New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

The pace of vaccination is picking up. Look for economic and employment growth to follow over the coming weeks and months.

But for now unemployment remains high, especially for the young adults in the Spotlight this week. At a time when we should investing in education so young New Yorkers can take advantage of the good times ahead, CUNY enrollment is down and staff are being laid off. It is short sighted, and short changes those who have already been hit hardest by the economic impacts of the pandemic. Speak up for CUNY!

Until next week — stay vigilant, and mask up!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• U.S. private employment rose by 465,000 to 121.6 million in February, but it remains over 8 million below last year’s February peak (Chart 1).
• The U.S. unemployment rate fell slightly to 6.2% in February, from 6.3% in January, after spiking at 14.8% in April.

Chart 1

SOURCE: St. Louis Fed, FRED database

• The approval of Johnson & Johnson’s COVID vaccine brought the total number of vaccines available for U.S. delivery to 10.3 million for the week of March 1^st, more than doubling weekly supplies from January (data for weekly supplies of the J&J vaccine were not available for the week of March 8).
• Excluding Johnson and Johnson, the Federal government made approximately 7.66 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available for distribution to states for the week of March 8^th, up from 7.5 million last week (Chart 2).

Chart 2

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

NOTE: Johnson & Johnson vaccine allocation data for the week of 3/8 was not posted as of March 5th.

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims rose slightly to a seasonally adjusted 745,000 for the week of February 27^th, up from a revised 736,000 last week (Chart 3). Weekly claims peaked at almost 7 million in March, but were under 300,000 weekly prior to the pandemic.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 16,623,851 unemployed Americans as of the week ending February 13^th, down almost a million from 17,558,965 the week prior (Chart 4).
• Unadjusted continuing regular unemployment insurance claims fell to 4,806,269 for the week of February 20^th, down from a revised 4,828,624 the prior week.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 4,466,916 for the week of February 13^th. PEUC claims have been jumping and falling by over half a million claims on alternating weeks for five weeks straight, suggesting the changes may be driven by processing issues.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 7,328,311 from 7,520,114 the week prior.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES act.

New York City

Vaccines

• The number of first Covid vaccine doses administered surged to a 7-day average over 37,000 last week, a new high, following an earlier slowdown due to short supplies.
• The number of second doses administered slowed to a 7-day average close to 15,000, tracking the earlier slowdown in first doses administered. Second doses administered peaked at over 26,000 on Valentine’s day.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

• As of Friday, March 5^th New York City had administered over 2.15 million vaccine doses, and 25.9 COVID doses per 100 residents, more doses per capita than most other urban areas that publish timely data (Chart 6).

Chart 6

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller based on data as of 3/5/2021 from state, county and city health departments.

NOTE: Some areas have not divulged or updated their vaccine administration statistics and are therefore could not be included this chart. Roughly 20% to 25% of NYC doses have been administered to non-City residents.

Economy

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents jumped to 24,397 for the week of February 27^th, up from 18,491 the week prior (Chart 7). Initial claims peaked at 184,000 the week of April 11^th, but were less than 7,000 weekly immediately prior to the pandemic.

Chart 7

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Labor

Public Assistance

• While the number of cash assistance recipients in New York City has steadily fallen since September, the number of people receiving assistance in January 2021 was still 14% higher than last year (Chart 8).
• The number of residents receiving food assistance through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) rose in December and January after falling in the prior two months. As of January 2021, more than 1.66 million residents were receiving SNAP, an increase of 12% since last year.

Chart 8

SOURCE: New York City Human Resources Administration, Monthly Fact Sheets.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• From March 1^st through March 3^rd, subway and MTA bus ridership averaged 1.76 million and 1.03 million, respectively (Chart 9). In comparison, during the first week in March last year, weekday ridership averaged 5.42 million on the subway and 2.19 million on MTA buses.
• However, transit ridership has increased modestly in recent weeks. On March 3^rd, subway ridership reached roughly 1.85 million, the highest daily number recorded since October.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending March 5 include data through Wednesday, March 3.

MTA Commuter Rail

• Similar to the MTA subway and buses, ridership on the Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) and Metro-North Railroad (MNR) has increased slightly in recent weeks but remains below levels recorded in the fall (Chart 10).
• As of Wednesday, March 3^rd, ridership was down 75% on the LIRR and 80% on MNR, as compared to one year ago.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending March 5 include data through Wednesday, March 3. Howe

City Finances

• Total tax revenue through January was $229 million higher than the latest City forecast.
• Personal income tax revenue was $201 million higher than forecast, accounting for most of the unexpected strength. While higher than forecast, personal income tax revenue is still 3.8% lower than 2020, and overall revenues are 2.6% lower.
• Revenues from sales, real property transfer taxes, and hotel occupancy are still significantly lower than the previous year.
• Current year property taxes, which are based on 2019 valuations, are currently higher than in FY 2020. However, the most recent assessment data indicates a 4.3% decline in property tax revenue for the upcoming fiscal year.
• Tax revenues lost due to the pandemic have been smaller than anticipated, but the overall decline in revenue is significant, at over $1.2 billion.

Table 1: Fiscal Year to Date (2020/21) Tax Revenues, Actual vs January Plan

SOURCE: NYC OMB Monthly Tracking Report

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 2).
• Through March 3^rd, the City has committed to $3.29 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021. Of this $2.61 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $5.91 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 2: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through March 3^rd, the City has registered $4.78 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 3).
• About 59% of the contracts, or $2.81 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 3: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 3-3-2021

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $7.23 billion as of Wednesday, March 3^rd. At the same time last year, the City had $4.58 billion (Chart 11).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

Young Adults and the Pandemic

The pandemic’s economic impacts hit young New York City adults harder than anyone, with their unemployment rate peaking at over 36% over the summer and remaining elevated at 17% in January. With the economy slow, it is a good time to invest in education, but unemployed students cannot pay tuition, and CUNY’s enrollment has dropped. CUNY must be provided the resources to allow students to continue studying, so they are not left behind in the coming economic expansion.

Previous research from the Comptroller’s Office has shown that recessions can have severe and long-lasting effects on young adults, as evidenced by the enduring impacts of the Great Recession on the millennial generation. Yet, the COVID-19 pandemic has been uniquely damaging for young adults. In addition to acute disruptions to education and social connections, the pandemic disproportionately eliminated jobs in key service sectors, including leisure, hospitality and retail, that young adults rely on for employment.

As of March 2020, the unemployment rate for young adults in New York City (age 16 to 24) was about 6% (Chart S.1; we use a 3-month trailing average to smooth out volatility in the data series). In comparison, the rate for adults age 25 to 54 was closer to 4%.  When the economy shut down for non-essential businesses during the spring, unemployment rates rose for all age groups, but the growth in young adult unemployment was explosive. At its peak in July, 36% of young people were unemployed, compared to 17% of all other age groups.

S.1. NYC Unemployment Rates by Age (3-month trailing average)

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller’s Office analysis of the Current Population Survey.

While unemployment rates have since fallen for all adults, as of January 2021 about 17% of young adults in New York City remained unemployed, compared to 11% of young adults nationally and 12% of workers age 25 to 54.

Recessions have historically been associated with rising college enrollments, as tough job markets are good times to acquire skills that boost earnings once the economy improves. But fall college enrollment fell 2.6% nationally and 4% in New York. CUNY enrollment is reported to have declined by as much as 5.1%.

CUNY must be allocated sufficient resources to allow hard-hit young adults to acquire the skills they will need in the coming economic expansion. My plan for CUNY is available here.