New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

As New York City continues to get back on its feet, the end of summer could bring some big economic shocks. Pandemic unemployment insurance programs are slated to end on September 5^th, ending benefits for 1.7 million New York State residents. New York State eviction protections are also set to end, putting the homes of thousands of New York City residents at the mercy of a lethargic state rental assistance program.

And in the Spotlight this week, child care vouchers – New York City aid to low-income families for child care is down, another barrier to employment just as many will need to get back to work.

Until next month—be safe and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

Editor’s Note: New York by the Numbers will be taking an August break. Look for us again after Labor Day on Monday, September 13^th.

The Economy

National Indicators

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 400,000 for the week of July 24^th, down from a revised 424,000 the week prior (Chart 1).

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

• Continuing unemployment insurance claims, including pandemic programs PEUC and PUA, together covered 12,755,544 unemployed Americans as of the week ending July 10^th, up from 12,412,374 the week prior (Chart 2). Pandemic programs are slated to end the week of September 5^th, but many states have stopped participating to encourage a return to paid employment.
• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) rose to 4,233,883 for the week of July 10^th, up from 4,134,716 the week prior.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) rose to 5,246,162, up from 5,133,938 the week prior.

 Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor, PEUC provides extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out. PUA covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed and those with poorly documented income, or who are unable to work due to COVID-19. Both were enacted as part of the CARES Act and extended by the American Rescue Plan Act.

The New York City Economy

• The New York Department of Labor no longer releases unemployment insurance totals for New York City, but as of the week of July 24^th, there were 279,230 continuing recipients of regular unemployment insurance in New York State, many of them in New York City (Chart 3).
• As of the week of July 10^th, a further 1,711,911 New York State residents received help through pandemic related PUA, PEUC and Extended Benefits (EB) programs that will expire in September.

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

NOTE: Extended Benefits (EB) is another pandemic related unemployment insurance program available in areas with especially high unemployment.

• Although legal protections have prevented pandemic evictions in New York City, New York’s eviction moratorium is set to expire at the end of August. New York City landlords have filed for over 89,000 evictions between January 2020 and June 2021, over 31,000 of them in the Bronx (Chart 4). The looming backlog threatens thousands with homelessness.
• With federal help, New York State has set aside $2.7 billion for rental assistance, but the money has been slow to reach those that need it most (see for example https:www.nytimes.com/2021/07/25/nyregion/new-york-city-rent-relief.html).

Chart 4

SOURCE: NYU Furman Center

NOTE: Private housing includes rental housing units, but excludes co-ops, condos and NYCHA owned housing. All filings were suspended between March 20th and July 20th, 2020. All new filings and proceedings were suspended from December 28th, 2020 to February 26th, 2021.

• New York City’s Department of Consumer Affairs approved 410 new business licenses in June (Chart 5). Business license approvals are up sharply in recent months, but are still below pre-pandemic levels.

Chart 5

SOURCE: NYC Open Data

• The latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s experimental Household Pulse Survey shows 34% of workers in the New York metro area (an area including Long Island, northern New Jersey, and nearby New York and Connecticut counties) telecommuted between June 23^rd and July 5^th, down from 47% in March, but showing little change since then (Chart 6). The data suggest a pause in regional commuters returning to the office.

Chart 6

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Household Pulse Survey.

Transportation

• Over the last two weeks, MTA subways have carried around 2.5 million riders on an average weekday (Chart 7). Compared to pre-pandemic norms, subway ridership was down 53% and MTA bus ridership was down 43%, as of Wednesday, July 28.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.

• Monthly vehicle traffic at MTA bridge and tunnel crossings on weekends and weekdays have returned to pre-pandemic norms (Chart 8). In June of this year, total weekend crossings were approximately 7.4 million vehicles for the month, similar to pre-pandemic levels.
• Total weekday traffic for the month was 19.5 million in June 2021, 19.9% higher than June 2019.

