New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

U.S. job openings hit an all-time high in March, and the New York City area set an all-time record for venture capital investment in the first quarter of 2021.

But just as more economic indicators point to an accelerating recovery, New York City’s pace of COVID vaccination continues to slow, with fewer than half of New York City residents vaccinated. Safely reopening New York City’s economy depends on robust and ongoing vaccination efforts that reach our most vulnerable–including older New Yorkers, our homebound neighbors, and New Yorkers of color who bore the brunt of the pandemic. As of Thursday May 13th, children age 12 to 15 are eligible for vaccination too – bringing us one more step closer to a full recovery.

Until next week — mask up, and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• The consumer price index for all-urban consumers increased by 4.2% in April, from April a year ago, the fastest increase since 2008, driven by a 25.1% increase in energy prices, and a 49.6% increase in gasoline prices.
• BLS figures from Tuesday May 11^th show the number of U.S. job openings hit an all-time high of 8.1 million in March 2021, another indicator of an accelerating U.S. economic recovery (Chart 1).

Chart 1

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED

• The F.D.A. approved Pfizer’s COVID vaccine for children age 12-15.
• The Federal government made approximately 8.9 million vaccine doses available to states for the week of May 17^th, a decrease of some 600,000 doses from the week before (Chart 2). No single-dose vaccines will be distributed this week as Johnson & Johnson struggles with manufacturing issues following an earlier pause for safety review.

Chart 2

SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 473,000 for the week of May 8^th, down from a revised 507,000 last week (Chart 3). It is a new record low since the onset of the pandemic, for the second week in a row. Initial claims have fallen by almost 50% from early January.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 16,345,121 unemployed Americans as of the week ending April 24^th, up from 15,620,850 the week prior, and 16,009,465 two weeks prior (Chart 4). Continuing claims remain high despite a strengthening economy, and may be a drag on employment growth.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) rose to 5,265,193 for the week of April 24^th, up from 4,973,804 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) rose to 7,283,703, up from 6,863,451 the week prior.

 Chart 4

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

New York City

COVID

• With less than half of New York City residents vaccinated, the number of first vaccine doses administered fell to a 7-day average of 12,704 on May 13^th, a steady decline from the recent peak of 49,367 on April 13^th. New York City must redouble its outreach efforts to avoid a COVID resurgence next winter.
• Second doses administered fell to a 7-day average of 27,740 following a spike of 45,958 on May 7^th, lagging the earlier spike in first doses.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

The Economy

• New York – New Jersey metropolitan area consumer prices increased 3.2% in April from a year ago, the fastest price growth since 2011, driven by energy and gasoline prices (Chart 6).
• April housing costs, the traditional driver of New York City’s high cost of living, increased 2%, and residential rent increased 0.3% from a year ago. Apart from last month, which also showed a 0.3% increase, it was the smallest recorded year-over-year increase in New York area rent since 1958.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Resale price indices from Streeteasy.com show New York City home prices continued to trend down in March 2021, and have been declining since 2018, especially in Manhattan (Chart 7). Prices have been stable in Queens, with a milder decline in Brooklyn.

Chart 7

SOURCE: StreetEasy.com

NOTE: Indices track changes in resale prices of condo, co-op, townhouse and single-family homes in Manhattan, Brooklyn, and Queens using a repeat-sales method comparing the sales prices of the same properties since January 1995 in Manhattan, and January 2005 in Brooklyn and Queens.

• New York area venture capital investment hit an all time high of $10.6 billion in the first quarter of 2021, trailing only Silicon Valley among U.S. regions (Chart 8).

Chart 8

SOURCE: PwC / CB Insights MoneyTree™ Report – Q1 2021.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Subway ridership continues to set new pandemic-era records, topping 2.2 million for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic on two days in the most recent week of data. Average weekday ridership has now surpassed 2 million for the last four weeks (Chart 9).
• As of Wednesday, May 12, 2021, ridership was down 63% on the subway and 50% on MTA buses, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending May 14, 2021 include data through Wednesday, May 12.

Bicycle Ridership

• The biking boom continued during April at most locations with a Department of Transportation bike counter (Chart 10). Compared to 2019, the largest increases in April bike ridership occurred on the Queensboro Bridge (40% increase), Prospect Park West (35% increase), and the Pulaski Bridge (26% increase).

Chart 10

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of New York City Department of Transportation, Bicycle Counts.

NOTE: The Kent Avenue counter is between North 8^th Street and North 9^th Street.

City Life

Water Bills

• New data released at the May 10, 2021 New York City Water Board meeting shows that water consumption in the city is down 4.7% for the fiscal year through the end of April. Consumption has fallen 18.4% at non-residential properties and 1.6% at large residential buildings, while water consumption is up 3.0% at small residential properties (Chart 11).
• The pandemic and economic downturn has also caused the number of delinquent accounts to rise. As of March 31, 2021, an additional 16,651 accounts were more than 180 days overdue, a 26.6% increase from last year. Officials have proposed a 2.76% water and sewer rate increase for FY 2022.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Meeting of the New York City Water Board, May 10, 2021.

Times Square Foot Traffic

• Foot traffic has ticked up in Times Square over the last couple months, reaching close to 134,000 average daily visitors in April (Chart 12). While the number of visitors is up 51% since February, only one-third of the pre-pandemic foot traffic has returned so far.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.

City Finances

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $7.97 billion as of Wednesday, May12^th. At the same time last year, the City had $6.71 billion (Chart 13).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 13

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

Spotlight

There is no Spotlight this week.