New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

The first edition of New York by the Numbers was published on May 18^th, 2020, as our economy was reeling from the impact of a shutdown put in place to protect the health and lives of New Yorkers. In the two months that the shutdown was in effect, over 900,000 New Yorkers had applied for unemployment benefits; the U.S. unemployment rate had reached the highest level ever recorded; and estimates of lost City tax revenues were in the billions.  We started this newsletter to help New Yorkers track the course of the pandemic and our recovery from the shutdown in as near to real time as possible.

A year and a half later, the tumultuous pace of developments has begun to slow.  Our recovery has been remarkable, but is far from complete. Private sector jobs are still down nearly 12% from their pre-pandemic peak, and unemployment — especially for New Yorkers of color — is too high. Our people are struggling, and we still face great challenges.

As I said in my first message back then: Make no mistake – New York City will recover. Together we have overcome unprecedented challenges, and I know we will rise to those ahead. Change is still coming, but at a more measured pace. Reflecting this, New York by the Numbers will be published on a monthly basis going forward. Look for us on Monday October 4^th, and the first Monday of the month thereafter.

Until next month—be safe and get vaccinated!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

The New York City Economy

• The New York Department of Labor no longer releases unemployment insurance totals for New York City on a weekly basis, but as of the week of August 28^th, there were 249,978 continuing recipients of regular unemployment insurance in New York State, down from 257,582 the previous week (Chart 1). Roughly 50% of regular unemployment insurance recipients in New York State reside in New York City.
• As of the week of August 21^st, a further 1,614,721 New York State residents received help through pandemic related PUA, PEUC and Extended Benefits (EB) programs that expired on September 5^th.

Chart 1

SOURCE: U.S. Dept. of Labor

NOTE: Pandemic programs Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensations (PEUC) and Extended Benefits (EB) expired on September 5^th.

• Following strength earlier in the year, figures released last month show July seasonally adjusted New York City private employment grew by just 17,000 from June. Expect slow job growth to continue in August, followed by a stronger September as schools reopen, college students return, and Broadway turns the lights on.

Table 1: Seasonally Adjusted New York City Employment, by Industry (1,000s)

• Although employment growth slowed over the summer, the latest data from Burning Glass show demand for New York City workers continues to strengthen. As of September 3^rd, overall New York City job ads were running 20% above pre-pandemic levels: roughly 10% higher in finance, and professional and business services, and over 30% higher in leisure and hospitality.

Chart 2

SOURCE: Burning Glass via Tracktherecovery.org

• The share of employed New York City residents working from home due to COVID edged up to 27.5% in August, a one percentage point increase from July, likely on worries about the Delta variant (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, COVID supplement

• Data from CoStar shows available office square footage in New York City declined to 125 million square feet in the 3^rd quarter of 2021, down from 128 million in the 2^nd quarter, the first decline since the onset of the pandemic (Chart 4).
• Average asking rents for office space have fallen from a pre-pandemic $69 per square foot, to $65 in the 3^rd quarter of 2021. CoStar predicts office rents will continue to fall through the 3^rd quarter of 2022, before rebounding.

Chart 4

SOURCE: CoStar, 3^rd quarter, quarter-to-date, square footage and asking rents measured as of 9/7/2021

• With vaccination progress and warmer weather, New Yorkers are spending more time in parks, shopping, eating out, on public transit, and less time at home. As of September 2^nd, time spent at retail and recreation is down 21% from pre-pandemic levels, but was down over 50% in early February (Chart 5).
• Time spent at home remains 8% above pre-pandemic levels, but was up by 19% in early February, and as much as 35% in the height of the pandemic last April.
• Public transit continues to struggle with New Yorkers spending 32% less time in transit stations compared to pre-pandemic levels. The rate has been stagnant since May.

Chart 5

SOURCE: GPS mobility data indexed to 1/3/2020 to 2/6/2020, from Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports.

• Medicaid enrollment in New York City continued to climb in the summer and crossed 4 million enrollees in July (Chart 6). Enrollment has expanded 18% since February 2020.

