New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

Spring brings hope.  Federal vaccine deliveries are up and New York City unemployment insurance claims are down.  President Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan passed the House Friday night, promising aid to New Yorkers and fiscal relief to our state and city government.  This week I outlined a set of priorities for how stimulus funds should be used to help New Yorkers who are struggling to pay the rent and feed their families, jump-start our economy, and help build a better economy for the future. Nothing could be more important than using one-time federal stimulus to build a better future for our City.

Until next week — stay vigilant, and mask up!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• Federal stimulus payments drove January U.S. personal income to an all time high of $21.5 trillion, a 10% increase from December, according to BEA figures released Friday (Chart 1).
• Personal savings as a share of disposable income rose to 20%, from an already elevated 13.5% in December, a rate that was just 8% before the pandemic.

Chart 1

SOURCE: St. Louis Fed, FRED database

• The Federal government made approximately 7.5 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available for distribution to states for the week of March 1^st, up from 6.75 million last week (Chart 2). Weekly distribution is up about 77% from January.
• The CDC reports 94,300,910 COVID vaccine doses have been distributed nationally as of February 26^th, of which 70,454,464 have been administered, an increase of 9 million from last week.
• The FDA approved an Emergency Use Authorization for Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose COVID vaccine on Saturday. The company plans on delivering 20 million doses in March and 100 million doses before July.

Chart 2

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 730,000 for the week of February 20^th, down from a revised 841,000 last week (Chart 3). Weekly claims peaked at almost 7 million in March, but were under 300,000 weekly prior to the pandemic.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 17,556,188 unemployed Americans as of the week ending February 6^th, down from 16,786,707 the week prior (Chart 4).
• Unadjusted continuing regular unemployment insurance claims fell to 4,828,027 for the week of February 13^th, down from the prior week’s 4,971,347.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) jumped to 5,065,890 for the week of February 6^th, an increase of over 1 million from 4,062,189 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 7,518,951 from 7,685,857 the week prior.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES act.

New York City

Vaccines

• Seven-day average first vaccine doses administered in New York City rebounded to almost 11,000, after falling closer to 9,000 earlier last week (Chart 5). Accelerating federal vaccine allocations should allow a much faster pace of vaccination in the coming weeks.
• Second doses administered declined to 16,000 from a high of about 24,000 around Valentine’s day. This second dose peak lagged the peak in first doses by 3-4 weeks, as would be expected given the dosing regimen.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

• As of Thursday, February 25^th New York City had administered over 1.67 million vaccine doses, and 20.1 COVID doses per 100 residents, more doses per capita than most other urban areas that publish timely data (Chart 6).

Chart 6

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller based on data as of 2/26/2021 from state, county and city health departments.

NOTE: Some areas have not divulged or updated their vaccine administration statistics and are therefore could not be included this chart.

Economy

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents fell to 18,491 for the week of February 20^th, down from 22,450 last week, and the third weekly decline in a row (Chart 7). Initial claims peaked at 184,000 the week of April 11^th, but were less than 7,000 weekly immediately prior to the pandemic.

Chart 7

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Labor

• New York City’s Department of Buildings approved 227 new buildings, 17 demolitions and 1,114 alterations the week of February 9^th (Chart 8). After a dramatic collapse in April and May, permits for new buildings and demolitions rebounded but are still are down about 20% from pre-pandemic rates. Weekly alterations approved also rebounded, but remain down about 40%, but the decline is in line with the pre-pandemic downward trend.

Chart 8

SOURCE: NYC Dept. Of Buildings, via Opendata

• Time spent outside the home remains well below pre-pandemic levels, but time spent at workplaces, in transit, and in parks began rising in mid-February (Chart 9).

Chart 9

SOURCE: GPS mobility data indexed to 1/3/2020 to 2/6/2020, from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Subway and MTA bus ridership ticked up last week, following President’s Day and a snowstorm in the prior week (Chart 10).
• While average ridership remains below levels in the fall, on Wednesday, February 24^th subway ridership climbed above 1.8 million for the first time since November 20^th.
• As of last Wednesday, subway ridership was down 68% from last year and bus ridership was down 56%.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending February 26 include data through Wednesday, February 24.

NYC Ferry

• In the fourth quarter of 2020 (October-December), average daily ridership on the NYC Ferry was 7,411 on weekdays, a decline of 48% over the prior year, similar to the 51% drop in the third quarter. However, weekend ridership was down by 15%, an improvement over the 38% drop last quarter.
• Weekday declines were most prominent on the East River route as ridership fell 56% from a daily average of 5,990 to 2,609. In contrast, weekday ridership was down by only 18% on the Astoria route (Chart 11).

Chart 11

NOTE: The Lower East Side route was reconfigured on May 18, 2020.

SOURCE: NYC Ferry, Quarterly Reports.

City Finances

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 1).
• Through February 24^th, the City has committed to $3.08 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021. Of this $2.49 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $5.70 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 1: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through February 24^th, the City has registered $4.75 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 2).
• Almost 60% of the contracts, or $2.81 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 2: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 2-24-2021

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $7.85 billion as of Thursday, February 24th. At the same time last year, the City had $5.92 billion (Chart 12).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

Spotlight will return next week.