New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

Despite worries of yet another COVID wave, New York City’s economy continues to recover across most metrics. In these past 8 years as New York City’s 44^th Comptroller, and decades in public service, I’ve learned you should never bet against the hard-work, creativity and resilience of the greatest city on Earth.

There is much work to be done to build back our city. I firmly believe Comptroller-elect Brad Lander and the newly elected officials across city government will rise to the challenge. Our brightest days are ahead!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

Labor Markets

• Following a few months with little growth, New York City employment jumped by a seasonally adjusted 37,000 in October, led by a gain of 11,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality, 7,000 of them in accommodation and food service (Table 1).
• The U.S. reopened to most European travelers on November 8^th, suggesting further growth in these sectors in November. But the Biden administration banned travel from eight African countries on November 26^th, and the threat of yet another COVID variant may bring new restrictions.

Table 1: Seasonally Adjusted New York City Employment, by Industry

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, private employment seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB

• New York City’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 9.4% in October, down from 9.8% in September, and has declined steadily since the COVID surge of last winter (Chart 1).
• Estimated unemployment among Black New York City residents remains especially high at 13.3% over the most recent three months of data.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Seasonally adjusted overall rate from NY Department of Labor, by race/ethnicity 3-month averages, not seasonally adjusted, from the Current Population Survey

• Initial New York City unemployment insurance claims fell to 23,386 in October 2021, down from 27,209 in September (Chart 2), falling below pre-pandemic levels for the first time; there were 24,002 initial claims in October 2019. Initial claims peaked at 576,818 in April 2020.

Chart 2

SOURCE: NY Dept. of Labor

• 92,500 people received unemployment insurance benefits in New York City in October 2021, down from 138,200 in September, a decline of 45,700, but still well above the 55,200 who received benefits in October 2019 (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: NY Dept. of Labor

Real Estate Markets

• Data from Douglas Elliman show the higher-end brokered Manhattan apartment market continued to strengthen in October. Average asking rents per square foot rose to $70.62 in October, up from $70.31 in September, and the vacancy rate fell to 2.11% (Table 2).

Table 2: Douglas Elliman Rental Matrix, Trends in High-End Residential Apartment Rentals

SOURCE: Elliman Report, September 2021, Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens Rentals.

*NOTE:  2021 data reflect expanded collection of listing data

• October data from Streeteasy show the number of apartments available for rent citywide fell to 30,325 in October, down from 31,958 in September. Apartment inventories have declined steadily across 14 months from a peak of 75,681 in August 2020 (Chart 4).
• Median asking rents fell to $2,700 in October, down from $2,744 in September, but remain well above lows from last winter.

Chart 4

SOURCE: Streeteasy.com

• October consumer prices in the New York City area rose by 4.3% from a year ago, well below the U.S. average of 6.2% (Chart 5). Inflation at the national level was driven primarily by energy costs, but inflation was lower in larger and older U.S. metropolitan areas.

Chart 5

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• CoStar reports 126 million square feet of office space is available for lease in New York City as of December 1st, 2021, down from 127 million at the end of the third quarter (Chart 6).
• Average asking rents declined to $65 per square foot at the beginning of December 2021, but the pace of decline is slowing.

Chart 6

SOURCE: CoStar, fourth quarter-to-date asking rents and available square footage measured as of December 1^st, 2021

• After a strong six-month period, New York City real estate sales fell to $6.15 billion in October 2021, down from $8.19 billion in September (Chart 7). October sales were well above the $4.77 billion of October 2020, but well below the $7.55 billion of October 2019.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Comptroller’s Analysis of Department of Finance Data

Return to Office

• The latest security card data from Kastle Systems show New York City area office occupancy rose to 37.0% the week ending Wednesday, December 1^st, the highest occupancy of the pandemic era (Chart 8).
• After lagging for much of the year, New York City area office occupancy is now higher than San Jose (29.0%), San Francisco (28.2%), Los Angles (36.3%) and Chicago (35.2%), and approaching that of Philadelphia (38.1%).

Chart 8

SOURCE: Kastle Systems, weekdays excluding Federal holidays through December 1st, 2021.

• Google mobility data shows time spent at workplaces and on transit dipped as might be expected during the week of Thanksgiving. The week prior, time spent at workplaces was down about 25.7% compared to January 2020, after having been down 30-40% for most of the year (Chart 9).

