New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

The need for the next round of Federal relief to boost the struggling economic recovery is becoming more urgent.  Slowing growth in employment, small business revenue, and subway ridership in New York City all point to a slowing economic recovery.  Jobs in the city remain almost 15 percent below the pre-pandemic level.  Small and large businesses alike are suffering – or disappearing altogether.  And as this week’s Spotlight highlights, the uneven recovery has resulted in a lingering higher unemployment rate for New York City women. 

In the meantime, New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever, and their resilience, creativity and determination will be what brings our city back. I hope this weekly newsletter serves as a helpful resource and regular update on the city’s progress as we navigate the challenges ahead.

Stay vigilant, mask up – and remember that early voting has begun and runs through November 1^st!  Find your early voting polling place here.

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• New U.S. COVID cases hit an all time high of 75,064 on October 22nd. The previous high was 73,523 on July 24^th.
• COVID infections continue surging in the North Central United States. Seven-day average new cases per 100,000 residents rose above 100 in North Dakota, up from 80 last week, and exceeded 80 in Montana, rising from 70 last week.
• Following a slight resurgence, New York cases have leveled off at a seven-day average of about 8 per 100,000.

Chart 1

SOURCE: New York Times, Covid-19 repository

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to 787,000 for the week ending October 17th (Chart 2). Last week’s claims were revised from 898,000 down to 842,000.
• Continuing U.S. unemployment insurance claims fell by over 1 million for the third week in a row, down to 8,373,000 for the week of October 10^th. Last week’s claims were revised from 10,018,000 down to 9,397,000.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) grew to 3,296,156 for the week of October 3^rd from 2,786,333 the week prior, an increase of over half a million (Chart 3). PEUC, enacted as part of the CARES Act, provides 13 weeks of extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 10,232,853 from 10,658,673 the week prior, a decline of 425,820. PUA, also enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed, and those with poorly documented income, who are unable to work due to COVID-19.
• Regular, PUA and PEUC continuing claims together covered 22,539,984 unemployed Americans as of the week ending October 3rd (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

New York City

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents fell to 31,971 for the week of October 17^th, down from 38,929 the week prior (Chart 4). It is the fewest initial claims since the week of August 8^th.

Chart 4

SOURCE: NY  DOL

• Seasonally adjusted total private employment in New York City rose to 3.496 million in September, an increase of just 26,645 from August (Chart 5). The City’s recovery appears to be slowing.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NY DOL, seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB

• As of September, New York City private employment was still down 14.5% from February highs (Table 1).
• Employment in financial activities is down only 4.9%, but employment in arts and entertainment remains down 64.8%, as theatres and performance venues remain shut.

Table 1 Seasonally Adjusted New York City Employment in 2020 by Industry
In thousands

SOURCE: NY DOL, seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB

• New York City small business revenues are still down 39% from the beginning of the year, a big improvement from late March when they were down as much as 70%, but little improved from early July (Chart 6).
• Small business revenues in New York City have nonetheless recovered more than the Bay Area, San Antonio, Boston, and Washington DC, if less well than in multiple other cities.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Womply via tracktherecovery.org

Transportation

MTA Ridership

• After some gains in subway ridership in September and early October, average MTA weekday ridership has been roughly flat over the last couple weeks. Subway ridership averaged 1.77 from Monday, October 19^th to Wednesday, October 21^st, the same as the prior week. (Chart 7)
• More than four months following the phased reopening of non-essential businesses, transit ridership remains far below pre-pandemic levels. Ridership was 70% below 2019 levels on the subway and 57% below on MTA buses as of Wednesday, October 21^st.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes holidays.  Figures for the week ending October 23 include data through Wednesday, October 21.

