New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

The City and its region, like many other urban areas, continue to struggle with a slow jobs recovery, with initial unemployment claims ticking up again, and a return to working from home for many workers.  The number of recipients of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits rose again in December after falling for 2 months.  That’s why yesterday I released a call for a comprehensive food security plan to combat hunger in our City. Neither immigration status nor any other factor should mean families go hungry.

Stay vigilant, and mask up!

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• The U.S. unemployment rate fell 0.4% to 6.3% in January, as the nation added 49,000 payroll jobs, according to BLS figures released February 5^th.
• BLS figures released February 4^th show December unemployment rose from a year ago in 379 out of 389 metropolitan areas (Chart 1). December unemployment was highest in tourism-dependent Las Vegas (10.4%), and the Los Angeles metropolitan area (9.9%).
• The New York/Newark/Jersey City metropolitan area had the 4^th highest rate among major metropolitan areas, at 8.4%. Previously released figures showed New York City’s unemployment rate was 11% in December, well above that of the metropolitan area.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• The Federal government made more than 5.5 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available for distribution to states for the week of February 8^th (Chart 2).
• The 462,000 additional doses planned for allocation this week represent a 9% increase from the prior week, and a significant increase from January.
• Johnson & Johnson submitted their COVID vaccine to the F.D.A. for an emergency use authorization that is expected to be granted before the end of February. This should accelerate vaccine deliveries further.

Chart 2

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 779,000 for the week of January 30^th, down 33,000 from a revised 812,000 the prior week, and the fewest initial claims since the week of November 28^th (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 16,043,042 unemployed Americans as of the week ending January 16^th, down from 16,720,371 the week prior (Chart 4).
• Unadjusted continuing regular unemployment insurance claims fell to 5,094,605 for the week of January 16^th, down from the prior week’s 5,222,231.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 3,603,098 for the week of January 16^th, down from 3,893,008 the week prior. PEUC, enacted as part of the CARES Act, provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 7,217,713 from 7,343,682 the week prior. PUA, also enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

New York City

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents climbed to 30,285 for the week of January 30^th, up from 25,285 the week prior (Chart 5). Claims continue to trend upward from mid-December lows.

Chart 5

SOURCE: N.Y. Dept. of Labor

• Unemployment rates for New York City residents continued to trend down in December, but remain elevated from pre-pandemic levels, particularly for people of color. Three-month average unemployment rates declined to 14.3% for Black workers in New York City, 14% for Hispanics, 11.3% for Asians, and 9.4% for white workers.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Current Population Survey

• With COVID infections rising, more Americans worked from home in November and December, a reversal of the previous trend toward returning to the office.
• As of December, 39% of New York City residents, 30% of New York State residents, and 24% of employed Americans worked from home due to COVID.
• The share of Americans working from home reached post-lockdown lows in October, when 32% of New York City residents, 25% of New York State residents, and 21% of Americans worked from home.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, COVID supplement

Vaccines

• Daily COVID vaccine first doses administered in New York City reached a seven-day average of 28,459 on January 20^th, but have since been falling due to supply shortages and disruption from last Monday’s snowstorm, when fewer than 1,000 first doses were administered (Chart 6).
• The seven-day average number of second doses rose steadily through last week, reaching more than 8,167 daily on January 30^th, but also declined with last week’s snowstorm.

Chart  8

SOURCE: NYC Health

• As of Thursday, January 28^th New York City had administered 10.8 COVID vaccines per 100 residents, more doses per capita than most other urban areas that publish timely data (Chart 9).

Chart 9

SOURCE: Current data as of 2/5/2021 from state, county and city health departments.

NOTE: Some areas have not divulged or updated their vaccine administration statistics and are therefore could not be included this chart.

Public Assistance

• After falling for two months, the number of New York City residents receiving Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits rose 0.7% to nearly 1.65 million in December (Chart 10). The number of SNAP beneficiaries has grown by 164,699 individuals since February.
• The number of monthly cash assistance recipients has fallen for three consecutive months but remained 14.8% above pre-pandemic levels in December.

Chart 10

SOURCE: New York City Department of Human Resources, HRA Monthly Fact Sheets.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• One of the largest snowstorms in New York City history, and the subsequent suspension of above ground subway service, caused transit ridership to plummet on Monday, February 1^st. (Chart 11)
• Following the storm and cleanup, subway ridership was down 70% and bus ridership was down 62%, as compared to last year as of Wednesday, February 3^rd.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending February 5 include data through Wednesday, February 3.

