New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

The U.S. added 900,000 jobs in March, and jobs in New York City rose again for the 2^nd month in a row in February –  more signs that a hard winter is behind us. Ahead are accelerated vaccinations, faster economic growth, and potentially a $2 trillion infrastructure bill that would greatly benefit New York City.

In the Spotlight this week: After far too long, marijuana is now legal for adult use in New York City and New York State. It will turn the page on decades of discriminatory law enforcement targeting Black and Latino New Yorkers, and raise tax revenue to be invested back into impacted communities.

Until next week — mask up, and when your turn comes, get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• The Federal government made over 13 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available for distribution to states for the week of April 5^th (Chart 1).
• The increase was driven by a 3 million dose expansion in the availability of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine. As a result the total number that can be fully vaccinated in the U.S. has more than doubled to 9 million weekly, up from 6.5 million last week, and 4.3 million two weeks ago.
• Pfizer doses available for distribution fell by 1.1 million to 4.6 million, and Moderna doses held steady at 3.4 million.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 6.0% in March, from 6.2% in February. Unemployment remains well above the pre-pandemic low of 3.5% in February, 2020, but has fallen dramatically from the 14.8% pandemic high of April 2020.
• Nonfarm employment rose to 144.1 million in March 2021, an increase of over 900,000 from February 2021. Nonfarm employment remains 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic high of February 2020, but has risen by almost 14 million from the pandemic low of 130 million in April, 2020.
• March data for New York City and State will be available April 15^th.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics via FRED

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 719,000 for the week of March 27th, from a revised 658,000 last week, but continue to trend downward (Chart 3). Weekly claims peaked at almost 7 million in March of last year.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 17,098,654 unemployed Americans as of the week ending March 13^th, down from a revised 18,561,244 the week prior (Chart 4).
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 5,515,355 for the week of March 13^th, down from a revised 6,220,492 the week prior. PEUC claims have been volatile from week to week since January, suggesting the weekly changes reflect primarily processing and reporting issues.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell slightly to 7,349,663, down from 7,844,867 the week prior.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

New York City

COVID

• First vaccine doses administered in New York City continue to trend downward from a high of 50,000 in early March, but the seven-day average of second doses administered crested at a new high of 35,000 last week.
• Single-dose J&J vaccines administered continue to decline from early March highs, but should expand dramatically in the coming weeks, enabled by rising federal deliveries despite problems at a subcontractor’s manufacturing plant in Baltimore.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

• As of Friday, April 2^nd New York City had administered over 4.2 million vaccine doses, and 50.7 COVID doses per 100 residents, more doses per capita than most other urban areas that publish timely data (Chart 6).

Chart 6

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller based on data as of 4/2/2021 from state, county and city health departments.

NOTE: Some areas have not divulged or updated their vaccine administration statistics and therefore could not be included this chart. Roughly 20% to 25% of NYC doses have been administered to non-City residents.

• The b.1.1.7/U.K. COVID accounted for over 25% of new COVID cases in New York City between March 15^th and March 21^st, up from less than 10% of new cases in early February. The b.1.1.7/U.K. variant is tracked as a variant of concern by the CDC due to evidence of greater disease severity, reduced vaccine effectiveness, and greater transmissibility.
• New York City’s home grown b.1.526 variant accounts for over 40% of New York City COVID cases, but is tracked by the CDC only as a “Variant of Interest” – suggesting limited evidence of increased transmission.

Chart 7

SOURCE: GISAID via NYC DOHMH, weekly estimates are based on small sample sizes that may not be representative

The Economy

• Seasonally adjusted private employment in New York City rose 21,000 in February, led by an increase in 10,000 jobs in accommodation and food service, as travel picked up and indoor dining expanded (Table 1).
• Private employment remains 642,000 (16%) below the peak of February 2020, but has risen 259,000 (8%) from the lows of April 2020.

Table 1: February New York City Private Employment (Seasonally Adjusted)

SOURCE: NY DOL, Seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB.

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents rose to 20,163 for the week of March 27^th, up from 18,319 the week prior (Chart 8). Initial claims peaked at 184,000 the week of April 11^th, 2020, but were less than 7,000 weekly before the pandemic.

