New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

With COVID cases rising once again with the spread of the Delta variant, the economic data are mixed this week. Subway ridership and office occupancy are growing—along with apartment rents, which have begun rising for the first time since the pandemic. But retail and office rents continue to fall, amid rising vacancy. We’re not out of the woods just yet.

Until next week—be safe and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims jumped to a seasonally adjusted 419,000 for the week of July 17^th, up from 368,000 the week prior (Chart 1). It is the most initial claims since the week of May 15^th, 2021.

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including pandemic programs PEUC and PUA, together covered 12,412,358 unemployed Americans as of the week ending July 3^rd, down from 13,661,560 the week prior (Chart 2). Pandemic programs are slated to end the week of September 5^th, but many states have stopped participating to encourage a return to paid employment.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) fell to 4,134,716 for the week of July 3^rd, down from 4,710,359 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) fell to 5,133,938 down from 5,687,188 the week prior.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

The New York City Economy

• Updated data just released from Streeteasy.com shows the number of apartments listed for rent fell to 50,940 in June, down from 53,197 in May. Inventories have been declining steadily from a peak of over 75,000 in August 2020.
• Median asking rents rose to $2,595 in June, up from $2,500 in May. It is the first increase since the onset of the pandemic; median asking rents had been flat for 7 months following steep declines from April to November 2020.

Chart 3

SOURCE: Streeteasy.com

• According to new data from CBRE, average asking rents across 16 upscale Manhattan retail corridors fell to $615 per square foot in the second quarter of 2021, down from $618 per square foot in the first quarter. Asking rents for Manhattan retail space have been in decline since 2015, but this quarter’s decline was the smallest since 2016.

Chart 4

SOURCE: CBRE, Manhattan Retail, Q2 2021

• New data from Cushman & Wakefield shows asking rents for Manhattan office space fell to $70 per square foot in the second quarter of 2021, down from $72 in the previous quarter, and a peak of $74 in 2020.
• The vacancy rate for Manhattan office space rose to 18%, up from 16% last quarter, and double the rate of 9% back in 2018. Large increases in vacancy rates suggest office rents may have further to fall.

Chart 5

SOURCE: Cushman & Wakefield

• Last week’s data from Kastle System, which measures office use via security fob and keycard swipes, shows New York City metro area office occupancy rose to 24% the week of July 14^th, up from 20.2% the previous week (Chart 6). The 3.8 percentage point increase was one of largest increases among major metro areas, but New York metro area office occupancy remains lower than all but San Francisco and San Jose.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Kastle Systems

Public Assistance

• As of June 2021, more than 3.98 million New York City residents were enrolled in Medicaid, an increase of about 597,000 since February 2020 (Chart 7).
• On a percentage basis, growth has been highest in Queens and Staten Island, which have both experienced a 21% expansion in Medicaid enrollees.

Chart 7

SOURCE: New York State Department of Health, NYS Medicaid Enrollment Databook.

Transportation

• Weekday subway ridership picked up last week, averaging 2.485 million, which was slightly above pandemic-era highs recorded in June (Chart 8).
• The MTA’s recently updated Financial Plan shows a vastly improved financial outlook compared to last year due to $6.5 billion approved in the American Rescue Plan Act and improved fare, toll and tax revenue forecasts. However, as riders have returned, the MTA has had challenges with crew availability and struggled to staff trains and buses. In June, 83.7% of weekday subway runs were on-time systemwide, down from 87.1% in May and 92.6% last June.
• On Wednesday, July 21, 2021, MTA subway ridership was down 55% and bus ridership was down 49%, compared to pre-pandemic norms.

Chart 8

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.

• Close to 667,000 cyclists crossed the four East River bridges in June 2021, roughly in line with volumes reached last June (Chart 9).
• However, trends were not uniform at all bridges. Bike crossings on the Manhattan Bridge were up by 20,681 (13%) while bike volume on the Queensboro Bridge fell 13,065 (7%). Biking was up slightly on the Brooklyn Bridge (1%) but down 3% on the Williamsburg Bridge.

Chart 9

SOURCE: New York City Department of Transportation, Bicycle Counts.

NOTE: Includes the Ed Koch Queensboro Bridge, Brooklyn Bridge, Manhattan Bridge, and Williamsburg Bridge.

City Finances

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $12.96 billion as of Wednesday, July 21^st. At the same time last year, the City had $12.61 billion (Chart 10).
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the third quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through September 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

Spotlight

There is no Spotlight this week.