New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

As we emerge from the darkest days of the pandemic, the economic recovery is top of mind for all of us.  Unfortunately, the late-summer employment statistics suggested a mixed picture of the national recovery.  Job gains were positive in August, but grew at a slower pace than in June and July; initial and continuing unemployment claims suggest that continued progress in September could stall.

Similarly, rising unemployment claims, a slowdown in construction permit applications and continued deterioration in income tax withholding suggest that New York City’s economic recovery is at risk of slowing.

While we have a long road ahead of us, history proves time and time again that the trajectory of New York City is an upward one. We always rise to a challenge, and we will rise to the one ahead.

Get Counted!

In this week’s Spotlight, we focus on the continuing lag in Census response rates in the City, which, at 58.9%, is trailing both the nation and our own response rate from 10 years ago at this same point.  It is vital to the City’s future that all New Yorkers get counted. To complete your form online, visit the Census Bureau’s website by September 30, https://2020census.gov/en.html.  Households may also mail back the questionnaire sent to their home or call 844-330-2020. Phone numbers for languages other than English are available here, https://2020census.gov/en/ways-to-respond/responding-by-phone.html.

It my hope that this weekly newsletter serves as a helpful resource and regular update on the city’s progress as we navigate the challenges ahead. New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever to build our city back and their resilience, creativity and determination is nothing short of inspiring.

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• U.S. employment increased by 1.4 million in August to a total of 141 million (Chart 1). This is a modest increase in comparison to April’s historic collapse and the dramatic rebound in June. U.S. employment peaked at over 152 million in February; through August, the economy has regained 10.6 million jobs, or 48% percent, of the 22.1 million jobs lost between February and April.
• The national unemployment rate fell from 10.2% in July to 8.4% in August, even with rising labor force participation. (New York City’s unemployment rate was 20.0% in July; the August rate will be available next week)

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. BLS

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims remained steady at 884,000 for the week of September 5^th (Chart 2). Continuing claims rose 93,000 to 13,385,000 for the week of August 29^th.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) rose by over a million to 14,591,621 the week prior (Chart 3). PUA, enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed or those unable to work due to COVID-19.
• Regular and PUA continuing claims together covered 27.8 million unemployed Americans as of the week ending August 22^nd (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

New York City

• Initial New York City unemployment claims by NYC residents rose to 36,944, up from 35,196 the week prior (Chart 4). The number of initial claims rose for the 4^th week in a row, from a recent low of 28,447 the week of August 8.

Chart 4

SOURCE: NYS DOL

MTA Ridership

• Subway ridership surpassed 1.5 million riders on Thursday, September 3^rd, the highest level since mid-March (Chart 5). Weekday ridership continued to rise following the Labor Day holiday, averaging 1.57 million over Tuesday, September 8^th and Wednesday, September 9^th. However, as of last Wednesday ridership was still 71% lower than 2019.
• Following the end of free fares on local buses on August 31^st, weekday bus ridership fell 23% in the week ending September 4^th, dropping from an average of 1.30 million riders to 1.01 million. Local buses had been free since March 23^rd to enable rear-door boarding and social distancing between bus drivers and riders.

Chart 5

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes holidays.  Figures for the week ending September 11 includes data through Wednesday, September 9.

Building Permits

• After collapsing in April and May, and rebounding sharply in June, the number of building permit applications filed has resumed the downward trend in place before the pandemic (Chart 6). The first week of September saw 1,431 building permit applications filed, down from 1,735 the week prior and over 2,000 per week in June.

Chart 6

SOURCE: NYC DOB, via NYC OpenData

City Finances

• City personal income tax revenue (PIT) withheld from wages and salaries of employees (withholding) continued its negative downward trend in August (Chart 7) for a fifth consecutive month.
• August’s decline was 10.7 percent, a deterioration from July’s 7.9 percent drop. Averaging the two months to adjust for varying payroll patterns within any given month shows a 9.2 percent average decline, a significant reversal from the pre-pandemic trends.

Chart 7

SOURCE: NYS Dept of Taxation & Finance

COVID Spending

The authorized modified FY 2020 budget for COVID-related spending is $4.01 billion (Table 1). One third of the budget, $1.34 billion, is for medical, surgical and laboratory supplies. The modified budget also anticipates that $351 million of employee health insurance expenditures will be eligible for Federal COVID reimbursement.

As of September 9^th, $2.88 billion, or 72 percent, has been committed – that is, the City has incurred obligations for that amount. Medical, surgical and lab supplies, NYC Health + Hospitals and food/forage expenses account for $1.57 billion, or 55 percent of the commitments. Of the total commitments, $2.46 billion has been expended.

Table 1: COVID19 Budget and Expenditures, FY 2020

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

NOTE: Expenditures in Dept. of Emergency Management and Dept. of Education are net of expenditures for food and forage, shown separately.

COVID Contracts

Through September 9th, the City has registered $3.91 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 2). Sixty percent of the contracts, $2.36 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE). Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $141 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 2: Registered COVID Contracts through 09-9-2020

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $6.167 billion as of Wednesday, September 9. At the same time last year, the City had $4.150 billion (Chart 8).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the first quarter and projections for cash balances through September 30th, 2020, are available here.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

The 2020 Census Count Nears Its End

Photo Credit: Linda Parton / Shutterstock.com

As the end of the count for the 2020 census approaches, New York City’s self-response rate lags both its 2010 performance and the nation. As of September 8^th, 58.9% of New York City households had completed the questionnaire, 5.1 percentage points worse than the city’s final self-response rate of 64.0% in 2010. Across the U.S., 65.5% of households have responded to the 2020 census to date.

As required by the U.S. Constitution, the census is conducted every ten years and is critical to ensuring fair representation and equitable resource allocation. The Comptroller’s Office estimates that in FY 2018 New York City received $5.8 billion in federal aid that was guided by census data.

New York City’s self-response rate also lags the statewide average of 62.0%.  By borough, rates range from 55.9% in Brooklyn to 63.9% in Staten Island, although Manhattan is the furthest behind its 2010 performance (60.1% vs 66.2%).

The start of the 2020 Census collided with the COVID-19 pandemic, as forms were mailed beginning March 12^th. Counting and outreach efforts, which have been hampered by COVID-related restrictions, will end on September 30, one month earlier than initially announced. If a household does not fill out the form, the Census Bureau sends census takers to the household or tries to fill in gaps using official records. However, self-response is the most accurate way to be counted.

Table 3: U.S., New York, and New York City Census response rates in 2010 and 2020.

SOURCE: https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

To complete your form online, visit the Census Bureau’s website by September 30, https://2020census.gov/en.html.  Households may also mail back the questionnaire sent to their home or call 844-330-2020. Phone numbers for languages other than English are available here, https://2020census.gov/en/ways-to-respond/responding-by-phone.html.