New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

Despite great strides, there is still a long way to go as we work toward full economic recovery across New York City’s many industries and communities. In the spotlight this week – federal aid to restaurants that have struggled to keep their doors open over the last 15 months.

With COVID cases rising, particularly in New York City neighborhoods with low vaccination rates, we must redouble our efforts to get New Yorkers vaccinated before the fall and winter months to prevent another pandemic wave.

Until next week—be safe and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 360,000 for the week of July 10^th, down from a revised 386,000 the week prior (Chart 1). It is the fewest initial claims since the week of March 14^th, 2020.

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including pandemic programs PEUC and PUA, together covered 13,661,541 unemployed Americans as of the week ending June 26^th, down from 14,018,116 the week prior (Chart 2).
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 4,710,359 for the week of June 26^th, down from 4,908,107 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 5,687,188, down from 5,824,831 the week prior.

 Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

The New York City Economy

• Seasonally adjusted private New York City employment increased to 3.6 million in June, an increase of 33,000 from May, led by an increase in 16,000 leisure and hospitality jobs.
• New York City has added 426,000 jobs since April 2020, but employment remains 496,000 below the employment peak of February 2020. If the current pace of job growth continues, it will take about 15 months for private employment to exceed pre-pandemic levels.

Table 1: June 2021 Seasonally Adjusted New York City Employment, by Industry

SOURCE: NY DOL, Seasonally Adjusted by NYC OMB

NOTE: These estimates reflect a recent revision to the methodology NYC OMB uses to seasonally adjust employment estimates, excluding COVID era observations from the process.

• New York City’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell slightly to 10.6% in June, from 10.9% in May (Chart 3). Unemployment rates for Black and Hispanic New Yorkers remain elevated at well over 10%, compared to 8% for white.

Chart 3

SOURCE: NY DOL, LAUS and Current Population Survey

NOTE: 3- month average unemployment rates by race/ethnicity are not seasonally adjusted

• New York City small business revenue has failed to recover from the winter slowdown, and was down 61% from pre-pandemic levels as of June 31^st (Chart 4). The decline is present in other U.S. cities as well, suggesting COVID driven changes in remote work and online shopping have had a lasting impact on where consumers are spending their money.

Chart 4

SOURCE: Womply, via Tracktherecovery.org

• After dipping with the pandemic’s onset, new liquor license approvals surged in 2020, and continue to be approved at a faster rate than before the pandemic. New licenses were approved at 152 New York City locations in June (Chart 5).

Chart 5

SOURCE: New York State Liquor Authority

• The Open Restaurants program was established in 2020 to promote social distancing and assist struggling restaurants. Since last June, more than 6.2 million square feet of new dining space has been approved and integrated into city sidewalks and roadways (Chart 6).
• More than 80% of approved outdoor dining space came online in the first two months of the program and approximately two thirds of approved outdoor dining space is on sidewalks.
• In the first half of 2021, an average of 66,800 square feet of new outdoor dining space was approved each month. Space in Manhattan typically accounts for half of new approved outdoor dining space each month.

Chart 6

SOURCE: NYC Open Data

• On Thursday, July 15^th, the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene released data showing the Delta COVID variant had surged to account for 69% of New York City COVID cases, up from 44% the week prior.
• The most recent national COVID surge among populations with low vaccination rates is happening in New York City as well. The New York City zip codes with the highest rates of positive COVID tests all have vaccination rates below 50% (Chart 7).

Chart 7

SOURCE: NYC DOHMH

Public Assistance

• The number of New Yorkers receiving benefits through the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) remained elevated through May 2021 (Chart 8). Since February 2020, the number of SNAP recipients has grown 16% from 1.48 million to 1.72 million in May 2021.
• More than 377,000 New York City residents received cash assistance in May 2021, an increase of 15% since February 2020.

Chart 8

SOURCE: New York City Human Resources Administration, HRA Monthly Fact Sheets.

Travel and Tourism

• Weekday subway ridership averaged about 2.38 million last week, slightly below pandemic-era highs reached in June (Chart 9). Weekday bus ridership has also dipped, averaging close to 1.15 million most recently.
• On Wednesday, July 14, 2021, subway ridership was down 54% and bus ridership was down 45%, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.

