New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

New Yorkers can breathe a sigh of relief with the outcome of the Presidential election, but the prospect of continued Republican control of the Senate puts a damper on hopes of expanded Federal aid to New York City and New York State. 

The economic recovery continues with U.S. unemployment down to 6.9% in October, and there are hopeful signs in New York City with new claims for unemployment insurance falling to a post-pandemic low and Google mobility data showing an ongoing return of New Yorkers to their workplaces (see this week’s Spotlight). 

Our economic struggles haven’t deterred us. New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever, and their resilience, creativity and determination will be what brings our city back. I hope this weekly newsletter serves as a helpful resource and regular update on the city’s progress as we navigate the challenges ahead. 

Thanks for voting, and mask up! 

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy 

National Indicators 

• The seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October, despite a 0.3% percent increase in labor force participation, according to BLS figures released Friday (Chart 1). U.S. nonfarm payroll employment rose by 638,000 in October.  
• Thursday, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve restated its intention to push inflation above 2%, keep interest rates near zero, and continue to purchase both Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to ensure an ample supply of credit to households and businesses. 

Chart 1 

 SOURCE: U.S. BLS 

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to 751,000 for the week ending October 31st (Chart 2), down from a revised 758,000 last week.  
• Continuing U.S. unemployment insurance claims fell to 7,285,000 for the week of October 24th, down from a revised 7,823,000 last week. 

Chart 2  

 SOURCE: U.S. DOL 

• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) grew to 3,961,060 for the week of October 17th, from 3,683,496 the week prior, an increase of 387,340 (Chart 3). PEUC, enacted as part of the CARES Act, provides 13 weeks of extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. 
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 9,332,610 from 10,324,779 the week prior, a decline of almost a million. PUA, also enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed, and those with poorly documented income, who are unable to work due to COVID-19. 

• Regular, PUA and PEUC continuing claims together covered 20,783,299 unemployed Americans as of the week ending October 17th (Chart 3). 

Chart 3  

 SOURCE: U.S. DOL 

New York City 

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents fell to 23,239 for the week of October 31st, down from 28,451 the week prior (Chart 4). It is the fewest initial claims since New York City’s March shutdown. 

Chart 4 

 SOURCE: New York State DOL 

Public Assistance 

• Enrollment growth in New York City has outpaced the rest of the state, as the number of persons enrolled in Medicaid has expanded by 10.5% in the city and by 8.8% elsewhere in the state (Chart 5). New York City Medicaid enrollment increased to nearly 3.74 million in September, an increase of 354,560 since February.

 Chart 5 

 SOURCE: New York State Department of Health, Medicaid Enrollment Databook. 

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership 

• MTA weekday subway ridership has been trending down over the last couple weeks after reaching an average of roughly 1.80 million daily riders during the week ending October 23rd and then falling to an average of 1.77 million the following week (Chart 6). 
• Sharp ridership declines on Election Day helped bring the average for Monday, November 2nd through Wednesday, November 4th down to 1.68 million.  
• MTA bus ridership has also begun to decline in recent weeks, falling to an average of 1.08 million during the week ending October 30th, from 1.13 million during the prior week.  

 Chart 6 

 SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers. 

NOTE: Excludes holidays.  Figures for the week ending November 6 include data through Wednesday, November 4. 

Air Travel 

• According to the most recent data released by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ), volume at airports in the New York City region was about 1.6 million domestic travelers and 548,004 international travelers in the month of August, continuing a gradual upward climb since the spring (Chart 7). 

• However, air travel was still only 16% of the level recorded last year when PANYNJ airports saw 8.1 million domestic and 5.2 million international air passengers in August 2019. 
• Across the country, checkpoint data from the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) has also shown modest and gradual increases in air travel, as the number of air travelers reached 36% of prior-year levels in October, up from 29% in August. 

Chart 7 

SOURCE: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, Monthly Statistics. 

City Finances 

• Revenues from taxpayer audits surpassed $1 billion in FY 2020, 25% higher than in FY 2019.  
• As is typical in most years, audits of business taxes from the General Corporation, the Unincorporated Business and Banking tax accounted for most of overall audit revenue. 

• Audits from the General Corporation tax (GCT) contributed to more than 60% of all audit revenue.   

• Audits of the GCT represented 12% of overall GCT tax revenue. 

