New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

As COVID cases continue to fall, and more and more New Yorkers have been getting vaccinated, the City’s gradual opening is set to accelerate toward a full and complete reopening early in the summer.

And with the pandemic receding, attention will need to shift to the difficult problems it leaves in its wake. Federal aid will help. In the Spotlight this week – the many ways New York City plans on spending Federal stimulus dollars.

Until next week — mask up, and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• Estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis show U.S. GDP increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2% in the first quarter of 2021. The increase was driven primarily by pandemic relief programs, in particular direct economic impact payments made to households.
• Figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on April 28^th show the March unemployment rate in the New York metropolitan area was 8.8%, higher than in all other major metropolitan areas except Los Angeles (Chart 1). Unemployment rates remain elevated in many urban areas compared to the U.S. average of 6.2% (not seasonally adjusted).

Chart 1

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, the New York-New Jersey MSA includes New York City, its suburbs, Long Island, and part of Northern New Jersey.

• The Federal government made more than 9.6 million vaccine doses available for distribution to states for the week of May 3^rd, an increase of approximately 800,000 doses from last week.
• Distribution of Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses will resume in limited quantities this week with 765,500 doses being made available to states, following the Federal government’s lifting of the pause for safety review.

Chart 2

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 553,000 for the week of April 24^th, down from a revised 566,000 last week (Chart 3). Initial claims have declined for four weeks straight, and from a recent peak of over 900,000 in early January.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 16,007,208 unemployed Americans as of the week ending April 10^th, down from 16,829,258 the week prior (Chart 4). Claims continue to rise and fall on alternate weeks, but are trending down overall.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 5,192,711 for the week of April 10^th, down from 5,605,935 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 6,974,068 from 7,309,604 the week prior, and the fewest continuing claims since May 2^nd, 2020.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

New York City

COVID

• The 7-day average number of first vaccine doses administered in New York City declined to 20,449 on April 29^th, from a recent peak of 47,479 on April 11^th (Chart 5). This steady decline for well over two weeks, despite ample supplies and appointment availability, suggests many unvaccinated New Yorkers remain reluctant.
• Second doses administered declined to a 7-day average of 31,166, after cresting at 34,205 on April 25^th.
• Administration of single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine doses resumed slowly following an earlier pause for safety review; the 7-day average number of doses administered rose to 820 on April 29^th.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC DOHM

• The pace of vaccination is slowing despite low vaccination rates among some groups. Only 29% of Black, and 35% of Hispanic adults in New York City have received at least one vaccine dose, compared to 53% of New York City adults overall (Table 1). Going forward it will become increasingly important to convince these populations of the importance of vaccination, and make getting vaccinated convenient.
• Only 51% of seniors age 85 and over have received at least one vaccine dose, compared to 71% of those age 65 to 74. The oldest seniors are less mobile and more likely to struggle with internet based appointments.

Table 1: Share of NYC Adults Having Received at Least 1 Vaccine Dose

SOURCE: NYC DOHM, as of April 14^th, 2021

• The share of new COVID cases caused by the b.1.1.7/U.K. variant increased slightly to 37.9% for the week of April 12^th to 18^th, an increase of 1.6% from 36.3% the week prior (Chart 6). The share caused by the p.1/Brazilian variant increased to 3.4%, from 2.6% the week prior. Neither increase suggests a renewed outbreak is imminent.

Chart 6

SOURCE: GISAID via NYC DOHMH, weekly estimates are based on small sample sizes that may not be representative

NOTE: “Variants of Concern” are associated with greater disease severity, reduced vaccine effectiveness, and greater transmissibility. There is limited evidence linking “Variants of Interest” to increased transmissibility.

The Economy

• Recently updated data from Streeteasy.com show the number of apartments available for rent rose to 58,001 in March, up from 56,133 in February, after falling from a peak of over 75,000 in August and September (Chart 7).
• After holding steady for four months, median New York City asking rents fell to $2,475 in March, a decline of $25, or 1%, from February.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Streeteasy.com

• Improving weather, widespread vaccination, and falling COVID case numbers have New Yorkers returning to parks, transit and workplaces in ever greater numbers. As of April 26^th, time spent at workplaces was down only 36% from pre-pandemic levels, after being down as much as 48% in early February, and 67% in the heights of the pandemic last April.
• Similarly, time spent on transit rose to being down only 39% from pre-pandemic levels, after being down 51% in late February.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, via Tracktherecovery.org

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Subway ridership reached a new pandemic-era high as weekday ridership averaged 2.03 million during the week ending April 23, 2021 and 2.05 million in the beginning of last week (Chart 9).
• As of Wednesday, April 28, 2021, ridership was down 63% on the subway and 51% on MTA buses, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending April 30, 2021 include data through Wednesday, April 28.

Air Travel

• Air travel continued to recover in the New York City region through March 2021 while also continuing to trail the national average (Chart 10). During March, airport passenger volume was down 64% in the New York City region, compared to March 2019, while air travel was down 48% across the country.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of data released by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration.

NOTE: New York City airports include John F. Kennedy International, Newark Liberty International, LaGuardia and Stewart International.

