New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

New York City private employment increased by a seasonally adjusted 53,000 in April, as the City’s unemployment rate fell from 11.2% to 10.8%. Expect the good news to keep coming in May with greater reopening and vaccinated New Yorkers eager to reclaim their lives.

We’ve come a long way, but many lingering impacts of COVID remain. Let’s not forget those who lost their livelihoods, homes, and loved-ones.

Until next week —  let’s rediscover the New York we love!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• County level data for the 4^th quarter of 2020 released by the Bureau of Labor statistics on Wednesday, May 19^th shows that COVID drove employment down, but average wages up, particularly in counties with high population density. Average wages rose with employment losses concentrated in low-wage sectors of the economy, leaving higher wage employees working (Table 1).
• Year-over-year Manhattan employment fell by 15.6%, a larger percentage decrease than 352 out of the 357 largest U.S. counties (exceeded only by counties such as tourism dependent Maui, and oil dependent Midland, TX – not shown).
• In contrast, average Manhattan wages increased by 20.9% from the fourth quarter of 2019, more than all but 5 U.S. counties, among them a 44.3% increase in San Francisco average wages.

Table 1: County Level Employment and Average Weekly Wages, 4^th Quarter 2020

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, rankings include only the 357 largest U.S. counties.

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 444,000 for the week of May 15^th, down from a revised 478,000 the week prior (Chart 1). It is a new record low since the onset of the pandemic, for the third week in a row.

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including PEUC and PUA, together covered 15,441,132 unemployed Americans as of the week ending May 1^st, down from 16,371,841 the week prior (Chart 2).
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 5,141,311 for the week of May 1^st, down from 5,291,528 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) rose to 6,605,416, down from 7,284,088 the week prior.

 Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

New York City

COVID

• FDA’s May 12^th approval of Pfizer’s COVID vaccine for use in children age 12 to 15 coincided with a rise in first doses administered in New York City to 21,053 on May 19^th, up from a seven-day average of 16,116 on May 12^th daily (Chart 3).
• Second doses administered fell to a seven-day average of 23,087 on May 20^th, a steady decline from the peak of 46,118 on May 7^th.

Chart 3

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

The Economy

• Despite slower than expected U.S. employment growth in April 2021, seasonally adjusted New York City private employment grew to 3,571,000, a relatively robust increase of 53,000 from March 2021, and an increase of 389,000 from April 2020 (Chart 4).

Chart 4

SOURCE: NY DOL, seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB

• Employment growth was concentrated in accommodation and food services, where New York City added a seasonally adjusted 21,000 jobs with expanded reopening. The City also added 13,000 jobs in professional and business services, and 10,000 in educational and health services.
• Despite these increases, New York City employment remains 512,000 below the seasonally adjusted peak of 4,083,000 in February 2020.

Table 2: April 2021 New York City Employment, Seasonally Adjusted

SOURCE: NY DOL, seasonally adjusted by NYC OMB

• New York City’s unemployment rate fell to 10.8% in April, from 11.2% in March (Chart 5; not seasonally adjusted).
• The unemployment rate remains elevated from pre-pandemic levels under 5%, especially for Black New York City residents, of whom 15.4% remain unemployed.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NY DOL, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program, unemployment by Race/Ethnicity from the Current Population Survey, 3-month averages.

• Updated data from Streeteasy.com show median asking rents rose to $2,499 in April 2021, from $2,495 in March – a small increase, but the first rise since the onset of the pandemic (Chart 6).
• The number of apartments available for rent fell to 55,483 in April, down from 58,567 in March and a peak of over 75,000 last August. It is the fewest available apartments since June 2020, but well above the pre-pandemic 27,053 of February 2020.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Streeteasy.com

Public Assistance

• Medicaid enrollment has continued to rise throughout the pandemic in New York City. Since March 2020, enrollment expanded 16%, growing from 3.39 million to 3.93 million in April 2021 (Chart 7).

Chart 7

SOURCE: New York State Department of Health, Medicaid Enrollment Databook.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Subway ridership continues to slowly climb and set new pandemic-era records. Weekday ridership has now averaged more than 2.1 million for the last three weeks (Chart 8).
• As of Wednesday, May 19, 2021, ridership was down 62% on the subway and 50% on MTA buses, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Figures for the week ending May 21, 2021 include data through Wednesday, May 19.

Ferry Ridership

• Ridership on the NYC Ferry has recovered faster than other forms of public transportation. In the first quarter of 2021 (January-March), weekday ridership was down 39% from a daily average of 10,006 in 2019 to 6,055 in 2021. Ridership had been down 48% in the fourth quarter of 2020 (Chart 9).
• Average weekend ridership nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter and was down only 3%. Weekend ridership gains was buoyed by a 91% increase on the Astoria route, which added a stop on the Upper East Side in August 2020.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of New York City Ferry, Quarterly Reports.

City Finances

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $9.38 billion as of Wednesday, May 19^th. At the same time last year, the City had $5.04 billion (Chart 10).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the second quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through June 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

Spotlight

The Return to Transit

In recent months, more and more New York City residents, commuters and visitors have begun to venture out and travel inside and outside the city. With the rise in temperatures and vaccination rates, and the drop in covid cases, ridership has climbed across all modes of transportation, including the subways, buses, and commuter trains.

On MTA subways, average weekday ridership climbed from being down 70% in February 2021 to 63% in early May (Chart S.1). The subway system hit a pandemic high of 2.27 million on Friday, May 14^th, the highest record since March 2020 yet still far below the 5 million-plus riders that traveled by subway each day before the pandemic. The lifting of covid restrictions and the return of 24-hour subway service on May 17^th should lead to even greater ridership numbers in the coming weeks.

Similarly, riders have returned to the Long Island Rail Road (LIRR) and Metro-North Railroad (MNR). As of early May, average weekday ridership was down 69% on the LIRR and 73% on MNR, up from 79% and 81% in February, respectively. The commuter rails also hit recent highs on Friday, May 14^th, reaching 104,900 riders on the LIRR and 85,700 on MNR.

Despite the recent gains in public transit, the return to automobiles has been far stronger. Vehicle traffic on MTA bridges and tunnels recovered the fastest during the pandemic and is currently down just 10% from pre-pandemic norms. For a variety of reasons, driving has been a more desirable short-term option for some commuters, but in the long term, a wholesale return to mass transit will be critical to the city’s economic recovery.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of MTA, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.