New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

Dear New Yorkers,

This upcoming holiday season will be a challenging one for so many New York City families, with COVID cases rising, public schools back to fully remote, and the possibility of further restrictions.

Despite a rough year, there is still a lot to be thankful for. New York City’s slow recovery continues, with unemployment rates, claims for unemployment insurance, and working from home all hitting post-pandemic lows. In the Spotlight this week, a neighborhood breakdown of social assistance programs (SNAP and Cash Assistance). As we head into colder months, it’s important that we keep up our fight for federal aid – especially support for remote learning and relief for our hardest-hit small businesses and non-profits.

Our economic struggles haven’t deterred us. New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever, and their resilience, creativity and determination will be what brings our city back. I hope this weekly newsletter serves as a helpful resource and regular update on the city’s progress as we navigate the challenges ahead.

From my family to yours, I wish you all a safe and happy Thanksgiving. Stay vigilant, and mask up!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

Editor’s Note: New York by the Numbers will be taking a Thanksgiving break, and returning on Monday December 7th.

The Economy

National Indicators

• The seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.9% in October, down a full point from 7.9% in September (Chart 1). According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment rates fell in 37 states, rose in 8, and remained stable in 5, including New York State. The gap between the U.S. and New York State unemployment rates rose to 2.7% in October, widening by a percentage point.
• On a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. economy added 906,000 private sector jobs from September to October.

Chart 1

SOURCE: FRED and NY DOL

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 742,000 for the week ending November 14^th (Chart 2), up from a revised 711,000 last week.
• Continuing U.S. unemployment insurance claims fell to 6,372,000 for the week of November 7^th, down from a revised 6,801,000 last week.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

•  Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) grew to 4,376,847 for the week of October 31^st from 4,143,389 the week prior, an increase of 233,458 (Chart 3). PEUC, enacted as part of the CARES Act, provides 13 weeks of extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out.
•  Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 8,681,647 from 9,433,127 the week prior, a decrease of 751,480. PUA, also enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed, and those with poorly documented income, who are unable to work due to COVID-19.
• Regular, PUA and PEUC continuing claims together covered 19,559,566 unemployed Americans as of the week ending October 31^st (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

New York City

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents fell to 20,456 for the week of November 14^th down from 21,623 the week prior (Chart 4). New York City initial claims have now declined for six consecutive weeks.

Chart 4

SOURCE: New York State DOL

• New York City’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell from 13.9% in September to 13.2% in October, according to the New York State Department of Labor (Chart 5).
• While the unemployment rate for white New York City residents remains below the citywide average, unemployment rates for Asian and Hispanic New Yorkers appear to be falling more quickly. The unemployment rates for New York City Asians fell from 19.2% to 13.4%, for Hispanics from 19.3% to 15.4%, while the rate among Blacks remained roughly flat at 13.5%. Some of these month-to-month changes in racial and ethnic unemployment rates are driven by larger statistical variation in smaller subsamples of the Current Population Survey.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NY DOL and Current Population Survey

• Supplemental COVID-19 data from the Current Population Survey shows about half of employed New York City residents worked from home in May due to COVID-19 (Chart 6). This fell to about one-third in October, as restrictions were lifted and businesses reopened.
• Compared to New York State and the rest of the country, a larger share of New York City residents worked from home. In October, about one-quarter of those employed in New York State and one in five employed in the U.S. worked from home.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, COVID-19 Supplemental Data, via IPUMS

Public Assistance

• As of October, 3.77 million New York City residents were enrolled in Medicaid. Enrollment has grown by more than 391,000 since February.
• Among the five boroughs, enrollment growth has been faster in Queens, as the number of Medicaid beneficiaries grew 13.5% from nearly 900,000 in February to more than 1.0 million in October. (Chart 7)
• On a percentage basis, enrollment growth has been second highest in Staten Island (12.7%), followed by the Bronx (11.2%), Brooklyn (10.5%) and Manhattan (10.5%).

Chart 7

SOURCE: New York State Department of Health, Medicaid Enrollment Databook.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Ridership on the subway and MTA buses has been roughly consistent since about mid-October. Over Monday, November 16^th through Wednesday, November 18^th, an average of 1.77 million people rode the subway and 1.04 million rode MTA buses (Chart 8).
• Compared to last year, ridership was down 70% on the subway and 57% on buses, as of November 18^th.
• At the MTA’s November board meeting, the MTA said that ridership has not rebounded enough to meaningfully improve their financial position. If their situation does not improve, the MTA stated that it would have to implement $1.3 billion in service reductions and cut their workforce by 9,367. As of November, the MTA projects cumulative deficits of $15.9 billion through 2024.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.  Figures for the week ending November 20 include data through Wednesday, November 18.