City Life

• There have been significant changes to the population and composition of the City’s shelter system over the course of the current mayoral administration. The total number of individuals in families with children has dropped by 10,343 people, or more than 27%, from April 24^th, 2014 to April 24^th, 2020. However, during that same period, a steadily rising single adult shelter census offset those improvements; the population rose by more than 7,500 individuals, a 71% increase (Chart 11).

Chart 11

SOURCE: NYC Open Data.

NOTE: Detailed shelter census data is not available prior to 8/21/2013.

City Finances

• The City’s hotel sector and related occupancy tax revenues face a long road to recovery. New York City occupancy tax revenues in the first quarter of 2021 were only 14% of the same quarter in 2019.
• In its recovery the city trails other major tourism markets, such as Los Angeles and Miami. Notably Los Angeles has adopted similar or even stricter lockdown measures; museums were not allowed to reopen in Los Angeles until very recently and many still remain closed.

Table 2: First Quarter Hotel Occupancy Tax Revenue in NYC, L.A., and Miami

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS, Miami Dade County and Los Angeles County Open Data-Dade County.

COVID-19 Spending

• On April 26^th, the City released its FY 2022 Executive Budget and modified budget for the current fiscal year. The modified budget increased the current fiscal year COVID related spending by $3.36 billion to $6.94 billion (Table 3).
• Through April 28^th, the City has committed to $4.07 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021. Of this $3.38 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $6.69 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 3: FY 2021 COVID-19 Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through April 28^th, City has registered $5.75 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 4).
• About 62% of the contracts, $3.58 billion, are for vaccination, hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $509 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $379 million for medical, surgical and lab supplies excluding PPE and ventilators, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 4: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 4-28-2021

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.

NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $10.71 billion as of Wednesday, April 28^th. At the same time last year, the City had $8.51 billion (Chart 12). Cash available is higher this year due to a slower pace of spending.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

Spotlight of the Week

How New York City Plans to Spend its Stimulus Dollars

Last week, Mayor de Blasio presented a $98.6 billion Executive Budget for fiscal year 2022. Included in the financial plan are new details on how the City intends to spend nearly $16 billion in additional federal stimulus funding. Proposed uses include a mix of temporary programs to address pandemic-related needs, funding swaps, restoration of previously proposed cuts, as well as funding new or expanded recurring programs.

As proposed, the additional federal resources would fund $4.4 billion in the current year FY 2021, $6.5 billion in FY 2022, $2.2 billion in FY 2023, $1.7 billion in FY 2024, and nearly $1 billion in FY 2025 (Table S.1).

Table S.1: Changes in Projected Federal COVID Grants Since January 2021 ($ Millions)

SOURCE: Office of the New York City Comptroller analysis of the New York City Financial Management System.

The largest new source of federal funding is $5.9 billion in local relief from the March 2021 American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). Of the total, 84% would be used in FY 2021 and FY 2022, including $1.3 billion that would fund actions only in FY 2021.  For example, the City plans to use $504 million to fund COVID medical leave and care and $304 million for the Test & Trace Corps in FY 2021. The City also proposes to swap city funds for federal funds in FY 2021 and FY 2022 for the Learning Bridges program, emergency food programs, NYC & Company, and the NYC Well expansion. Another $1.3 billion would be used in FY 2021 and FY 2022 to replace budgeted unspecified labor savings, and based on language in the ARPA, the City would offset expenses in the Department of Sanitation in FY 2022 by claiming $500 million in qualified revenue losses due to COVID-19. Budget documents also show $329 million in stimulus funding for rental assistance over FY 2021 and FY 2022, as well as $280 million for the Department of Correction in FY 2022.

Most new initiatives would be temporary, such as the Cleanup Corps, the Public Health Corps, small business recovery and reopening grants, an expanded pilot to respond to non-violent 911 mental health emergencies, and new and expanded summer youth programs. But some initiatives would receive stimulus funding over the four-year financial plan, including funding of overhead for nonprofits, as previously agreed to by the Administration but not implemented, restoration of Sanitation Department street litter basket collection, continuing the Open Restaurants program, and funding to scale back the hiring freeze implemented with the Preliminary Budget in January.

In addition to the ARPA local government relief funds, the Department of Education will receive a total of nearly $7 billion in federal stimulus education funding through the State budget, including $2.15 billion from the December 2020 Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations Act (CRRSA) and $4.8 billion from the ARPA. Education stimulus would be more spread out over the next four years, with 45% of funds used in FY 2022, 25% in FY 2023, and 20% in FY 2024.

Over the financial plan, the City plans to fund a citywide expansion of 3K by using $381 million of CRRSA funds and $1.6 billion in ARPA funding. In FY 2025, the City would fund the 3K expansion with $376 million in ARPA funds and $376 million in city funds. Stimulus education funds would also provide $850 million for a new academic recovery program, $532 million for special education services, $233 million for information technology, $300 million for mental health staff and services, $532 million for curriculum support, $508 million to restore previously proposed cuts, $1.4 billion for “operational support,” and $308 million for “programmatic support.” In total, the City plans to use $3.1 billion in education stimulus funding in FY 2022, $1.8 billion in FY 2023, $1.4 billion in FY 2024, and $530 million in FY 2025.

The recently enacted New York State budget requires school districts to post a plan and solicit public feedback on how ARPA funds will be spent and how certain expenses, including returning to in-person learning, addressing COVID impacts, and meeting mental health needs, will be prioritized. The Mayor’s proposal must also be approved by the City Council.