New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

If you can feel the mood in the street is a little lighter this week, there’s a reason, and it’s not just the weather. The long term trend toward faster vaccination continues, unemployment claims are down, and declining COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths will continue to enable greater reopening.

On top of it all, the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act will provide unprecedented financial help to New York City and its residents. Just one part of the Act in the Spotlight this week – expanded tax credits for families with children and the distribution of eligible children across the five boroughs.

Until next week — stay vigilant, and mask up!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• The Federal government made approximately 8.36 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available for distribution to states for the week of March 15^th, up from 7.66 million last week (Chart 1).
• Pfizer’s vaccine distribution has increased steadily from 2 million weekly in January to 4.5 million this week. Moderna’s vaccine distribution increased more slowly from 2 million weekly in January to 3.4 million doses per week for the last six weeks. After making 2.4 million doses available the week of March 1^st, availability of Johnson and Johnson vaccine doses slowed dramatically.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 712,000 for the week of March 6^th, down from a revised 754,000 last week, and a recent high of 927,000 the week of January 9^th (Chart 2). Weekly claims peaked at almost 7 million in March of last year.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 18,690,282 unemployed Americans as of the week ending February 20^th, up over two million from 16,626,185 the week prior (Chart 3). Claims continued to rise and fall dramatically on a two week cycle.
• Unadjusted continuing regular unemployment insurance claims fell to 4,584,706 for the week of February 27^th, down from a revised 4,848,348 the prior week.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) jumped to 5,454,740 for the week of February 20^th. PEUC claims have been jumping and falling by over half a million claims on alternating weeks since the beginning of 2021, suggesting the changes may be driven by processing issues.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) jumped to 8,387,194 from 7,329,172 the week prior.

 Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES act, and extended by last week’s American Rescue Plan Act.

New York City

Vaccines

• First COVID vaccine doses administered declined to a seven-day average of 33,000 after a dramatic spike to almost 50,000 daily in the first week of March (Chart 4).
• Second doses administered continue to trend downward after peaking in mid-February, but should accelerate in the coming weeks, mirroring the earlier spike in first doses.
• Administration of J&J’s single-dose vaccine is off to a slower start.

Chart 4

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

• As of Friday, March 12^th New York City had administered over 2.63 million vaccine doses, and 31.6 COVID doses per 100 residents, more doses per capita than most other urban areas that publish timely data (Chart 5).

Chart 5

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller based on data as of 3/12/2021 from state, county and city health departments.

NOTE: Some areas have not divulged or updated their vaccine administration statistics and therefore could not be included this chart. Roughly 20% to 25% of NYC doses have been administered to non-City residents.

The Economy

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents fell to 18,075 for the week of March 6^th, from 24,397 the week prior, and the fewest initial claims since the week of December 19^th (Chart 6). Initial claims peaked at 184,000 the week of April 11^th, but were less than 7,000 weekly before the pandemic.

Chart 6

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Labor

Public Assistance

• The number of New York City residents enrolled in Medicaid reached 3.88 million in February 2021, close to half a million more than one year ago. Enrollment has grown in every month since March 2020.
• Medicaid enrollment has expanded across all five boroughs. As of February 2021, an estimated 64% of Bronx residents were enrolled in Medicaid, up from 56% a year ago (Chart 7). The share in Brooklyn has climbed from 44% to 50%, while the share in Queens jumped from 40% to 47%.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller based on New York State Department of Health, Medicaid Enrollment Databook, and U.S. Census Population Estimates for 2019.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Over the last two weeks, weekday subway ridership has averaged close to 1.8 million, similar to ridership levels reached in the fall (Chart 8). Weekday ridership on MTA buses has also topped 1 million for the last few weeks.
• However, transit ridership remains far below pre-pandemic levels. As of Wednesday, March 10^th, ridership was down 68% on the subway and 57% on buses, compared to last year.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending March 12 include data through Wednesday, March 10.

Port Authority Bridge and Tunnel Traffic

• In calendar year 2020, vehicle traffic on Port Authority bridges and tunnels fell 20%, from 122 million vehicle crossings to 98 million (Chart 9).
• Automobiles, which make up more than 90% of crossings, also fell by 20%. The decline in commuters and tourism led to a 39% decline in bus traffic, while truck traffic was down only 5%.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, Traffic & Volume.

NOTE: Includes eastbound traffic.

City Finances

• February New York City withholding payments, which are closely tied to monthly wages, were 4.7% higher than a year ago. The two-month average, which better reflects volatility in monthly payroll patterns, was 5.2% lower than the previous year.
• Fiscal year-to-date (since July) New York City withholding revenue is lower by a similar 5.1%.
• Overall statewide withholding payments have fared better, up slightly fiscal year to date, and higher in the most recent months compared to the previous year.

Chart 10

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Taxation and Finance

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 1).
• Through March 10^th, the City has committed to $3.33 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021, as shown in Table 2. Of this $2.65 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $5.95 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 1: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through March 10^th, City has registered $4.85 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 2).
• About 58% of the contracts, or $2.81 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 2: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 3-10-2021

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $7.30 billion as of Wednesday, March 10^th. At the same time last year, the City had $4.13 billion (Chart 12).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

Distribution of Enhanced Temporary Child Tax Credit Benefits in New York City

Last week, President Biden signed the American Rescue Plan, a broad reaching $1.9 trillion stimulus package to mitigate the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Americans. Relief for New Yorkers will be extensive with emergency support provided for schools, public transportation, cultural institutions, restaurants and small businesses, vaccines and testing and much more.

One particular provision of the American Rescue Plan that will bring temporary tax relief to families with children is a one-year expansion of the Federal Child Tax Credit (CTC). Based on estimates from the 2019 American Community Survey, the Comptroller’s Office projects that approximately 76% of children under age 18 live in households that stand to reap additional temporary enhanced benefits through the expansion of the CTC in the American Rescue Plan.

Neighborhoods with the greatest number of children living in households eligible for enhanced CTC benefits include Borough Park and East New York in Brooklyn, Belmont, Fordham and Highbridge in the Bronx and Jamaica in Queens. Additionally, there are seventeen neighborhoods in New York City where greater than 85% of children under age 18 live in households that will be eligible for enhanced CTC benefits.

The map below breaks down neighborhood level estimates of children in households that will be eligible for enhanced temporary tax benefits through the American Rescue Plan.

Chart S.1

Percentage of Children in Households Eligible for Enhanced Temporary Child Tax Credit Benefits

SOURCE: American Community Survey.  American Community Survey household income is an imperfect measure of income as measured by the I.R.S., as non-dependent members of a household file separate tax returns.

The CTC is a widely claimed tax benefit for most families with children with some 90% of Americans with children estimated to have claimed the benefit in 2020.^[1] The American Rescue Plan will temporarily expand eligibility for the CTC and the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that it will enhance tax benefit amounts nationwide by some $109 billion.^[2]  According to Senator Charles Schumer, families across New York State will receive an estimated $7.03 billion in child tax credit payments thanks to amendments to the program.

The American Rescue Plan enables a number of key changes to the CTC to temporarily enhance tax benefits for households with children. Key temporary reforms include making the CTC fully refundable for lower income families, raising benefit amounts from $2,000 to $3,000 for children age 6 to 17 year and from $2,000 to $3,600 for children under age 6, and by expanding eligibility to include children age 17.

^[1] https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/what-child-tax-credit

^[2] https://www.jct.gov/publications/2021/jcx-13-21/