New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

Last week, we celebrated Independence Day and threw a ticker-tape parade for the frontline heroes that carried us through city’s darkest days.

Demand for workers in New York City continues to surge, with overall job ads 14% above pre-pandemic levels. But the City still has a long way to go on many fronts, including tourism and, in the Spotlight this week, the arts.

As we celebrate our path to recovery, may we never forget the sacrifices that made every step possible.

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims remained flat at a seasonally adjusted 373,000 for the week of July 3^rd, up a hair from 371,000 the week prior (Chart 1).

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including pandemic programs PEUC and PUA, together covered 14,018,245 unemployed Americans as of the week ending June 19^th, down from 14,429,807 the week prior (Chart 2).
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 4,908,107 for the week of June 19^th, down from 5,261,991 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 5,824,831, down from 5,935,630 the week prior.

 Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

The New York City Economy

• According to July 2^nd data from Burning Glass, demand for workers in New York City continues to surge with overall job ads 14% above pre-pandemic levels, driven by a 28% increase in leisure and hospitality job ads compared to January 2020 (Chart 3).
• Finance job ads have risen to 8% above pre-pandemic levels, but ads in professional and business services have weakened in recent weeks, to 13% below the levels in January 2020.

Chart 3

SOURCE: Burning Glass, via Tracktherecovery.org

• The share of employed New York City residents working from home due to COVID fell to 28.2% in June, from 31.2% in May. It was the fourth straight monthly decline from a recent peak of 43.5% in February (Chart 4).

Chart 4

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, COVID supplement

• Zillow data for New York City area counties updated through the end of May provides an example of the “Donut Effect” COVID has had on U.S. real estate, with prices surging in the suburbs and stagnating or even falling in city centers (Chart 5).
• Manhattan home values fell 4% from January 2020 through early 2021, a continuation of the recent pre-Covid trend, but edged up in May 2021 for the first time since 2018.
• Bronx home prices, which were growing faster than any county in the region prior to the pandemic, have flattened, rising only 2% since January 2020.
• Fairfield and Suffolk County home prices have surged 19% since January 2020.

Chart 5

SOURCE: Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) – smoothed, seasonally adjusted, “typical” homes valued in the 35^th to 65^th percentile of area homes

• Douglas Elliman figures released Thursday, July 8^th show Manhattan’s higher-end, brokered rental market strengthened across all metrics in June (Table 1). Metrics for rental markets in Brooklyn and Queens (not shown) were mixed.
• Average rents per square foot rose for the fourth consecutive month, and 9,642 new leases were signed, the highest monthly total since tracking began in 2008. Listed inventories plunged to 11,853, from 19,025 in May.

Table 1: Douglas Elliman – The Manhattan Residential Rental Market

SOURCE: Douglas Elliman, Elliman Report, June 2021 Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens Rentals

*NOTE: 2021 inventory and vacancy rates reflect expanded collection of listing data

Travel and Tourism

• After roughly four months of steady gains, transit ridership has dipped in recent weeks, possibly due to the end of the school year and the July 4^th holiday (Chart 6).
• On Wednesday, July 7, 2021, subway ridership was down 56% and bus ridership was down 48%, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.

• In recent months, the recovery in taxi trips gained steam. From January to May 2021, average daily yellow taxi trips rose 83% from 44,052 to 80,499 (Chart 7). Over the same period, average daily trips recorded by high volume for-hire vehicles (FHV), such as Uber and Lyft, increased 24%.
• However, the number of trips and vehicles are still far below pre-pandemic norms. Compared to 2019, average daily trips were down 67% for yellow taxis and 34% for FHVs in May 2021.

Chart 7

SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.

• About 5.7 million passengers traveled through airports in the New York City region in May 2021, up sharply from 378,000 passengers in May 2020 but still 54% below the 12.5 million passengers who flew in May 2019 (Chart 8).
• More recently, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey announced that travel volumes were down 44% for the week of June 14-20, 2021, compared to 2019.
• The pace of recovery in New York City continues to lag the rest of the country. Compared to 2019, nationwide air travel volume was down 33% in May 2021 and 26% in June 2021.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller analysis of data released by the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration. 