City Finances

COVID-19 Spending

• Through November 16^th, the City has committed to $2.35 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021.
• Most of this spending is due to the roll-in of spending from FY 2020. The City incurred $2.62 billion of COVID related expenditures in FY 2020, $1.39 billion below the June modification estimates.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $4.97 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: COVID-19 Expenditures, FY 2020 and FY 2021

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through November 16^th, the City has registered $4.41 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 2).
• More than 60% of the contracts, $2.69 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 2: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 11-16-2020

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $4.76 billion as of Wednesday, November 18^th. At the same time last year, the City had $3.51 billion (Chart 9).
• Taking advantage of a provision in the Federal CARES Act, the City has deferred payment of payroll taxes since April, which has led to a net improvement in the City’s cash balances of approximately $1.2 billion. Deferrals will end by December 2020 and deferred payments will be due in 2 installments no later than December 2021 and December 2022. Deferred payments are accrued to the fiscal year in which they are due.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the fourth quarter and projections for cash balances through December 31, 2020, are available here.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

State Developments

• New York State collected $4.3 billion in tax revenue in the month of October, according to the State Comptroller’s cash report. Collections were $155 million below last year, a difference of 3.5%.
• Through the first seven months of state fiscal year 2020-21 (April to October), state tax collections were $3.0 billion below the same period last year. Consumption and use taxes were down by 14.6%, while personal income tax (PIT) revenue was down by 3.8% and business taxes were down by 4.1%. Tax collections to date were $1.4 billion better than originally projected in the Enacted Budget but $432 million worse than projections in the Mid-Year Update.
• Through October, all funds state spending was 2.0% ($1.9 billion) higher than last year, driven by a 2.9% increase in local assistance ($2.1 billion). The state budget for the full fiscal year continues to rely on $8 billion in to-be-determined local aid reductions. However, the State’s most recent financial plan update indicated that reductions will not be outlined until later in the fiscal year and will depend on federal actions or inaction.
• Due to prior allocations of federal coronavirus relief, federal receipts through October were $12.6 billion higher than last year, a difference of 33.4%.

Table 3. New York State All Funds Tax Collections ($ in millions)

SOURCE: New York State Office of the Comptroller.

 Spotlight of the Week

Where Help is Going: SNAP and Cash Assistance

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Cash Assistance program both experienced surges in enrollment from March 1, 2020 to September 1, 2020. SNAP enrollment rose by over 220,000 recipients to a total enrollment of 1,705,337, and Cash Assistance grew by over 66,000 recipients to a total of enrollment of 391,432. SNAP helps low- and moderate-income New Yorkers buy food, and the City’s Cash Assistance program provides temporary cash grants for housing, energy and other expenses to eligible New Yorkers.

SNAP disbursements are based on household size and range from a maximum monthly allotment of $204 for a one-person household to $1,224 for an eight-person household. Cash Assistance disbursements are closely customized to a household based on its size, housing status and quality as well as other occasional standards of need such as pregnancy or moving expenses.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: NYC Open Data

Queens saw the greatest proportional increase in total SNAP recipients from March – September, rising by some 20%. In fact, the top six community districts with the largest proportional increases in SNAP recipient enrollment during the half-year period from March to September were all in Queens: CD-13 (Queens Village, Rosedale), CD-5 (Ridgewood, Glendale, Maspeth), CD-9 (Woodhaven, Richmond Hill), CD-3 (Jackson Heights, North Corona), CD-10 (Ozone Park, Howard Beach) and CD-4 (Elmhurst, South Corona).  Brooklyn and the Bronx, however, had the largest jumps in total SNAP enrollments, with those boroughs adding approximately 71,000 and 65,000 new recipients respectively.  Brooklyn CD-5 (East New York, Starrett City) and Bronx CD-9 (Soundview, Parkchester) were the community districts with the greatest increases in total enrollments in those boroughs.

Proportional increases in Cash Assistance recipients also rose at the highest rate in Queens, which saw a 30% jump in total enrollments from March – September. CD-6 (Forest Hills, Rego Park) was the Queens community district with the highest rate of increase. Manhattan was next highest with a 22% increase and CD-8 (Upper East Side) registered a 44% increase in Cash Assistance recipients, the highest in that borough and the third highest of any community district citywide. The largest additions to total Cash Assistance enrollment were in the Bronx and Brooklyn which added approximately 21,000 and 20,000 new recipients respectively. Bronx CD-9 (Soundview, Parkchester) and Brooklyn CD-5 (East New York, Starrett City) were the community districts in those boroughs with the largest jumps in total Cash Assistance enrollments.

Households receiving SNAP or Cash Assistance benefits must periodically recertify their eligibility for these benefits. However, shortly after the start of the pandemic period on March 24^th, the New York State Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance ordered automatic recertifications for New Yorkers enrolled in both programs. In New York City, all SNAP and Cash Assistance recipients with recertification dates that fell on or before August 31, 2020 were granted six month recertifications. This administrative adjustment likely reduced attrition from both programs at the height of the public health emergency and bolstered the distribution of SNAP benefits and cash assistance citywide.

Chart S.2 Expansion of SNAP and CA recipients by Community District, March-September 2020