New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

The economy remains stuck in the winter doldrums, with small business revenues down and weekly new unemployment claims still high.  Property owners are struggling to make property tax payments.

But Spring is around the corner, and with it will come accelerated vaccinations and much-needed federal budget relief.  Meanwhile, New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever, and their resilience, creativity and determination will be what brings our city back!

Stay vigilant, and mask up!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• The Federal government made approximately 6.75 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available for distribution to states for the week of February 22^nd, up from 5.5 million last week (Chart 1). Weekly distribution is up about 60% from January.
• The CDC reports 74,979,165 COVID vaccine doses have been distributed nationally as of February 20^th, of which 61,289,500 have been administered.
• The FDA’s advisory committee on Vaccines and Related Biological products will meet on Friday, February 26^th to consider an Emergency Use Authorization for Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose COVID vaccine. Approval is expected, and the company has agreed to supply 100 million doses by August, enough to vaccinate almost a third of Americans.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 861,000 for the week of February 13^th, from 848,000 last week, and 812,000 the week prior (Chart 2).

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 16,785,284 unemployed Americans as of the week ending January 30^th, down from 17,916,601 the week prior (Chart 3).
• Unadjusted continuing regular unemployment insurance claims fell to 4,945,014 for the week of February 6^th, down from the prior week’s 5,038,590.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 4,061,305 for the week of January 30^th, after jumping over a million to 4,779,341 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 7,685,389 from 7,943,448 the week prior.

 Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES act.

New York City

Vaccines

• Seven-day average vaccine doses administered in New York City dipped to under 16,000 for first doses, and under 20,000 for second doses (Chart 4).
• First doses administered peaked at over 28,000 daily in mid-January before supplies ran short and snow slowed efforts. Second doses administered peaked at over 24,000 early last week.

Chart  4

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

• As of Thursday, February 18^th New York City had administered over 1.4 million vaccine doses, and 3 COVID doses per 100 residents, more doses per capita than most other urban areas that publish timely data (Chart 5).

Chart 5

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller based on data as of 2/19/2021 from state, county and city health departments.

NOTE: Some areas have not divulged or updated their vaccine administration statistics and are therefore could not be included this chart.

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents fell to 22,450 for the week of February 13^th, down from 23,451 last week, and 30,285 the week prior (Chart 6). Claims reached a winter peak of 31,926 the week of January 9^th.

Chart 6

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Labor

• New York City small business revenue has resumed its decline, following an early January bump coinciding with stimulus payments. Compared to the first week of 2020, February 12^th small business revenue was down 76% in Manhattan, 49% in Queens, 46% in Brooklyn, 43% in Staten Island and 36% in the Bronx (Chart 7).

Chart 7

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, COVID supplement

Public Assistance

• Medicaid enrollment in New York City has experienced sustained growth since the spring, reaching 3.8 million New Yorkers in December, an increase of about 430,000 since last February (Chart 8).
• In the month of December alone, the number of Medicaid beneficiaries rose by more than 51,000.

Chart 8

SOURCE: New York State Department of Health, NYS Medicaid Enrollment Databook.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Ridership averaged 1.68 million on the subway and roughly 879,000 on MTA buses over Tuesday, February 16^th and Wednesday, February 17^th, following President’s Day weekend. (Chart 9)
• Average weekday transit ridership continues to trend below levels reached in the late fall.
• Subway ridership was down 68% and bus ridership was down 59%, as compared to last year, as of Wednesday, February 17^th.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending February 19 include data through Wednesday, February 17.

MTA Bridge and Tunnel Crossings

• Over the last few weeks, average weekly vehicle crossings over MTA bridges and tunnels have been roughly 20% below levels recorded last year, excluding holidays and snowstorms (Chart 10).
• Similar to transit ridership trends, average vehicle crossings declined in the late fall and have yet to recover.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

MTA Finances

• Better than anticipated financial results in 2020 and additional federal relief have allowed the MTA to close its projected deficit for 2021 and defer service reductions (Chart 11).
• However, the MTA faces a cumulative deficit of $8 billion over the following three years and the prospect that ridership may not fully recover for several years, if at all. In an analysis prepared for the MTA, McKinsey & Company projects that the “new normal” ridership level will be between 80% and 92% of pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

City Finances

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 1).
• Through February 17^th, the City has committed to $3.02 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021. Of this $2.41 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $5.64 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 1: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through February 17^th, the City has registered $4.73 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 2).
• Almost 60% of the contracts, or $2.81 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 2: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 2-17-2021