Taxis and For-hire Vehicles

• The pandemic has had a severe impact on the taxi industry in New York City. As demand plummeted, the number of average daily trips recorded by green and yellow taxis dropped from nearly 231,000 in February to roughly 9,100 in April. (Chart 8)
• High-volume for-hire vehicles (FHV), such as Lyft, Uber and Via, similarly experienced an 80% drop in trips in April over the prior year but have since recovered faster than taxis. As of August, average daily taxi trips were down 83% while FHV trips were down 45%, as compared to August 2019.
• The contraction in trips has similarly reduced the number of working drivers. During August, about 6,500 unique taxi drivers and 49,000 FHV drivers recorded trips, sharply down from nearly 23,000 taxi drivers and more than 79,000 FHV drivers on the road in February.

Chart 8

SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.

City Finances

Business Income Tax Withholding Filings

To glean information on the impact of the pandemic on business closures and temporary interruptions that have occurred during the pandemic we examine the number of City businesses that report withholding income taxes for their employees.

• The average number of businesses that filed income tax withholding for employees, which had been moderately increasing before the pandemic, dropped dramatically beginning in the second quarter, as on-site non-essential business activity was almost completely shut down (Table 2).
• Compared to 2019, the total numbers of businesses filing withholding declined by over 16 percent in the second quarter.
• The decline moderated as businesses began to reopen, but there were approximately 7 percent fewer businesses reporting withholding in New York City in the third quarter of 2020 compared to 2019.
• This could foreshadow significant permanent business closures in the future, particularly if the economic recovery falters again or if further aid from the federal government fails to materialize

Table 2: Quarterly Average of Businesses Filing NYC Withholding, 2020 vs 2019

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Taxation and Finance

NOTE:   Businesses in New York City are required to report income taxes withheld from employee paychecks following each payroll, or not less than quarterly, depending on the amount of tax withheld. The number of businesses filing in any month includes repeat filers who withhold on weekly or biweekly schedules.

COVID-19 Spending

• As of October 21^st, preliminary data for the close of FY 2020 shows the City has accrued $2.62 billion in COVID related expenditures (Table 3). The FY 2020 expenditures are $1.39 billion below the June modification estimates, due to the roll-out of much of COVID spending into FY 2021.
• While the FY 2021 Budget assumed only $118 million of COVID related spending, through October 21^st, the City has committed to $2.14 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $4.76 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 3: COVID-19 Expenditures, FY 2020 and FY 2021

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through October 21st, the City has registered $4.37 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 4). More than sixty percent of the contracts, $2.68 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $141 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 10-21-2020

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $7.11 billion as of Wednesday, October 21. At the same time last year, the City had $4.58 billion (Chart 9).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the fourth quarter and projections for cash balances through December 31^th, 2020, are available here.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

 Spotlight of the Week

NYC Women’s Unemployment Persistently Higher than Men’s in the COVID Recession

New York City faced a more daunting unemployment situation than the rest of the nation in September, and women bore a higher local unemployment rate than men, according to recently published data from the Current Population Survey.

U.S. unemployment rates in September were 7.3 percent for men and 8.0 percent for women versus New York City unemployment rates of 13.1 percent and 16.2 percent for men and women, respectively.  Notably, the gender gap in unemployment is more pronounced at the New York City level with unemployment rates among women passing men in June and diverging to a 5.5 percentage point gap in August, before settling to current levels as illustrated in the chart below.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey

Prior to the pandemic, women in the city held a disproportionate number of jobs in some of the occupations that have been most heavily impacted by COVID-19.  For example, women held 70 percent of nearly half a million office and administrative support occupations, 89 percent of healthcare support occupations, 71 percent of healthcare practitioner occupations, and 70 percent of the City’s more than 200,000 personal care occupations – all sectors that have been heavily impacted by shutdown orders since March and hobbled by workplace restrictions.  Men, on the other hand, disproportionately held occupations that have recovered relatively faster, including construction, transportation, material moving, maintenance and repair occupations, which together account for over 600,000 jobs.  Higher representation in some occupations that have either recovered faster or been more adaptable to working from home may have had a cushioning impact on the unemployment rate among men in New York City.

Chart S.2

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey