New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

Plenty of work remains to be done to bring our City back even better than before. But as we head into May, the signs are promising. Vaccinations are rising, with half of adult New Yorkers now vaccinated, and COVID cases are falling. The economic data continue to point toward a steadily accelerating recovery: New York City job ads are above pre-pandemic levels for the first time, workers have begun returning to the office, and subway ridership continues to rise.

Until next week — mask up, and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• As of April 23^rd 41.3% of U.S. residents, 52.6% of adults, and 81% of seniors have received at least one vaccine dose.
• The Federal Government made approximately 8.8 million vaccine doses available for distribution to states for the week of April 26^th, a slight increase from last week, but twice the weekly availability of January (Chart 1).
• The Federal Government lifted its pause on use of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine on Friday April 23^rd, concluding that the benefits of the vaccine outweigh the very small risk of side-effects.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  This chart does not reflect possible distribution of J&J vaccines the week of 4/26.

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 547,000 for the week of April 17^th, from a revised 586,000 last week (Chart 2). It is a decline of almost 40% from early January and the fewest initial claims since March 14^th, 2020.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 16,829,203 unemployed Americans as of the week ending April 3^rd, up from 16,217,884 the week prior (Chart 3). Claims continue to rise and fall on alternate weeks, but are trending down overall.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) rose to 5,605,935 for the week of April 3^rd, up from 5,158,231 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) rose to 7,309,604 from 7,044,376 the week prior.

 Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

New York City

COVID

• According to New York City’s DOHMH, 50% of adults, and 40% of all New York City residents have received at least one vaccine dose as of April 14^th, but only 27% of Black and 32% of Hispanic residents have received at least one dose.
• The 7-day average number of first vaccine doses administered in New York City declined to 25,000 on April 22^nd, down from an April 11^th peak of 47,000 and an earlier March 4^th peak of 50,000 (Chart 4).
• Second doses administered declined to a 7-day average of 27,000, but should surge again in the coming weeks following the earlier peak in first doses.
• Single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses administered remain close to zero, as use of the vaccine was paused for safety review, but will rise in the coming weeks after the pause was lifted last Friday (April 23^rd).

Chart 4

SOURCE: NYC DOHM

• With continuing progress on vaccination, New York City COVID cases (not shown) have fallen from 5,000 daily in early January to 1,800 daily in mid-April.
• Hospitalizations have fallen from 397 daily in mid-January to a seven-day average of 135, and deaths have fallen from a seven-day average of 84 daily in mid-February to 26 (Chart 5).
• The positive test rate has fallen from seven-day average of 10.2% in early January to 5.0% on April 19^th.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC DOHM

• The b.1.1.7/U.K. COVID variant is estimated to account for roughly 36% of New York City COVID cases for the week of April 5^th to April 12^th, roughly the same as the previous week (Chart 6). This more contagious variant does not appear to be causing an explosion in new COVID cases.
• 2.6% of cases between April 5^th and April 12^th were caused by the p.1/Brazilian variant, double the 1.3% of the previous week, a cause for concern but not yet alarm.

Chart 6

SOURCE: GISAID via NYC DOHMH, weekly estimates are based on small sample sizes that may not be representative

NOTE: “Variants of Concern” are associated with greater disease severity, reduced vaccine effectiveness, and greater transmissibility. There is limited evidence linking “Variants of Interest” to increased transmissibility.

The Economy

• Job ads for the New York metropolitan area posted to Indeed.com exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time in late March, and are running 5% above pre-pandemic levels as of April 16^th, suggesting New York City employment growth is set to accelerate (Chart 7). Job ads were down as much as 40% in May and June of last year.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Indeed.com via FRED

• The share of employed New York City residents working from home due to COVID declined to 39.0% in March, after increasing for four consecutive months to 43.5% in February. This percentage should continue falling as more are vaccinated, temperatures rise and COVID cases continue to decline.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, COVID Supplement

• New York City granted permits for construction of 1,631 new housing units in February 2021, a decline from 2,440 January, but an increase of 36% from February 2020 (Chart 9). Housing permits are volatile from month to month, but trending up from a low of just 532 in April 2020.

Chart 9

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Average weekday ridership on the subway has continued to slowly climb upward, reaching an average of 1.99 million from Monday, April 19, 2021 through Wednesday, April 21, 2021 (Chart 10).
• As of Wednesday, April 21, 2021, ridership was down 64% on the subway and 44% on MTA buses, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending April 23, 2021 include data through Wednesday, April 21.

Public Assistance

• During March 2021, more than 3.9 million New York City residents were enrolled in Medicaid, an increase of close to 32,000 since February and more than 523,000 since March 2020 (Chart 11).

Chart 11

SOURCE: New York State Department of Health, NYS Medicaid Enrollment Databook.

City Finances

• New York City sales tax revenue shows little sign of significant recovery through March, with 2021 first quarter revenues down almost 24% from the first quarter of 2020. Fiscal year-to-date sales tax revenue is down 22%.
• Some of the year to date decline is the result of the State diverting $250 million of NYC sales tax revenue to distressed hospitals. Taking that into account, sales tax revenue is still 17.8% lower than the previous fiscal year.

Table 1: NYC Sales Tax Revenue, $Billions

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS, Data is preliminary

COVID-19 Spending

• The City’s January 2021 Financial Plan includes $3.58 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 2).
• Through April 21^st, the City has committed to $3.99 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2021, exceeding the budget amount by about $400 million. Of this $3.32 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $6.61 billion in COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 2: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through April 21^st, City has registered $5.75 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 3).
• About 62% of the contracts, $3.58 billion, are for vaccination, hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $509 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $379 million for medical, surgical and lab supplies excluding PPE and ventilators, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 3: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 4-21-2021

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $11.25 billion as of Wednesday, April 21^st. At the same time last year, the City had $8.74 billion (Chart 12). Cash available is higher this year due to a slower pace of spending.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.