Taxis and For-hire Vehicles

• The pandemic has caused steep losses for both traditional taxis and ride-hailing apps. However, the loss has been worse for taxis, exacerbating the taxi industry’s previously declining share of the market. As of December 2020, the number of average daily trips was down 79% for green and yellow taxis and 48% for high-volume for-hire vehicles (FHV) such as Lyft, Uber and Via, compared to one year prior (Chart 12).
• Reversing gains since the spring, both segments of the market saw declines in the last two months of 2020. The number of average daily trips recorded by green and yellow taxis dropped to 49,826 in December, down from a recent high of 57,288 in October and far below the pre-pandemic level of 230,959 in February. After reaching a recent peak of 427,396 in October, average daily FHV trips fell to 374,990 in December.

Chart 12

SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.

City Finances

• January personal income tax (PIT) collections were strong, especially estimated payments related to capital gains and business income. Fiscal year to date through January, non-withholding revenue is 5.5% higher compared to a year ago (Table 1).
• Withholding payments, which are closely tied to monthly wages, are almost 7% lower. As a result, overall personal income tax revenue remains 3.9% lower compared to 2020.
• While still declining, PIT collections are about $1.3 billion higher than initially forecast by the City in June. A record year on Wall Street has helped offset the decline in PIT collections from massive pandemic related job losses.

Table 1: Year-to-Date Personal Income Tax Collections (July through January) in Fiscal Years 2020 and 2021

SOURCE: NYS Dept of Taxation and Finance, Office of the NYC Comptroller Calculations.

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 2).
• Through February 3^rd, the City has committed to $2.94 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021. Of this $2.37 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $5.56 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 2: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through February 3^rd, the City has registered $4.70 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 3).
• About 60% of the contracts, or $2.81 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 3: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 2-3-2021

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $10.35 billion as of Thursday, February 4^th. At the same time last year, the City had $8.96 billion (Chart 13).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the first quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through March 31, 2021, are available here.

Chart 13

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

The Race to Vaccinate in New York City

Because of its size, New York City will be responsible for vaccinating a large share of the U.S. population, especially in the first phases of vaccine eligibility.  The residents and workers in health care occupations that are eligible for vaccination in New York City account for 3.8% of healthcare jobs nationwide; 2.4% of the nation’s older adults live in the five boroughs. One specific frontline occupation with a particularly large presence in New York City are the nearly 167,000 home health aides which account for more than 23% of all home health aide jobs in the U.S.  These heavy burdens underscore the need for the Federal government to substantially increase New York City’s vaccine allocation.  But to date, New York City has only received 2.6% of the nation’s vaccine allocation.

New York City has administered 654,188 first doses of COVID-19 vaccine as of February 4th. With an estimated population of over 2.7 million currently eligible residents and workers that qualify for vaccination under phases 1a and 1b of the City’s vaccine eligibility criteria, much work remains to be done to ensure all eligible New Yorkers are offered a vaccine.

As shown in Chart S.1, a pool of approximately 1.2 million older adults, age 65 and above, account for the largest share of the eligible population for vaccination, which we define to include people in phase 1a and 1b occupations that are New York City residents or non-resident workers. Approximately 107,000 older adults living in New York City continue to work in phase 1a and 1b occupations and are grouped with their occupations. The remaining older adults in our estimate either hold jobs in other occupations or have retired.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from the 2019 American Community Survey

There are more than 233,000 non-residents in phase 1a or 1b occupations with a workplace in New York City and this cohort accounts for 8.5% of the eligible population. As of February 4th, more than 25% of doses administered by the City have gone to non-residents. It is unclear how many of those non-residents held phase 1a or 1b occupations, however, the rules around vaccination eligibility, which vary by vaccine site, have been modified at some locations to restrict non-resident access to vaccines in New York City. Two healthcare oriented occupational groups – healthcare practitioners and healthcare support occupations – together account for the next largest share of the eligible population followed by education occupations and food preparation and serving occupations. The addition of restaurant workers and taxi drivers last week widened the pool of eligibility by more than 407,000 New York City residents and workers. Our estimate does not include New York City residents with underlying conditions announced by the State on February 5^th.