New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

This past week dawned brighter as a new Administration took office in Washington, promising a more decent, compassionate – and more competent and science-based – federal government again. President Biden has presented a real national plan for vaccination, and a rescue package for the economy is on its way.

Here at home our economic recovery has slowed, and the City’s vaccination rollout has proven bumpy as supplies run low and New Yorkers are forced to navigate a complicated, glitchy sign-up process. Widespread vaccination is our path out of this crisis, and so I’ve called for the City to simplify registration and make vaccination data transparent, and for the federal government to immediately increase vaccine supply.

New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever, and their resilience, creativity and determination will be what brings our city back.

Stay vigilant, and mask up!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• BLS estimates released Thursday show median U.S. weekly earnings of full-time workers remained elevated at $983/week in the 4^th quarter of 2020 (Chart 1).
• Weekly earnings peaked at an all-time high of $1,009 in the second quarter of 2020, as many higher-paid employees worked remotely, while many lower-wage service employees lost their jobs due to pandemic-related closures. The combination pushed up average and median earnings.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The Federal government made about 4.3 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available for distribution to states for the week of January 25^th, about the same pace as the previous three weeks (Chart 2). These allocations will have to accelerate to make timely vaccination available to all Americans.

Chart 2

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 900,000 for the week of January 16^th, down 26,000 from a revised 926,000 the prior week (Chart 3). Claims are still trending upwards from a recent low of 711,000 in November.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 14,501,147 unemployed Americans as of the week ending January 2^nd, down from 16,991,286 the week prior (Chart 4).
• Unadjusted continuing regular unemployment insurance claims fell to 5,563,048 for the week of January 9^th, a decrease of 203,750 from the prior week’s 5,766,798.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell by over 1 million to 3,026,952 for the week of January 2^nd, down from 4,166,261 the week prior. PEUC, enacted as part of the CARES Act, provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) showed an even larger decline, falling to 5,707,397 from 7,442,888 the week prior. PUA, also enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

New York City

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents fell to 24,644 for the week of January 16^th, down from 31,926 the week prior (Chart 5). However, weekly claims remain well above the recent low of 17,104 from the week of December 19^th.

Chart 5

SOURCE: N.Y. Dept. of Labor

• December data released January 21^st by the New York Department of Labor show New York City’s economic recovery stalled in December as COVID cases rose, indoor dining stopped, and colder temperatures put a damper on outdoor activities. While the unemployment rate fell to 11.0%, from 11.9% in November, private employment dipped for the first time since the onset of the pandemic (Chart 6).

Chart 6

SOURCE: NY Department of Labor

Vaccines

• Daily COVID vaccines doses administered by New York City plateaued over the last week and the 7-day average dipped below 30,000 amid reports that locally available vaccine supplies are running out (Chart 7).

Chart 7

SOURCE: NYC Health

• As of Thursday, January 21^st New York City had administered almost 7 COVID vaccines per 100 residents, more doses per capita than most other urban areas that publish timely data (Chart 8).

Chart 8

SOURCE: Current data as of 1/21/2021 from state, county and city health departments.
NOTE: Some areas have not divulged or updated their vaccine administration statistics and are therefore could not be included this chart.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Over the last few weeks, average weekday ridership has continued to hover around 1.6 million on the subway and just under 1 million on MTA buses (Chart 9).
• Amid declines in ridership and fare revenue, the MTA recently announced that it would delay a planned fare increase due to the pandemic’s economic impact on frontline workers who depend on mass transit.
• As of Wednesday, January 20^th, subway ridership was 71% below last year and bus ridership was down 60%.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.
NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending January 22 include data through Wednesday, January 20.

City Finances

• Hotel tax revenues show the devastating impact the pandemic has had on the New York City hospitality industry. Hotel occupancy tax revenue plunged from over $178 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 to less than $15 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 (Chart 10). While some City hotels have remained open to visitors, the homeless, and convalescent COVID patients, most are closed or unoccupied.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller FMS

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021.
• Through January 20^th, the City has committed to $3.01 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 1). Of this $2.28 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $5.63 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 1: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through January 20^th, New York City has registered $4.67 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 2).
• About 60% of the contracts, $2.81 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 2: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 1-20-2021

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.
NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $11.17 billion as of Wednesday, January 20^th. At the same time last year, the City had $9.76 billion (Chart 11).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the first quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through March 31, 2021, are available here.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

State Budget: One-Year Boost in School Aid, But Reductions in Later Years

On January 19^th, the Governor unveiled an Executive Budget for state fiscal year (SFY) 2021-22 that appeared to contain some good news: a year-over-year increase in education aid of 7.1%.  Despite the increase in funding in the coming year, however, New York City and other school districts face a severe fiscal cliff in FY 2023, with total budgeted aid falling by 8.7%, from $31.7 billion in FY 2022 to about $29.0 billion in FY 2023 (Chart S.1).

Chart S.1

* Actual
NOTE: Includes actual and projected funding for all school districts in New York State. The New York State Division of Budget does not publish outyear school aid projections for individual school districts.
SOURCE: New York State Division of Budget, FY 2022 Executive Budget Financial Plan and prior financial plan updates.

Under the Executive Budget, state school aid to New York City would increase by a full 13%, or $1.5 billion, in FY 2022, largely funded by federal COVID-19 relief approved by Congress in December. Preliminary analysis indicates that the proposed level of school aid could be $547 million higher than currently assumed in the City’s FY 2022 Preliminary Budget. However, the short-term federal COVID-19 relief was intended to address higher costs and new needs for schools related to the pandemic, and the Executive Budget proposes to reduce state support for New York City schools on a long-term, recurring basis.

Under the state budget proposal, New York City would effectively lose roughly $150 million in annual state reimbursement for the School Tax Relief (STAR) property tax exemption and face the consolidation and permanent reduction of 11 so-called “expense-based” school aid categories, including transportation aid, textbook aid, and software aid. Compared to the current assumption in the City’s financial plan, expense-based school aid would be $569 million less than projected in FY 2022. State Foundation Aid would also be frozen for the second consecutive year. These cuts would be more than made up for by the infusion of federal aid in FY 2022 – but once that aid is gone, the City would face yet another long-term reduction in the State’s share of funding for education.