New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

The payoff from a year of mask wearing and long waits in vaccination lines is increasingly clear in the economic data. The New York City unemployment rate is down, subway ridership is up, and employment is growing across industries.

One of the City’s hardest hit, and now fastest growing, industries in the Spotlight this week: bars and restaurants. The latest data suggest New York City’s good news is only getting started.

Until next week — mask up, and when your turn comes, get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• The Federal government made approximately 8.8 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines available for distribution to states for the week of April 19^th, down from approximately 8.9 million doses last week, but still more than twice as many as the weekly doses distributed in January (Chart 1).
• No singe-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccines will be distributed to states this week to allow time for authorities to investigate rare blood clot events.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• BLS figures released Friday, April 16^th show significant March employment gains in 29 states, and no states with significant employment losses.
• New York State added over 63,000 jobs, more than all states except California and Texas. In percentage terms, only 11 states had employment grow faster than the 0.7% growth rate in New York.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 576,000 for the week of April 10^th, from a revised 769,000 last week (Chart 3). It is the fewest initial claims since the onset of the pandemic.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 16,238,529 unemployed Americans as of the week ending March 27^th, down from 17,291,560 the week prior (Chart 4).
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 5,160,267 for the week of March 27^th, down from 5,634,967 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 7,053,575 from 7,554,290 the week prior.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

New York City

COVID

• The 7-day average number of vaccine doses administered in New York City fell to 34,000 for first doses, 27,000 for second doses, and 6,000 for single-dose, as administration of Johnson and Johnson’s single-dose vaccine fell close to zero on Wednesday, April 14^th (Chart 5).

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

• The share of COVID cases caused by the b.1.1.7/U.K. COVID variant increased to 36% for the week of March 29^th to April 4^th, up from 30% the week prior, and 7% in early February (Chart 6). Despite this growth, this more contagious variant does not appear to be causing an explosion in new cases, as may be the case in other states and countries.

Chart 6

SOURCE: GISAID via NYC DOHMH, weekly estimates are based on small sample sizes that may not be representative

NOTE: “Variants of Concern” are associated with greater disease severity, reduced vaccine effectiveness, and greater transmissibility. There is limited evidence linking “Variants of Interest” to increased transmissibility.

The Economy

Note: The data series on New York City unemployment claims has been discontinued by the New York Department of Labor as of March 27, 2021.

• Seasonally adjusted New York City private employment grew to over 3.5 million in March, an increase of 42,000 (1.2%) from February, with 16,000 jobs added in accommodation and food services (Table 1). The City of New York added more jobs in March than any state except California and Texas (see Chart 2).
• Private employment remains 578,000 below pre-pandemic highs of February 2020, but has grown by 324,000 since the shutdown of April 2020.

Table 1: New York City Employment, by Industry (Seasonally Adjusted)

SOURCE: NY DOL, Seasonally Adjusted by NYC OMB, industry totals may diverge from subtotals due to rounding

• New York City’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 11.7% in March, down from a recent high of 12.9% in February (Chart 7). The City’s unemployment rate peaked at 20.0% in May, up from pre-pandemic lows of only 3.8% in March of 2020.
• Over 16% of Black and over 13% of Hispanic New York City adults remain unemployed, much higher percentages than of the City overall.

Chart 7

SOURCE: NYC rate smoothed and seasonally adjusted from NY DOL, Racial and Ethnic breakdowns from the Current Population Survey, 3-month averages, not seasonally adjusted.

• The vacancy rate for Manhattan office buildings has risen to 16.3% in the first quarter of 2021, up from 11.3% in the first quarter of 2020 (Chart 8). This five percentage point increase is smaller than the nine point increase in the early 2000s, and the seven point increase in the Great Recession, but vacancy rates have historically continued to rise well after the worst of the recession.
• Average asking rents for Manhattan office space show little decline to date, but asking rents do not reflect other concessions (like months of free rent, free services, and paid conversion costs), and changes in asking rents tend to lag inventory changes by years.
• The rapidly rising vacancy rate, already at a multi-decade high, suggests office rents are due for a large and prolonged decline.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Cushman Wakefield

• The inventory of apartments available for rent swelled from 20,000 before the pandemic to a decade high of over 75,000 in August 2020 (Chart 9). Inventories have since fallen to about 55,000 in February 2021, although some of the decline may be due to landlords pulling apartments from the market in anticipation of a stronger demand in the future.
• Median asking rents on available apartments fell dramatically from $2,900 before the pandemic to about $2,500 in October of 2020, and have shown little change since then.
• The combination of falling inventories and little change to asking rents since October suggests a stabilizing market.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Streeteasy.com

Public Assistance

• The number of public assistance beneficiaries remains elevated from pre-pandemic levels. In February 2021, close to 1.7 million New York City residents received food assistance through the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and 371,975 received cash assistance benefits (Chart 10).
• Compared to one year ago, the number of SNAP recipients in February was up by 12.3% and the number of cash assistance recipients was up by 13.7%.

Chart 10

SOURCE: New York City Human Resources Administration, HRA Monthly Fact Sheets.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• The subway system reached a new milestone as daily ridership surpassed 2 million on Thursday, April 8, 2021, the first time since March 2020. For the week ending April 9, 2021, weekday subway ridership averaged 1.96 million and MTA bus ridership averaged 1.15 million, the highest levels since the beginning of the pandemic (Chart 11).
• Despite recent gains, ridership was still down 66% on the subway and 52% on MTA buses, as of Wednesday, April 14, 2021, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending April 16 include data through Wednesday, April 14^th.