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $9.32 billion as of Wednesday, February 17^th. At the same time last year, the City had $7.80 billion (Chart 12).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the first quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through March 31, 2021, are available here.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

State Developments

• New York State collected $11.4 billion in tax revenue in the month of January, according to the State Comptroller’s cash report, $551 million higher than last year (Table 3).
• Despite strong collections in January, total state tax collections were down $1.98 billion for the fiscal year to date (April-January). Consumption and use taxes were down by 12%, while personal income tax (PIT) revenue was flat and business taxes were down by 5%.
• However, tax collections to date were $4.4 billion higher than originally projected in the Enacted Budget and $1.7 billion above projections in the recently released Executive Budget, largely due to better than anticipated PIT revenue.
• In the month of January, PIT withholdings were 8% below last year ($4.6 billion vs $5.0 billion) while estimated payments were up 25% ($4.8 billion vs $3.8 billion).

Table 3. New York State All Funds Tax Collections ($ in millions)

SOURCE: New York State Office of the Comptroller.

Spotlight of the Week

Property Owners are Falling Behind on Property Tax Payments

Recently reported data on delinquencies for real estate taxes shows that, as of February, $1.3 billion in real estate tax payments were overdue – equal to 4.5% of the total $29.6 billion due. This figure includes payments that were due in January 2021, along with payments outstanding from previous quarters.

Prior to February, the delinquency rate for payments due in the first half of the tax year (the vast majority of which are due by July 1st) was 2.7%, already considerably above the FY 2020 figure of 1.8%, as well as the previous peak of 2.17% in 2011, following the Great Recession of 2008-09. The Comptroller’s Office expects the final delinquency rate for FY 2021 will be approximately 3.0%, as late payments reduce outstanding amounts due.

Manhattan, which accounts for 63% of all property taxes due, had a slightly lower overall delinquency rate of 4.1%, compared to 5.2% for the remaining four boroughs collectively (Table S.1).

Table S.1 Property Tax Delinquencies, Manhattan and Outer Boroughs

Source: NYC Department of Finance, Office of the NYC Comptroller calculations

Manhattan’s lower overall rate was driven by lower delinquency rates for commercial properties (Class 4) as well as for (Class 2) residential coops, condos and rental buildings.

Citywide, the delinquent amount for commercial properties totaled $740 million, or just over half of the overall delinquent amount. For commercial properties, which include offices, stores and hotels, the delinquency rate was 4.9% in Manhattan versus 7.9% outside Manhattan, although the total dollar amount outstanding in Manhattan, $484 million, was almost double the amount delinquent outside Manhattan.

Office buildings, the largest single property type within the commercial property class, had nearly $260 million dollars of payments outstanding, for a delinquency rate of 4.1% (Table S.2).

Table S.2  Citywide Commercial Property Tax Delinquencies

Source: NYC Department of Finance, Office of the NYC Comptroller calculations

As a result of the pandemic’s devastating impact on tourism, hotel properties had some of the highest rates among all property types. Overall, the citywide delinquency rate for hotels was nearly 10%. In Brooklyn, nearly 1 of every 5 dollars due from hotels is unpaid.

Store building delinquencies averaged 5.7% citywide. Brooklyn again had the highest rate, at 7.1%, further contributing to the higher overall delinquency rates for commercial properties outside Manhattan. For all other commercial property types (factories, warehouses, garages and other uses) the delinquency rate was 6.9%.

Delinquency rates for Class 2 (coops, condos and multi-family rental buildings) were 4.0%. As with commercial properties, the rate was also lower in Manhattan compared to the rest of the City, 3.6% vs 4.9%. Manhattan coops condos and rentals account for a greater share of taxes due, so the overall amount delinquent in Manhattan was almost double that in the rest of the City. Condominiums had higher delinquency rates than apartments or coops, since single-owner units are more likely to fall behind in payments than multi-tenanted buildings. Outside of Manhattan, the Bronx and Brooklyn had high delinquency rates among smaller walk-up apartment buildings.

Manhattan’s delinquency rate for to 1-3 family homes, at 6.9% was higher than the rest of the City at 4.8%. The overall amount delinquent in Manhattan, however, was relatively small, $15 million compared to $155 million outside Manhattan. These types of homes are far more common outside Manhattan.

Delinquencies among utility properties were negligible citywide.