Chart 9

SOURCE: GPS mobility data indexed to 1/3/2020 to 2/6/2020, from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.

• Following strong growth in September and October, weekday subway ridership plateaued in November, averaging 3.15 million riders each non-holiday weekday, an increase of 84% over the same month last year (Chart 10). Despite recent gains, the subways carried about 44% fewer weekday riders in November, as compared to before the pandemic.
• More than 1.4 million riders took MTA buses on an average weekday in November, about 36% less than before the pandemic.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.

Business and Tourism

• Demand for New York City hotel rooms rose to well over 2.3 million in October 2021, up over 150,000 from September, but remains down about a third from October 2019 (Chart 11).
• October revenue per available hotel room (RevPAR) fell to $160, down from $163 in September, but in line with the typical seasonal decline in room rates.

Chart 11

SOURCE: STR via CoStar

NOTE: Some fraction of pandemic period revenues is attributable to the City’s temporary housing of the homeless.

• Nationwide air travel improved slightly in October, as airports recorded 21% fewer passengers than the same month in 2019 (Chart 12). As compared to pre-pandemic trends, air travel volumes also improved in the New York City region. Compared to the same months in 2019, air travel volumes in the region were down 36% in October, an improvement from 40% in September.
• More recently, nationwide air travel set a new pandemic-era record on the Sunday after Thanksgiving. For the 10-day period ending Sunday, November 28^th, airport passenger volumes were 11% below the same days in 2019.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration.

• Pedestrian traffic in Times Square continued to slowly climb in October, reaching an average of 227,180 per day, up 4% from September and 111% from October 2020. Compared to the same month in 2019, the number of daily Times Square visitors was down 38% (Chart 13).
• The Times Square Alliance reported that an average of 260,000 people passed through the area the weekend after Thanksgiving, double the number from one year ago but down from 337,000 in 2019.

Chart 13

SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.

• Monthly data from the Taxi and Limousine Commission showed a marked improvement in taxi trips in October (Chart 14). Average daily trips in yellow taxis rose 13% from 98,724 in September to 111,638 in October, while for-hire vehicle companies, Uber and Lyft, recorded an average of 533,613 daily trips, a 26% improvement from the prior month.
• Compared to pre-pandemic trends in 2019, average daily trips in October were down 52% for yellow taxis and 22% for Uber and Lyft.

Chart 14

SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.

City Finances

• New York city cigarette tax revenue fell to $21.7 million in Fiscal Year 2021 (July ‘20 to June ‘21), down from $25.5 million in Fiscal Year 2020, and has declined steadily over the last decade from $69.5 million in 2011 (Chart 15).

Chart 15

SOURCE: Financial Management System

• New York City spent $6.2 billion on COVID response and recovery efforts in FY 2021.
• The response and recovery spending continues into FY 2022 with projected spending of $7.13 billion in the recently released November Financial Plan. Spending in the outyears of the plan is projected to drop to $968 million in FY 2023, $430 million in FY 2024 and $459 million in FY 2025.
• Thus far, the City has committed to $2.83 billion of expenditures through December 1^st in the current fiscal year.
• Table 3 below is a summary table of the agencies that make up more than 90% of the spending.

Table 3: COVID-19 Response and Recovery Expenditures

SOURCE: Financial Management System, *Description provides a summary of items that constitute most of the agencies spending.

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $1.65 billion as of Tuesday, November 30^th. At the same time last year, the City had $2.24 billion (Chart 16).
• Taking advantage of a provision in the federal CARES Act, the City has deferred payment of payroll taxes from April 2020, which has led to a net improvement in the City’s cash balances of approximately $1.35 billion. Deferrals ended in December 2020 and deferred payments will be due in 2 installments no later than December 2021 and December 2022. Deferred payments are accrued to the fiscal year in which they are due.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the first quarter of FY 2022 and projections for cash balances through March 31^st, 2022, are available here.

Chart 16

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight

The Worsening State of NYC Jails Over the Last Decade

Since 2014, the Office of the New York City Comptroller has documented annual operating and performance trends at the Department of Correction (DOC). During this time, the jail population – which primarily consists of people awaiting trial or serving short sentences – fell dramatically, dropping by more than half. But as the population shrank, conditions and violence worsened, even as resources per incarcerated person, as measured by personnel and expenditures, skyrocketed. As of FY 2021, the DOC spent more than half a million dollars to incarcerate one person for one year, nearly four times the amount spent 10 years ago.