NOTE: New York City airports include John F. Kennedy International, Newark Liberty International, LaGuardia and Stewart International.

• New York City’s limited recovery in tourism is observable in hotel revenues as well. According to recently released figures from the American Hotel and Lodging Association, May 2021 revenue per available hotel room (RevPAR) in New York City was $95, compared to $254 in May 2019. It is the largest absolute decline among major U.S. hotel markets (Chart 9).

Chart 9

SOURCE: American Hotel and Lodging Association, Depression/Recession Hotel Markets – June 2021

City Finances

• In spite of a near record year of profits and high bonuses on Wall Street, New York City personal income taxes withheld from the salaries of those employed in New York City in fiscal year 2021 fell 1.4% from 2020, as employment losses impacted the earnings of lower-wage workers across all sectors of the economy.
• City withholding lagged growth in New York State (4.7%) and the nation as whole (7.3%). U.S. withholding was boosted by strong growth in California (14.4%).

Chart 10

SOURCE:  NYS Dept. of Taxation and Finance, U.S Dept. of Treasury, California Legislative Analyst’s Office.

NOTE: Data for NYC and NYS is for July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021, corresponding to the City fiscal year. (CA data is through June 25, 2021).  US fiscal year begins Oct 1. New NYS withholding tables, reflecting recently enacted tax rate increases, took effect July 1,2021.

COVID-19 Spending

• On June 30^th, the City released its FY 2022 Adopted Budget and modified budget for FY 2021. The modified budget increased FY 2021 COVID related spending by $845 million to $7.78 billion.
• COVID related spending is projected to drop to $4.95 billion in FY 2022, and taper off to $456 million by FY 2025.
• Most of the outyear COVID related spending is supported by grants from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) which is expected to support $3.23 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2022 and between $226 million to $452 million in each of FY 2023 through FY 2025.
• Through July 7^th, the City has committed to $5.38 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021 (Table 2). Of this $4.73 billion has been expensed.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to a total of $8 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021.

Table 2: FY 2021 COVID Related Expenditures

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS.

NOTE: Expenditures in Dept. of Emergency Management, Dept. of Education and Dept. of Homeless Services are net of expenditures for food and forage, shown separately.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $14.19 billion as of Wednesday, July 7^th. At the same time last year, the City had $11.54 billion (Chart 11).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the third quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through September 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

Spotlight

Federal Relief for the Performing Arts

In the second and third stimulus packages, Congress approved $16 billion in relief for live performance venues, theaters, museums, and talent representatives. The Shuttered Venue Operators Grant (SVOG) program offers awards based on lost revenue in 2020, up to $10 million per business, to fund a broad range of expenses. However, funding awards, which have been prioritized based on the severity of revenue loss, have been slow to arrive.

As of July 6^th, the Small Business Administration (SBA) has awarded $3.2 billion to 4,222 grantees through the SVOG program, including $381 million to 330 New York City entities. Across the country, applicants have submitted 14,884 requests for a total of $11.7 billion.

Of the awards approved in the city so far, 234 went to entities based in Manhattan, 70 in Brooklyn, 18 in Queens, five in Staten Island, and three in the Bronx. By dollar amount, 85% has gone to Manhattan, 10% to Brooklyn, and 3% to the Bronx (Chart S.1).  Fifteen applicants from the five boroughs have received the maximum $10 million award, including the New York Botanical Gardens, the American Museum of Natural History, Lincoln Center, Carnegie Hall, and seven theatrical production companies.

Chart S.1: Shuttered Venue Operators Grant Awards in New York City, by Borough and by Venue Type

SOURCE: Office of the New York City Comptroller analysis of data from the U.S. Small Business Administration, as of July 6, 2021.

The continued flow of awards will be critical to the city’s performing arts sector, particularly as venues reopen. Employment in the arts, entertainment and recreation industry in New York City, which had dropped to only 43% of pre-pandemic levels in July 2020, has improved but was still only 58% of pre-pandemic levels as of May 2021.