Chart 8

SOURCE: NY DOL

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Average weekday MTA subway ridership continues to show signs of modest growth (Chart 9). On each of the last three Fridays in March, daily ridership surpassed 1.9 million, which had not occurred since March 2020.
• On Wednesday, March 31, 2021, subway ridership was 69% below the equivalent, pre-pandemic day according to the MTA, and bus ridership was down 61%.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending April 2 include data through Wednesday, March 31.

Air Travel

• Since the early stages of the pandemic, air travel has slowly, but steadily, increased at airports in the New York City region and throughout the country (Chart 10).
• The recovery in air travel in the city has consistently lagged the rest of the country. As of February 2021, passenger volume was down 72% in the New York City region and 57% across the U.S., compared to pre-pandemic levels in February 2019.

Chart 10

NOTE: New York City airports include John F. Kennedy International, Newark Liberty International, LaGuardia and Stewart International.

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of data released by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration.

City Finances

• In the first quarter of 2021, NYC withholding payments, which are closely tied to monthly wages, were 3.6% percent lower than 2020 (Table 2).
• For the fiscal year that began in July, withholding is 4.5% lower than FY 2020.

Table 2: Personal Income Tax Withholding, FY 2021 vs. FY 2020

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS

• Because the City does not have a commuter tax, a resumption in withholding growth will depend on the growth in resident employment, or growth in the wages of city residents. Despite recent employment growth there is limited evidence of employment growth for New York City residents (Chart 11).

Chart 11

SOURCE: Current Population Survey

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 3).
• Through March 31^st, the City has committed to $3.53 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021. Of this $2.88 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $6.15 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 3: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through March 31^st, New York City has registered $5.23 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 4).
• About 54% of the contracts, $2.81 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $509 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $379 million for medical, surgical and lab supplies excluding PPE and ventilators, $296 million for vaccination-related activities, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 4: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 3-31-2021

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $12.1 billion as of Wednesday, March 31^th. At the same time last year, the City had $8.0 billion (Chart 12).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

Adult-Use Cannabis Legalized in New York City and State

On March 31^st, New York State became the 16^th state to legalize adult-use cannabis. Legalization will turn the page on systemic, discriminatory enforcement in communities of color and open up a new billion-dollar industry in New York City. Based on a 2018 analysis, the Comptroller’s Office estimates that the legal marijuana market in the city will eventually top $1.1 billion per year.

The NYPD issued guidance to its officers last week noting that smoking marijuana anywhere cigarette smoking is allowed is now lawful, and that the smell of marijuana no longer offers probable cause for a vehicle search.  In 2020, the NYPD issued 10,374 criminal court summonses for unlawful possession of marijuana. The data are clear: communities of color, and especially Black New Yorkers, have borne the brunt of marijuana enforcement despite the decriminalization of marijuana possession in small amounts in 2019. 39% of criminal court summonses were issued in the Bronx, and 60% were issued to Black New Yorkers, although they make up 22% of the city population and report lower cannabis use than white New Yorkers (Chart S.1). 96% of summonses were issued to people of color. A 2019 study from the City’s Department of Health and Mental Hygiene found that 24% of white residents reported using cannabis, comparted to 14% of Black residents and 12% of Latino residents.

Chart S.1

NOTE: Excludes 120 summonses given to a person whose race was unknown.

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of New York City Police Department, Marijuana Arrests and Summonses, and 2019 Census data.

Under the new law, criminal records for past New York marijuana use will be expunged.

Legalization of adult-use marijuana will also provide a much-needed boost to the economy. Despite the pandemic, retail sales totaled $1.3 billion in Washington State and $1.5 billion in Colorado during FY 2020. Both states passed legalization in 2012 and are less populous than New York City.

Under the new law, products will be taxed at the wholesale level based on their THC content and subject to a 9% state excise tax and a 4% local excise tax on retail sales. Net of administrative costs, 40% of state revenues will be dedicated to a Community Grants Reinvestment Fund, 40% to education through the State Lottery Fund, and 20% to a Drug Treatment and Public Education Fund. The Comptroller’s Office forecasts that the City will receive about $45 million per year from the local excise tax.