New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

Last week,  President Biden and Vice President Harris signed legislation establishing Juneteenth National Independence Day. Juneteenth is a reminder not only of our progress, but of how much work remains to dismantle systemic racism in our society.

As COVID restrictions lift and economic recovery continues, may we all reflect on our shared history and our fight for a more perfect union.

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 412,000 for the week of June 12^th, up from 375,000 the week prior, and the first increase since the week of April 24^th (Chart 1).

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including pandemic programs PEUC and PUA, together covered 14,611,504 unemployed Americans as of the week ending May 29^th, down from 15,108,868 the week prior (Chart 2).
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 5,157,445 for the week of May 29^th, down from 5,231,952 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 6,120,596, down from 6,374,514 the week prior.

 Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

The New York City Economy

• New York City’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 10.9% in May, down from 11.4% in April, but remains well above the pre-pandemic rate of 3.8% in March 2020 (Chart 3).
• The unemployment rate for Black New York City residents (3-month average) continued to fall, but remained elevated at 11.6% in May.

Chart 3

SOURCE:  Seasonally adjusted NYC rate from NY Department of Labor, by race/ethnicity from the Current Population Survey, 3-month averages

• Based on the first four months of 2021, permits for construction of new housing units in New York City are projected to rebound to over 21,000 in this calendar year, well above the 19,578 newly permitted in 2020 (Chart 4).
• Newly permitted housing units in Westchester and Nassau counties have surged at a pace that suggests a roughly doubling of new housing units from 2020, when 2,471 new units were permitted in Westchester County and 1,346 in Nassau County, likely driven by COVID related demand for greater living space.
• In absolute terms, the bulk of new housing construction in the area will remain within New York City.

Chart 4

SOURCE: HUD

Public Assistance

• Even as the recovery gains strength, many New Yorkers are still struggling. The number of city residents receiving food assistance through the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) rose to 1.72 million in April 2021, the highest number since January 2015 (Chart 5).
• Compared to April 2020, the number of SNAP recipients in New York City is up 11% and the number of cash assistance recipients is up 13%.

Chart 5

SOURCE: New York City Human Resources Administration, Monthly Fact Sheets.

• Medicaid enrollment also continues to rise. The number of New York City residents enrolled in Medicaid reached 3.96 million in May 2021, an increase of close to 573,000 since February 2020 (Chart 6).
• All five boroughs have seen expansions in Medicaid enrollment, but growth has been highest in Queens, as enrollment rose 20% from under 900,000 in February 2020 to 1.08 million in May 2021.

Chart 6

SOURCE: New York State Department of Health, Medicaid Enrollment Databook.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• The steady return to public transit continued last week, as weekday subway ridership averaged more than 2.4 million (Chart 7). Setting another pandemic-era record, on Wednesday, June 16^th, subway ridership climbed above 2.5 million for the first time since March 2020.
• Compared to pre-pandemic norms, on Wednesday, June 16, 2021, subway ridership was down 56%, an improvement from 59% one week prior.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays. Data presentation differs from prior versions of the ridership chart. The presentation has been adjusted to reflect weekly data through Wednesday of each week.

Bicycle Ridership

• The bike boom continued in May 2021, as 616,020 riders crossed the four East River Bridges, an increase of 27% over pre-pandemic levels in May 2019 (Chart 8).
• The highest growth was on the Ed Koch Queensboro Bridge with total May ridership increasing 43% from 119,091 in May 2019 to 169,782 in May 2021.

Chart 8

SOURCE: New York City Department of Transportation, Bicycle Counts.

NOTE: Includes the Ed Koch Queensboro Bridge, Brooklyn Bridge, Manhattan Bridge, and Williamsburg Bridge.

City Finances

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $10.85 billion as of Wednesday, June 16^th. At the same time last year, the City had $5.46 billion (Chart 9).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the third quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through September 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

State Finances

• Following an abrupt drop in state tax revenue last spring caused by a shuttered economy, and the extension of the deadline for filing income taxes from April until July 2020, the fiscal outlook for New York State tax revenues has vastly improved. According to the New York State Comptroller’s cash basis report for May 2021, the State collected $20.9 billion in tax revenue over the first two months of the state fiscal year, more than triple the amount received one year ago, and up 35% from 2019 (Table 1).
• Despite the lingering impacts of the pandemic, the State collected $16.4 billion in personal income tax revenue in April and May 2021, up 40% from collections of $11.7 billion in 2019. Growth was fueled by a $2.5 billion increase in estimated payments and a 6% rise in withheld taxes. Consumption and use taxes were also up 47% over last year and 6% over 2019.

Table 1: New York State All Funds Tax Revenue ($ in millions)

SOURCE: Office of the New York State Comptroller, Monthly Cash Basis Reports.

Spotlight

There is no Spotlight this week.