New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

It is increasingly clear that we are not experiencing the “V”-shaped economic recovery many of us had hoped for in the early days of the pandemic lockdowns. At 13.9% in September, the City’s unemployment rate is still well above the previous monthly high, excluding the current recession, of 11.6% — which dates back to the fourth quarter of 1992.

And it is over 6 percentage points above the national rate. Indeed, even as the recovery slows nationally due to rising caseloads in many states, New York City still lags the nation in job recovery, with only a little more than one-third of jobs lost at the height of the pandemic regained since then – compared to 54 percent nationally.

New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever, and their resilience, creativity and determination will be what brings our city back. It is my hope that this weekly newsletter serves as a helpful resource and regular update on the city’s progress as we navigate the challenges ahead.

Stay vigilant, mask up – and vote!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• U.S. retail spending rose to $549.3 billion in September, an increase of $10.3 billion (1.9%) from August, according to Census figures released Friday. Overall spending is up 2% from September last year, with increased spending on building supplies and groceries offset by lower spending on clothing and restaurants, and so offering little relief to hard-hit sectors of the economy.
• The pandemic continues unabated in the North Central United States. Seven-day average new cases per 100,000 reached 80 in North Dakota, 73 in South Dakota and 57 in Montana (Chart 1).
• Seven-day average new cases in the U.S. rose to over 65,000, approaching the July peak of 70,000 cases daily.
• New cases in New York had been rising due to hotspots in Brooklyn and Rockland county, but seven-day average new cases dropped from 7.4 per 100,000 a week ago to 6.9 on Friday.

Chart 1

SOURCE: New York Times, Covid-19 repository

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims rose to 898,000 for the week ending October 10th, up from 845,000 the week prior (Chart 2). Initial claims remain persistently high, undermining confidence in the strength of the nation’s economic recovery.
• Continuing unemployment insurance claims fell by over 1 million, to 10,018,000 for the week of October 3rd, down from 11,183,000 the week prior.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 11,172,335 from 11,394,832 the week prior (Chart 3), a decline of 222,497. PUA, enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed, and those with poorly documented income, who are unable to work due to COVID-19.
• Regular and PUA continuing claims together covered 21,992,125 unemployed Americans as of the week ending September 26^th (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

New York City

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents showed little change for the 2^nd week running, falling to 38,929 for the week of October 10th, down from 39,101 the week prior (Chart 4).

Chart 4

SOURCE: NY DOL

• New York City’s September unemployment rate fell to 13.9%, from 16.2% in August (Chart 5).

Chart 5

SOURCE: NY DOL Local Area Unemployment Statistics, Not Seasonally Adjusted

• New York City approved permits for construction of 1,452 housing units in August, up from a low of 532 in April, but down from 1,696 August a year ago (Chart 6).

Chart 6

SOURCE: U.S. HUD

Public Assistance

• From February to August, the number of New York City residents receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits grew by 202,417 to 1.68 million individuals, an increase of 13.7%. Similarly, the number of cash assistance recipients rose 19.4% from 327,013 in February to 390,441 in August. (Chart 7)

Chart 7

SOURCE: New York City Human Resources Administration.
NOTE: In late September, New York State revised SNAP data for May 2020 and June 2020 to correct the inadvertent inclusion of Pandemic EBT benefits in the counts.

Transportation

MTA Ridership

• Following the Monday holiday, subway ridership averaged 1.77 million over Tuesday, October 13^th and Wednesday, October 14^th, a slight increase from the prior week. (Chart 8)
• On Wednesday, October 14^th, subway ridership reached a new seven-month high of nearly 1.83 million riders. Compared to the prior year, subway ridership was still down 69% and MTA bus ridership was down 50%.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.
NOTE: Excludes holidays.  Figures for the week ending October 16 include data through Wednesday, October 14.