• Audit revenue from the remaining taxes ranged from $79 million for the commercial rent tax to approximately $6 million for real property transfer taxes. 

Table 1: Audit Revenue, FY 2019 and FY 2020, $ Million 

SOURCE: Office of the New York City Comptroller 

COVID-19 Spending  

• Through November 4th, the City has committed to $2.23 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021. Most of this spending is due to the roll-in of spending from FY 2020.  
• The City incurred $2.62 billion of COVID related expenditures in FY 2020, $1.39 billion below the June modification estimates.  
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $4.85 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021 (Table 2). 

Table 2: COVID-19 Expenditures, FY 2020 and FY 2021 

 SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS. 

COVID-19 Contracts 

• Through November 4th, the City has registered $4.39 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 3).  
• More than sixty percent of the contracts, $2.69 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).  
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $141 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers. 

Table 3: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 11–4-2020 

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data. 

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes. 

Cash Position 

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $5.50 billion as of Wednesday, November 4th. At the same time last year, the City had $3.28 billion (Chart 8). 
• Taking advantage of a provision in the federal CARES Act, the City has deferred payment of payroll taxes since April, which has led to a net improvement in the City’s cash balances of approximately $1.2 billion.  Deferrals will end by December 2020 and deferred payments will be due in 2 installments no later than December 2021 and December 2022.  Deferred payments are accrued to the fiscal year in which they are due. 
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the fourth quarter and projections for cash balances through December 31, 2020, are available here. 

Chart 8 

 SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller 

State Developments 

• New York State released its Mid-year Update to the FY 2021 financial plan on October 30th. Since February, the State has lowered its total receipts forecast for the current fiscal year by $14.9 billion.  
• While total state tax receipts from April through September were $1.1 billion higher than the most recent estimate, the State Division of Budget (DOB) did not change the tax forecast, based in part on “the extraordinary economic, financial, and political uncertainties ahead.” 
• The State continues to assume that the budget will be balanced with $8 billion in recurring, to-be-determined local aid cuts if additional federal relief does not materialize. According to the Mid-year Update, DOB expects to transmit a detailed plan to the Legislature later in the fiscal year. 
• Among other spending revisions, the updated state financial plan reflects $200 million in new ongoing COVID expenses in FY 2022 and beyond and $180 million in additional Medicaid costs in FY 2021 due to spikes in enrollment.  

 Spotlight of the Week

New York City on the Move 

Community mobility data provided by Google shows how dramatically COVID-19 has changed the way New Yorkers live. Time spent outside the home among New Yorkers has been slowly increasing, but with the exception of time spent at parks, New Yorkers are still spending more time at home, and less time out and about.  

Chart S.1 

 SOURCE: GPS mobility data indexed to Jan 3-Feb 6 2020 from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports. 

At its peak in mid-July, time spent at parks was as much as 76% higher than the pre-COVID period. As schools reopened and the weather got colder, this declined dramatically but is still 11% above pre-COVID levels. Time spent at home peaked at 28% above the pre-COVID period, then declined as restrictions were eased and active cases in New York City dropped. Since August, time spent at home has stabilized around 11% above the pre-COVID period. 

Time spent at retail shops and recreation areas is down by 30% compared to the pre-COVID period and has been at this level since July. It was as low as 70% in April during the peak of the outbreak. Time spent at grocery stores and pharmacies is down by 7.5%. It was as low as 30% down in April. Time spent at transit stations is down by 40% compared to the pre-COVID period which is consistent with other transportation data that suggest that New Yorkers are not quite ready to use subways and trains. Transit recovery has been stagnant since August.  

As of October 24th, time spent at work places is still down by 35% compared to the pre-COVID period but a positive trend is visible. It was down by 67% at the height of the outbreak, down by 44% at the beginning of July, and down by 40% at the end of September. New Yorkers are still gradually returning to their places of work.  

The trend on time spent at workplaces among New Yorkers is consistent with other comparable cities. New York City is ahead of San Francisco (51% decline), Boston (40% decline), Atlanta (38% decline), Minneapolis (37% decline) and behind Los Angeles (32% decline), Chicago (31% decline), Phoenix (30% decline), and Houston (27% decline).  

Chart S.2 

SOURCE: GPS mobility data indexed to Jan 3-Feb 6 2020 from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.