New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

All metrics point to a continuing New York City economic recovery. But while some measures, such as job ads and new apartment leases, have risen above pre-pandemic levels, most remain well below. We still have a long way to go to heal from the pandemic’s economic damage to New York City businesses and families.

Until next week —  let’s go Nets!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 5.0% from a year ago, the largest annual increase in consumer prices since 2008 (Chart 1), but this measure is driven in part by the pandemic dip in prices in spring 2020.
• May gas prices were up 56.2% from a year ago, when energy prices were depressed due to the pandemic, but declined 0.7% from April.
• Consumer demand is driving up prices for airline fares, which are up 7.0% from April and 24.1% from a year ago, and used cars, whose prices are up 7.3% from April and 29.7% from a year ago.

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 376,000 for the week of June 5^th, down from 385,000 the week prior (Chart 2). It was the sixth straight weekly decline, and yet another pandemic-period low.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including pandemic programs PEUC and PUA, together covered 15,069,511 unemployed Americans as of the week ending May 22^nd, down from 15,152,028 the week prior (Chart 3).
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 5,231,952 for the week of May 22^nd, down from 5,301,821 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 6,347,472, down from 6,360,202 the week prior.

 Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

The New York City Economy

• The latest data from Burning Glass shows reopening driven demand for workers continues to surge, with the 3-week average overall job ads, as of June 4^th, 2021, 12% above January 2020 (Chart 4).
• Job ads in leisure and hospitality are 28% above pre-pandemic levels, after being down over 70% in May of 2020 and January of 2021.
• Job ads in higher paying sectors, such as finance and professional services, are down 8% as of June 4^th, 2021, but have flirted with a return to pre-pandemic levels in recent weeks.

Chart 4

SOURCE:  Burning Glass, via Tracktherecovery.org

• Douglas Elliman figures released Thursday June, 10^th show New York City’s higher-end, brokered, rental market strengthening across all metrics in May.
• Manhattan annual rental prices per square foot rose to $64.94 in May, up from $62.34 in April, as the number of leases signed hit 9,491, well above pre-pandemic levels for the second month in a row (Table 1).
• Manhattan listing inventories remain elevated at 19,025 but have been trending down since February. The vacancy rate fell four percentage points to 7.59%, but remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

Table 1: Douglas Elliman – The Manhattan Residential Rental Market

SOURCE: Douglas Elliman, Elliman Reports

*NOTE: 2021 inventory and vacancy rates reflect expanded collection of listing data

Time Square

• Since March 2021, the number of visitors to Times Square has gradually improved. In May 2021, an average of 148,621 pedestrians visited the area, an 11% increase from April (Chart 5).

Chart 5

SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.

• Visitors are also slowly returning to Times Square hotels. In April 2021, hotels were 40% occupied on average, up from 35% in March, but still far below the 82% pre-pandemic occupancy recorded in February 2020 (Chart 6).

Chart 6

SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Subway ridership held steady last week, averaging around 2.3 million riders each weekday (Chart 7). Weekday bus ridership has averaged around 1.2 million for the past two months.
• As of Wednesday, June 9, 2021, ridership was down 60% on the subway and 50% on MTA buses, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Data presentation differs from prior versions of the ridership chart. The presentation has been adjusted to reflect weekly data through Wednesday of each week.

Taxis and For-hire Vehicles

• As the economy has reopened, more people have been using taxis and for-hire vehicles (FHV), such as Uber and Lyft. On average in April 2021, yellow taxi cabs recorded 71,982 daily trips and FHVs recorded 470,299, the highest levels since March 2020 (Chart 8).
• However, the recovery for taxicabs and ride-sharing companies has far to go, particularly for yellow cabs. Compared to the pre-pandemic trend in February 2020, only one-third of yellow taxi trips and 63% of FHV trips have returned.

Chart 8

SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.

City Finances

• Transaction tax revenue from sales of residential and commercial properties, which plummeted during the early stages of the pandemic, rebounded to a 3-month average of $91 million in May (Chart 9).
• Overall transaction tax revenue remains below the recent peak of $147 million in the month of January 2019, and the longer-term trend shows declining revenue, despite the recent rebound.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller, FMS

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $10.83 billion as of Wednesday, June 9^th. At the same time last year, the City had $5.11 billion (Chart 10).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the third quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through September 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

Spotlight

There is no Spotlight this week.