In spite of these resources, city jails have been in crisis in recent months, as DOC has contended with staff absenteeism, steady growth in the jail population after years of declines and a steep drop at the beginning of the pandemic, and an unprecedented 14 deaths of people in custody since the beginning of the year. In 2019, the City Council approved a plan to close and replace Rikers Island facilities with four new borough-based jails by 2027. As a new administration takes office, advancing the vision of a smaller, safer and fairer jail system remains one of the City’s most pressing challenges and will necessitate collective action on the part of all criminal legal system stakeholders to further reduce the jail population.

Falling crime rates, decriminalization efforts, expansions in diversion, and more recently, bail reform, collectively drove the average daily jail population from 12,790 in FY 2011 to 4,961 in FY 2021 (Chart S1). The pandemic contributed to a temporary drop in incarceration at the end of FY 2020 as non-essential activity ground to a halt and the mayor and district attorneys took action to return some individuals at risk of severe illness in jail to their communities. Long-term efforts to reduce incarceration have also led to a higher share of the population facing more serious charges and a higher share with mental health challenges. As of FY 2021, more than half of incarcerated individuals had a mental health diagnosis, up from 32% in FY 2011.

Chart S1. NYC Department of Correction Budget and Jail Population

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports for FY 2011 – 2021, NYC Financial Management System, Mayor’s Management Reports for FY 2011 – 2021.

Note: DOC costs related to staffing the Horizon Juvenile Detention Center have been excluded.

DOC’s budget has also declined but at a far slower pace. Over the last three years, the DOC budget contracted 10%, falling from $1.39 billion in FY 2018 to $1.25 billion in FY 2021. Because the budget has not fallen nearly as quickly as the jail population, the annual cost per incarcerated person has risen. Including additional costs outside the DOC budget, such as employee fringe benefits and health care expenses in the jails, the full annual cost of incarcerating one person was $556,539 in FY 2021, up from $144,176 in FY 2011 (Chart S2).

Chart S2. Total Annual and Daily Cost per Incarcerated Person, Including Costs Funded Outside the Department of Correction Budget

*Fringe benefit and pension costs are estimated as of April 2021.

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports for FY 2011 – 2021, NYC Office of Management and Budget Message of the Mayor and Budget Function Analysis for FY 2012 – 2022, NYC Financial Management System, Mayor’s Management Reports for FY 2011 – 2021.

NOTE: Full cost excludes debt service, judgments and claims, and legal services. DOC costs related to staffing the Horizon Juvenile Detention Center were also excluded. Fringe benefits include the cost of retiree health insurance.

Similarly, DOC headcount has fallen but also at a more measured pace. After an expansion in FY 2016 and FY 2017, the number of uniformed personnel employed by DOC fell steadily, dropping to 8,338 at the end of FY 2021, or 1% below FY 2011 headcount. Since FY 2016, DOC has employed more guards than the average daily population, with the department employing 1.7 guards per incarcerated person in FY 2021.

Amid pandemic-related restrictions within the jails, including the loss of visitation rights and access to structured programming, rates of violent incidents worsened in FY 2021, accelerating a trend that predated the pandemic. Despite a 15% decline in the average daily population from FY 2020 to 2021, the absolute number of fight and assault infractions rose from 11,191 to 11,214. Since FY 2011, the annual rate of fight and assault infractions per 1,000 incarcerated persons has nearly quadrupled; the annual rate of assaults on DOC staff more than quintupled; and officers’ use of force rate increased by 779%. Meanwhile, solitary confinement, a practice linked to higher risks of self-harm and suicide, remains in use, and the de Blasio administration missed its own November 1 deadline to implement a new restrictive housing model.

Even though the average daily population was down in FY 2021, as compared to FY 2020, the number of people in jail steadily rose for most of the fiscal year, ultimately reaching a recent peak of 6,000 in late August 2021 and early September. As of the beginning of November 2021, the jail population had fallen back to about 5,500 individuals but still represented the highest level since January 2020 and remains about 2,000 above the maximum population planned under the borough-based jails plan.