New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

While April job growth was slower in the U.S., New York City job ads point to accelerating demand for workers in anticipation of further reopening. But New York City’s vaccination efforts are slowing; only 45% of New Yorkers are at least partially vaccinated, and communities of color continue to face systematic barriers to vaccination.

Safely reopening New York City’s bustling civic life and economy depends on robust and ongoing vaccination efforts that reach our most vulnerable–including older New Yorkers, our homebound neighbors, and New Yorkers of color who bore the brunt of the pandemic. Vaccination is our key to a healthy, vibrant summer.

Until next week — mask up, and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• Figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, May 7^th show the U.S. added only 266,000 payroll jobs in April, evidence of a slowing recovery despite falling COVID cases and widespread reopening (Chart 1).
• The unemployed are disproportionally young, still unvaccinated, and may be reluctant to return to low-wage work. Many others are out of the workforce with childcare and safety concerns. April employment figures for New York City will be available May 20^th.

Chart 1

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED

• The Federal government made approximately 8.5 million vaccine doses available for distribution to states for the week of May 10^th, a slight decrease from last week (Chart 2).

Chart 2

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 498,000 for the week of May 1^st, down from a revised 590,000 the week prior, and have declined steadily from early January (Chart 3). It is the fewest initial claims since 256,000 during the week of March 14^th, 2020 – the week immediately prior to widespread COVID shutdowns.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 15,618,775 unemployed Americans as of the week ending April 17^th, down from 16,009,465 the week prior (Chart 4). Claims continue to rise and fall on alternate weeks, but are trending down from late March.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 4,972,507 for the week of April 17^th, down from 5,194,099 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 6,862,705 from 6,974,909 the week prior, and the fewest continuing claims since May 2^nd, 2020.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

New York City

COVID

• New York City’s vaccination efforts are slowing dramatically with only 45% of city residents, 25% of Black residents and 29% of Hispanic residents having received at least one dose.
• The number of first doses administered in New York City fell to a 7-day average of 15,984 on May 5^th, and has been falling steadily from mid-April highs of over 45,000 daily (Chart 5).
• The number of second doses administered fell to a 7-day average of 28,590 from a recent high over 35,000 at the end of April.
• Despite the lifting of the safety pause, very few single-dose Johnson & Johnson doses are being administered, a 7-day average of only 1,469 on May 5^th.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC DOHM

The Economy

• Data from Burning Glass shows, as of April 23^rd overall New York City job postings are 13% above January 2020 (Chart 6).
• Leisure and hospitality job postings, which were down as much as 74% last May with the shutdown of tourism, are now 8% above pre-pandemic levels, as the industry prepares to meet demand from returning visitors.
• Healthcare job ads are 16% above January 2020, and ads for hiring in financial and professional services have risen close to pre-pandemic levels.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Burning Glass, via Tracktherecovery.org

• After rising from January through late March, New York City small business revenues have fallen again and are down 57% from January 2020 (Chart 7). The short-lived rise in revenue in late March coincided with the arrival of $1,400 Economic Impact Payments authorized by the American Rescue Plan Act. Further gains may require a return of tourists and commuters.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Womply, via Tracktherecovery.org

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Subway ridership continues to steadily climb, as weekday ridership averaged 2.06 million during the beginning of the week ending May 7, 2021 (Chart 8).
• As of Wednesday, May 5, 2021, ridership was down 65% on the subway and 54% on MTA buses, compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending May 7, 2021 include data through Wednesday, May 5.

Taxis and For-hire Vehicles

• The number of daily taxi and for-hire vehicle trips has risen in recent months, following a decline in trips during the winter (Chart 9). As of March 2021, for-hire vehicles recorded an average of 458,777 trips per day, down 40% from the same month in 2019.
• The immediate impact of the pandemic was more severe and the recovery has been slower for taxis, which recorded 76% fewer daily trips in March 2021 (64,346) than in March 2019 (271,952).

Chart 9

SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.

Public Assistance

• The number of New York City residents receiving cash assistance rose to 375,035 in March 2021, as the number of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients rose to 1.69 million (Chart 10).
• Compared to one year ago, enrollment has grown by 15.4% for cash assistance and by 13.8% for SNAP.

Chart 10

SOURCE: New York City Human Resources Administration, Monthly Fact Sheets.

City Life

• During the pandemic, rodent inspections conducted by the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene dropped precipitously, with only 4,766 inspections conducted in April 2021 (Chart 11).
• The share of inspections finding rat activity (tracks, burrows or droppings) increased to 36% in April 2021, up from only 12% in April of 2019.

Chart 11

SOURCE: NYC Open Data

City Finances

• New York City personal income tax withheld in February, March and April of 2021 met or exceeded that withheld in the same months of 2019 and 2020 (Chart 12).
• February to April income tax withheld in 2021 was 3.1% higher than 2020, buoyed by a combination of steady wage income, and a strong season for Wall Street bonuses.

  Chart 12

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Taxation

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $8.0 billion as of Wednesday, May 5^th. At the same time last year, the City had $7.4 billion (Chart 13).
• Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 13

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

There is no Spotlight this week.