Bicycle Volume

• Based on counts of bicycle volume on bridges and other key locations with protected bike lanes, bicycle ridership in the city has boomed during the summer and fall.
• At the Williamsburg Bridge – the most heavily used bike path – total volume during June through September rose by 31% from 777,424 last year to more than 1 million this year (Chart 9).
• Similarly, bike volume on the Ed Koch Queensboro Bridge grew 47%, while volume increased by 43% on the Pulaski Bridge and 40% on Kent Avenue in Brooklyn. According to the City’s bike count data, one exception to the ridership surge was the Brooklyn Bridge, which had 5% fewer riders.

Chart 9

SOURCE: New York City Department of Transportation, Bicycle Counts.
NOTE: Kent Avenue is between North 8^th St and North 9^th St.

City Finances

COVID-19 Spending

• Preliminary data for the close of FY 2020 shows that the City incurred $2.62 billion of COVID related expenditures for the fiscal year. The FY 2020 expenditures are $1.39 billion below the June modification estimates, due to the roll-out of much of COVID spending into FY 2021. While the FY 2021 Budget assumed only $118 million of COVID related spending, through October 14^th, the City has committed to $1.97 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $4.59 billion of COVID related spending over FY 2020 and FY 2021, as shown in Table 1. Of this, $3.54 billion has been expended.

Table 1: COVID-19 Budget, FY 2020 and FY 2021

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through October 14th, the City has registered $4.08 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 2). Almost sixty percent of the contracts, $2.44 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $141 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 10-14-2020

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.
NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $8.19 billion as of Wednesday, October 14. At the same time last year, the City had $6.57 billion (Chart 10).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the fourth quarter and projections for cash balances through December 31^th, 2020, are available here.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

State Developments

• According to the State Comptroller’s cash report, total state tax revenue increased on a year-over-year basis in the month of September, from $8.4 billion last September to $8.8 billion this year. (Table 3)

Table 3. New York State All Funds Tax Collections ($ in millions)

SOURCE: New York State Office of the Comptroller.

• Through the first six months of state fiscal year 2020-21 (April to September), state tax collections were 6.7% below last year, a difference of $2.8 billion. Consumption and use taxes were down by 15.7%, while personal income tax (PIT) revenue was down by 4.0% and business taxes were down by 5.0%.
• Compared to projections in the State’s enacted budget, tax collections to date were $1.0 billion better than forecast.
• Through September, state spending was 5.0% ($4.1 billion) higher than last year, driven by a 5.8% increase in local assistance ($3.6 billion).
• The State has benefited from allocations of federal relief, including $5.1 billion in Coronavirus Relief Funds and an estimated $2.2 billion from a temporary increase in the Medicaid matching rate. Through the first half of the year, federal receipts were $10.7 billion higher than last year, a difference of 33.5%.

Spotlight of the Week

New York City’s Recovery Trails the Nation’s

Compared to the rest of the country Covid-19 hit New York City early and hard. As the City closed stores, restaurants, schools and offices, it shed hundreds of thousands of jobs, and the unemployment rate spiked from an historic low of 3.4% in February to over 20% in June. The pandemic impacted life in the rest of the country as well, but New York City has been particularly vulnerable due to its population density, and office towers, transportation, bars, restaurants, and cultural institutions that rely on bringing crowds of people close together.

While the U.S. unemployment rate peaked at 14.7% in April, falling to 7.9% in September, the City’s unemployment rate continued rising to 20.4% in June, and has since fallen more slowly. In September, the City’s unemployment rate was 13.9%, 6% higher than the rest of the country.

While many office workers were able to transition to working from home, the closure of retail and service industries disproportionally affected lower-wage service jobs. Asian and Hispanic communities have been especially hard hit. The unemployment rate of Asian New York City residents rose from 3% before the pandemic, to over 25% in May. Unemployment rates for Asian and Hispanic New Yorkers remain over 19% (Chart S.1), almost triple the national average.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: Current Population Survey

Between February and April U.S. private employment declined by over 21 million, with over 900,000 of those job losses occurring in New York City. But the U.S. has so far bounced back more quickly, recovering 15% of lost jobs already in May, and 54% by September (Chart S.2). New York City had recovered only 3% of job losses in May, and 34% by September.

Chart S.2

SOURCE: NY DOL, and St. Louis Federal Reserve, FRED database