• In June 2021, average daily visitors to Times Square jumped 14% from the prior month. However, foot traffic was still only 43% of its pre-pandemic 2019 level (Chart 10).

Chart 10

SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.

City Finances

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $14.02 billion as of Wednesday, July 14^th. At the same time last year, the City had $12.02 billion (Chart 11).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the third quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through September 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 11

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

State Finances

• The State’s fiscal outlook continued to be strong in June, as state tax collections totaled nearly $10 billion, an increase of 15% over June 2019 (Table 2). All major categories of taxes exceeded pre-pandemic collections, including 12% growth in the personal income tax, 8% growth in consumption and use taxes, and 34% growth in business taxes.
• Three months into the fiscal year, the State is already $4.8 billion ahead of tax receipt projections in the Enacted Financial Plan for FY 2022.

Table 2. New York State All Funds Tax Receipts ($ in millions)

SOURCE: Office of the New York State Comptroller, Monthly Cash Basis Reports.

Spotlight

Federal Relief for Restaurants

Over the last year and a half, the restaurant industry has been devastated by shutdowns, safety concerns, capacity restrictions, indoor dining bans, and a lack of tourists and commuters. Through June 2021, the restaurant industry has recovered only 41% of its pandemic job losses, despite five months of steady gains.

Many establishments closed permanently, but for those that survived, the $28.6 billion Restaurant Revitalization Fund (RRF) in the American Rescue Plan Act offered a potential lifeline. However, on July 2^nd the Small Business Administration (SBA) announced that the RRF was depleted after funding only one-third of the 278,304 requests. Before it closed, SBA approved about 5,500 awards and $2.8 billion for food and beverage businesses based in New York City. A bill in Congress would allot an additional $60 billion to the fund, but its future is uncertain.

Under the RRF, businesses could apply for up to $5 million per physical location, and $10 million per business, based on lost revenue in 2020. Eligible entities included restaurants, bars, food stands, and caterers, as well as bakeries, wineries, breweries and inns with substantial on-site sales of food and beverage. Funds do not need to be repaid and can be used until March 11, 2023 for a broad range of expenses, such as rent, payroll and maintenance expenses.

On July 9^th, SBA released detailed information on award recipients. Awards in New York City included 317 caterers, 682 bars, 219 snack and nonalcoholic bars, 154 bakeries, 115 food stands and food trucks, 1,533 businesses located in Census-designated Low and Moderate Income (LMI) areas, and 283 franchisees, including 92 Subways and 67 Dunkin Donuts.

Two-thirds of New York City-based grantees received less than $350,000, but by dollar amount, more than 80% of grant funding went to companies with awards of at least $350,000 (Chart S.1). About 12% went to businesses receiving $5 million or more.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller’s Office analysis of data from the U.S. Small Business Administration.

NOTE: Analysis is based on the address of the grantee. Some New York City-based grantees are restaurant groups that represent multiple locations, including locations outside the city. Conversely, restaurant groups based in other locations may include businesses in New York City.

Prior to a court injunction, the fund prioritized small businesses that are at least 51% owned and controlled by individuals in historically disadvantaged groups, which includes women, veterans, and Black, Hispanic, Asian and Native American individuals. In New York City, 58% of funding and 70% of grants went to prioritized businesses, including 1,847 businesses owned by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals, 1,325 businesses owned by women, 44 businesses owned by veterans, and 624 businesses owned by representatives of multiple disadvantaged groups (Table S.1).

Table S.1. Prioritized Restaurant Revitalization Fund Awards to Businesses Based in New York City

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller’s Office analysis of data from the U.S. Small Business Administration.

A total of 58 New York City-based businesses received grants worth $5 million or more, including Eleven Madison Park, Masa, Momofoku, Peter Luger Steakhouse, Milos, Schnipper Restaurants, Amy’s Bread, Katz’s Delicatessen, Le Bernardin, Juice Generation, Gotham Hall, Pier Sixty, Edison Ballroom, Marina del Rey, and Terrace on the Park. Of the 58 grantees with awards worth $5 million or more, 40% are categorized as majority-owned by a priority group.