New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

Rising unemployment claims nationally and here in New York City confirm that additional restrictions put in place in the face of rising COVID cases will slow the economy’s recovery until widespread immunizations are possible. One company’s vaccine received FDA approval last week, with initial distribution set to begin this week. This encouraging news points the way toward a more robust recovery soon.

But as this week’s Spotlight shows us, the gains in jobs and income prior to the pandemic did not benefit all parts of our City equally. Manhattan continues to account for over 70 percent of economic activity in the City, with an average per capita income over 5 times that in the Bronx.  As we recover from the economic devastation of the COVID pandemic, we must do more to ensure the benefits are broadly shared.

Our economic struggles haven’t deterred us. New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever, and their resilience, creativity and determination will be what brings our city back. I hope this weekly newsletter serves as a helpful resource and regular update on the city’s progress as we navigate the challenges ahead.

Stay vigilant, and mask up!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• November inflation remained low according to Consumer Price Index figures released Thursday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with November prices rising just 0.2% from last month, and only 1.2% from a year ago (Table 1).
• These modest changes, however, mask large changes in components of the index. Fuel oil prices remain 26.4% lower than a year ago, airfares 17% lower, and used car prices 10.9% higher. Fuel prices and airfares remain down despite recent rebounds; on a seasonally adjusted basis airfares rose 3.5% in November, and fuel oil prices rose 3.6%.

Table 1: Annual and Monthly Changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI)

SOURCE: BLS

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims jumped to a seasonally adjusted 853,000 the week ending December 5^th (Chart 1), an increase of 137,000 and the largest jump in claims since the March peak of the pandemic.
• Continuing U.S. unemployment insurance claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 5,757,000 for the week of November 28^th, up over half a million from last week.

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 4,532,876 for the week of November 21^st, from 4,569,016 the week prior (Chart 2). PEUC, enacted as part of the CARES Act, provides 13 weeks of extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. Unless reauthorized by Congress, PEUC will expire December 26^th, ending unemployment benefits for 4.5 million Americans.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 8,555,763 from 8,869,502 the week prior. PUA, also enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed, and those with poorly documented income, who are unable to work due to COVID-19. PUA benefits are also set to expire December 26^th, ending unemployment benefits for additional 8.5 million Americans.
• Regular, PUA and PEUC continuing claims together covered 18,336,196 unemployed Americans as of the week ending November 21^st (Chart 2). Over 13 million of them are set to lose their benefits before the end of the year.

 Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor.

New York City

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents rose to 24,173 for the week of December 5^th, up from 19,293 the week prior (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: New York State Dept. of Labor

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Over the last two weeks, weekday ridership on the subway and MTA buses has continued to be below ridership levels recorded earlier in the fall (Chart 4).
• On Monday, December 7^th and Tuesday, December 8^th, ridership averaged 1.68 million on the subway and about 984,000 on MTA buses.
• As of Tuesday, December 8^th, subway ridership was 71% below last year, while bus ridership was down by 57%.

Chart 4

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.  Figures for the week ending December 11 include data through Tuesday, December 8.

MTA Bridge and Tunnel Crossings

• In recent weeks, traffic volume on MTA bridge and tunnel crossings has also declined. Following a dip in traffic around Thanksgiving, daily crossings have averaged about 700,000, the lowest level since June and roughly 20% below the same period last year. (Chart 5)

Chart 5

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

City Finances

City Taxes

• Withholding data shows the disproportionate impact the pandemic has had on low-wage workers (Table 2).
• While the number of withholding filers is down by almost 8% year to date through November compared to the prior year, total amount withheld for taxes has declined by only 2.7%.
• The average withholding amount, a barometer of the average wage or salary, has actually increased by 5.6%, as lower-wage workers lost their jobs and dropped out of the withholding data, while higher-wage workers remained employed and continued to file.

Table 2: Personal Income Tax Withholding

SOURCE:  NYS Dept. Of Taxation and Finance as calculated by Office of the NYC Comptroller

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s November 2020 Financial Plan includes $2.75 billion of COVID related spending, an increase of $2.63 billion from the June Plan estimate.
• Part of the increase is from a roll-in of FY 2020 expenditures which were $1.39 billion less than budgeted.
• Through December 9^th, the City has committed to $2.50 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $5.12 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021 (Table 3).

Table 3: COVID-19 Expenditures, FY 2020 and FY 2021

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through December 9^th, City has registered $4.43 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 4).
• More than 60% of the contracts, $2.68 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 4: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 12-9-2020

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $3.18 billion as of Wednesday, December 9^th. At the same time last year, the City had $2.31 billion (Chart 6).
• Taking advantage of a provision in the federal CARES Act, the City has deferred payment of payroll taxes since April, which has led to a net improvement in the City’s cash balances of approximately $1.35 billion. Deferrals will end by December 2020 and deferred payments will be due in 2 installments no later than December 2021 and December 2022. Deferred payments are accrued to the fiscal year in which they are due.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the first quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through March 31, 2021, are available here.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

Borough Level Changes In NYC Per Capita Income & GDP

As we approach the end of a very hard year, county level gross domestic product (GDP) estimates just released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provide a reminder of the state of New York City’s economy when the year began.

Gross domestic product measures the total value of goods and services produced in a region. Total New York City GDP rose 1.2% in 2019, to $883.6 billion (Table S.1). Manhattan, with its dense concentration of businesses in Midtown and Downtown, accounted for $635 billion, or 72%, of New York City’s total 2019 GDP, and grew by 1.9% from 2018 to 2019. As measured by the BEA, GDP declined slightly in the Bronx (-0.1%), Queens (-0.8%) and Brooklyn (-0.8%) in 2019, and grew a robust 4.0% in Staten Island.

Table S.1: NYC GDP Growth, by Borough ($1,000s)

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Per capita personal income, which measures current income from all sources of residents (except for capital gains) regardless of where it was earned, grew robustly from 2018 to 2019 across the five boroughs (Table S.2). On a percentage basis, per capita income grew fastest in Queens (5.4%) and Brooklyn (5.1%), but in absolute terms per capita income grew fastest in Manhattan, where average incomes rose by $6,850 from 2018 to 2019. Manhattan personal income per person was $197,847 in 2019, roughly five times that of the $39,711 in the Bronx.

Table S.2: Growth In NYC Personal Income Per Capita, by Borough

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

New York City GDP will certainly show a steep downturn in all boroughs when the data for 2020 is released next December; the story on personal income per capita will be more complex, as the impact of job losses on incomes has been to some extent offset by federal aid.