Chart 8

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller analysis of data from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority.

• Air travel continues to increase in the New York City region but was still 47% below 2019 levels as of June and continues to lag the rest of the country (Chart 9). Nationwide air travel in June 2021 was 26% below that of June 2019.

Chart 9

SOURCE: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration.

• Demand for taxis and for-hire vehicles also continued to rise in June. Since January 2021, average daily trips for yellow taxis have more than doubled, while high-volume for-hire vehicle trips (Uber, Lyft) have grown by 30% (Chart 10).
• As of June 2021, yellow taxi trips had reached only 41% of pre-pandemic levels of June 2019. For-hire vehicles have fared better, reaching 71% of 2019 levels in June.

Chart 10

SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.

City Finances

• In the first month of the City’s fiscal year, income tax revenue withheld from the monthly payrolls of City employees was essentially flat compared to the previous year, held down by job losses in many sectors of the economy, including high wage sectors (Chart 11).
• This performance continues to lag New York State and the nation as a whole, driven by the exceptional strength in California.

Chart 11

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Taxation and Finance, California and U.S data courtesy of the California Legislative Analyst’s Office. July data for US and CA is through week ending July 23^rd. NYS and NYC data is preliminary through July 30^th.

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $11.59 billion as of Wednesday, July 28^th. At the same time last year, the City had $11.42 billion (Chart 12).
• Taking advantage of a provision in the federal CARES Act, the City has deferred payment of payroll taxes from April 2020, which has led to a net improvement in the City’s cash balances of approximately $1.35 billion. Deferrals ended in December 2020 and deferred payments will be due in 2 installments no later than December 2021 and December 2022. Deferred payments are accrued to the fiscal year in which they are due.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the third quarter of FY 2021 and projections for cash balances through September 30^th, 2021, are available here.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller.

Spotlight

Use of Child Care Vouchers Plummets Despite Need

As New York City looks to recover after COVID-19, access to affordable child care is essential. But while many indicators of economic health are slowly recovering, the use of child care vouchers, which provide lower-income families access to free or low-cost child care, remains far below pre-pandemic levels. These vouchers are critical to enabling parents and caretakers to return to work, but as of June 2021, child care voucher use was 27.6% below usage in February 2020.

Last year, the pandemic brought the closure of all child care centers, as well as city offices that process voucher applications, complicating and slowing the process for voucher applications and recertifications. At the same time, disruptions in employment rendered many families ineligible for assistance. During the first four months of FY 2021 (July-October 2020), voucher enrollment for families with cash assistance dropped 26% over the prior year, while voucher use for other eligible children was flat.

Overall, since April 2020, voucher usage has steadily fallen, from 66,417 in February 2020 to 48,095 in June 2021 (Chart S.1). This sustained decline continues to be a barrier for low-income families to afford stable care for their children – care that is needed in order to work or seek employment. The recently adopted city budget for FY 2022 included $482 million for child care vouchers, about the same as the most recent estimate for FY 2021, but 8% below actual spending in FY 2020.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: New York City Administration for Children’s Service, Monthly Flash Reports.

Based on city data for the first four months of the fiscal year, all types of child care facilities have been impacted by the decline in voucher use. For larger, center-based care, voucher use was down by 4,203 on average per month, compared to the beginning of FY 2020, a nearly 14% decline (Chart S.2). Voucher use for family-based child care was down by 2,600 (approximately 9.95%) and informal care was down by 4,082 (50%) from the same time period in FY 2020.

Chart S.2

*1st Four Months of FY 2021

SOURCE: New York City Mayor’s Management Reports.

All families with children should have access to high-quality, affordable child care, and New York should leverage federal relief funds to not only stabilize the sector but also take steps toward realizing that vision. However, in the short-term, in recognition of the impact of COVID-19 on families’ job stability, the City and State must at a minimum ensure that all income-eligible families are able to maintain assistance regardless of pandemic-related disruptions to their employment.