Bike Ridership

• After a slump during an unusually snowy February, bicycle ridership over the East River bridges was up 38% in March 2021, as compared to the same month in 2019 (Chart 12).
• The Queensboro Bridge saw the highest increase in ridership, as 123,058 riders crossed in March 2021, up 67% from 2019. Ridership rose 31% on the Williamsburg Bridge, 30% on the Manhattan Bridge, and 14% on the Brooklyn Bridge.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of New York City Department of Transportation, Bicycle Counts.

NOTE: Includes the Ed Koch Queensboro Bridge, the Manhattan Bridge, the Brooklyn Bridge and the Williamsburg Bridge.

City Finances

• Taxable sales at New York City gas stations fell to $1.545 billion during the pandemic year from March 2020 to February 2021, down from $2.340 billion the year prior, and a decline of almost 50% from the $3.093 billion in 2013/14 (Table 2).
• In addition to the impact of the pandemic, sales at New York City gas stations are down due to declining gas prices, and increased sales of plug-in electric vehicles, which had U.S. sales grow from just 18,000 in 2011, to over 350,000 in 2018. This has prompted discussion of alternative ways to tax driving, such as a tax on miles driven.

Table 2: Taxable Sales at New York City Gas Stations, $Billions

SOURCE: NYS Dept of Tax and Finance, Sales years run from March to February of the following year. 2021 is a preliminary estimate.

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 3).
• Through April 14^th, the City has committed to $3.75 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021, exceeding the budget amount. Of this $3.20 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $6.37 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 3: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through April 14^th, City has registered $5.74 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 4).
• About 62% of the contracts, $3.58 billion, are for vaccination, hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $509 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $379 million for medical, surgical and lab supplies excluding PPE and ventilators, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 4: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 4-14-2021

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $12.21 billion as of Wednesday, April 14^th. At the same time last year, the City had $8.81 billion (Chart 13). Cash available is higher this year due to a slower pace of spending.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 13

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

State Developments

• New York State closed its fiscal year 2021 (April 2020 through March 2021) with total tax collections of $82.4 billion, 0.6% below the prior year (Table 5). A 2.4% increase in the State’s personal income tax (PIT) offset a 10.6% drop in consumption and use taxes and a 2.3% decline in business taxes.
• Following a large year-over-year drop in PIT refund payments during the month of February, refunds rose from $1.2 billion last March to $2.2 billion this year. At the same time, withheld PIT revenue rose 11.7% from $4.5 billion to $5.1 billion, resulting in an overall decrease of 11.1% in the PIT.
• Total tax collections for FY 2021 were $6.8 billion higher than original projections last May.
• Federal receipts were $13.1 billion higher than the prior year, while total state spending on local assistance increased by $4.6 billion, or 3.6%.

Table 5: New York State All Funds Tax Revenue ($Millions)

SOURCE: Office of the New York City Comptroller analysis of Office of the New York State Comptroller, Monthly Cash Basis Report.

Spotlight of the Week

Dining in the Age of COVID

As New York City COVID cases continue to fall, ever greater numbers of residents are vaccinated, and the City continues its measured reopening, it is a good time to assess the impact of reopening on one of the City’s hardest hit sectors: bars and restaurants. The latest data show New York City spending at bars, restaurants, and hotels has recovered substantially from the depths of winter. Reservations for sit-down dining are on the path to recovery as well, especially in comparison to European and Canadian cities, where the pace of vaccination has been slower.

Data from Affinity Solutions shows New York City spending on food service and accommodation, a category which includes bars, restaurants, and hotels, remains down 17% as of March 29^th (on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to January 2020). New York City spending was down by 40% as recently as early February.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: Affinity Solutions via Tracktherevery.org

Spending has more than fully recovered in Dallas and Houston, from both COVID and blackouts, and is generally higher in Southern states with milder winters and state governments that have prioritized reopening, but New York City no longer lags far behind, as it did in the winter months.

Data from OpenTable shows a similar pattern. As of April 14^th, New York City reservations for sit-down dining were down about 74% from 2019, but have risen substantially from January when the City was closed to indoor dining (Chart S.2). The news is even better in Brooklyn, where reservations  are down only 52%.

Bookings for sit-down dining are down much more than spending, due to the pandemic surge in take-away and delivery meals. Dallas and Houston table reservations have almost fully recovered, but premature reopening of this segment of the economy brings risk, as exemplified by Europe.

Chart S.2

SOURCE: OpenTable.com

Dublin, Hamburg, Munich, and London table reservations had almost fully recovered by the end of summer, but these gains were quickly reversed with the onset of winter and the rise of the more contagious b.1.1.7/U.K. COVID variant. Dublin table reservations had returned, and even exceeded, 2019 levels as recently as Christmas, but had ceased entirely by early January, and have not recovered.

As of April 14^th, table reservations in Dublin, Hamburg, Munich, and Toronto are at or close to zero, reflecting the slow pace of vaccination in continental Europe and in Canada, and continuing struggles with the U.K. COVID variant. But even in London, where the pace of vaccination is among the fastest in the world, reservations remain down over 80%.

These data illustrate the risks of a premature re-opening. Ultimately, New York City’s bars and restaurants will be able to reopen without restrictions once broad population immunity has been achieved through vaccination. Until that time, a gradual re-opening will allow for a measured return to eating and drinking out, while minimizing the risk of a COVID resurgence and renewed shutdowns, like those seen in Europe.