-out forms were filed, an increase of 65% over March 2019. At the same time, the number of net move-outs, including residential and business moves, recorded as “temporary,” i.e., the mover intends to move back within six months, jumped from close to zero in February 2020 to 28,625 the following month (Chart S.1). Of the 212,730 increase in net residential move-outs during 2020, roughly half were temporary; 58% came from Manhattan and 26% from Brooklyn.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller’s Office analysis of United States Postal Service, “Change of Address Stats,” https://about.usps.com/who/legal/foia/library.htm.

Note: Includes residential and business moves. The USPS instructs movers to indicate that the move is “permanent” if they do not plan to return to their old address or “temporary” if they plan to move back to their old address within six months. USPS data includes move-outs to any location, domestic or abroad, including other locations within the same municipality. However, the data does not include move-ins from international locations.

Relative to the pre-pandemic trend in 2019, losses continued throughout 2020 and into early 2021, but the city’s fortunes turned in the summer.  From June to August, the USPS recorded 32,431 net residential move-outs from New York City, slightly better than the 32,951 net move-outs during the summer of 2019. Most likely fueled by the return of in-person office jobs and schools, neighborhoods that experienced the largest outflows during the spring of 2020 saw the largest inflows during the summer of 2021. Of the 15 neighborhoods that saw net gains in residents during the summer, nine are in Manhattan (See map below). On a per capita basis, summer arrivals were highest in Chelsea/Midtown, Battery Park City/Greenwich Village, Murray Hill/Gramercy, and Chinatown/Lower East Side.

Nonetheless, at the current pace, the data indicates that certain city neighborhoods face a long road to regaining pre-pandemic population. Whether or not these gains accelerate in the upcoming months will largely depend the pandemic’s trajectory, the city’s ability to sustain and expand in-person activities, and the endurance of telework policies.

Map: Change in Net Residential Moves from Pre-Pandemic Trend During Summer 2021

(Net Residential Moves per 1,000 Residents in June-August 2021, as Compared to 2019)

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller’s Office analysis of United States Postal Service, “Change of Address Stats,” https://about.usps.com/who/legal/foia/library.htm; and New York City Department of City Planning, “2020 Decennial Census data,” https://www1.nyc.gov/site/planning/planning-level/nyc-population/2020-census.page.

Note: The number of residential moves reflects change of address forms submitted by both families and individuals for both permanent and temporary moves. In 2020, 82% of recorded residential moves were for individuals. USPS zip code level-data was apportioned to community districts and PUMAs based on a crosswalk developed by Baruch College, https://www.baruch.cuny.edu/confluence/display/geoportal/NYC+Geographies.