Chart 6

SOURCE: New York State Department of Health, NYS Medicaid Enrollment Databook.

•  The number of New York City residents receiving cash assistance and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits ticked down slightly in July, but is still well above pre-pandemic levels (Chart 7). As of July, the number of cash assistance recipients was 13% higher than February 2020, while the number of SNAP beneficiaries was up 15%.

Chart 7

SOURCE: New York City Human Resources Administration, HRA Monthly Fact Sheets.

Transportation

• Following an influx of riders in the spring, weekday ridership on MTA subways plateaued in the summer, averaging around 2.4 million riders in recent weeks, or about half of pre-pandemic levels (Chart 8).

Chart 8

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.

• Vehicle traffic on MTA bridges and tunnels also rose rapidly during the spring and has returned to pre-pandemic levels (Chart 9).

Chart 9

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

• Biking continues to be more popular than in 2019, although bike crossings on East River bridges fell slightly below 2020 levels in July (Chart 10).

Chart 10

SOURCE: NYC Comptroller analysis of New York City Department of Transportation, Bicycle Counts.

NOTE: Includes the Brooklyn Bridge, Ed Koch Queensboro Bridge, Manhattan Bridge, and Williamsburg Bridge.

• Yellow taxi cabs recorded an average of 91,011 trips in July, or 3.5 times more than in July 2020. Car trips by for-hire vehicles (Uber and Lyft) reached 74% of 2019 levels as of July, while only 45% of yellow taxi trips had returned. (Chart 11).

Chart 11

SOURCE: New York City Taxi and Limousine Commission, Monthly Data Reports.

• Air travel in the New York City region was 42% below 2019 passenger levels as of July, an improvement from prior months but far below the air travel recovery in the rest of the country (Chart 12). Nationwide, passenger volumes were down 20% in July.

Chart 12

SOURCE: Port Authority of New York and New Jersey and the U.S. Transportation Security Administration.

• Pedestrian traffic in Times Square increased 25% from June to July but was still only 52% of 2019 levels (Chart 13).

Chart 13

SOURCE: Times Square Alliance, Monthly Indicator Reports.

City Finances

• City income taxes withheld from employee payrolls in the first two months of the current 2022 fiscal year (FY) have improved 6.1% compared to the pandemic lows of FY 2021, but remain 3.7% below pre-pandemic levels of FY 2020 (Table 2).
• The City’s performance lags the nation as a whole which continues to benefit from strong growth in the largest state California, where according to data from the Legislative Analyst’s Office withheld taxes are more than 30% higher compared to FY 2020 (not shown).

Table 2: New York City Income Tax Withholding in July and August, Fiscal Years 2020-2022

SOURCE: NYS Dept. Of Taxation and Finance. The City’s fiscal year starts July 1^st.

Spotlight

The New York City Shelter System’s Pandemic Decline

As the COVID-19 pandemic lumbers into its second autumn, New York City’s homeless shelter census has steadily progressed downwards since March 2020 but there are unmet budget needs in the coming fiscal years and uncertain impacts once the statewide eviction moratorium is lifted.  Chart S.1 tracks the total number of individuals in shelter since 2014, with pandemic period changes to the total shelter population highlighted in orange.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: NYC Open Data

Shelter exits during the pandemic period have largely been driven by individuals in families with children leaving shelter, which account for nearly 80% of the overall pandemic decline. The single adult population, which at the pandemic’s outset had surged upwards from its March 2020 baseline by some 1,600 individuals to an historic peak in January 2021, has now decreased as well.  Since January 25, 2021, more than 2,660 single adults have exited the City shelter system, a 14% drop.

The City administers a range of moveout and placement programs for New Yorkers experiencing housing insecurity. Chart S.2 shows the array of programs that the City has employed to place families and individuals into permanent housing since FY 2015.

Chart S.2

SOURCE:  NYC Open Data

More than 175,000 individuals were placed in social services moveout and placement programs between FY 2015 and FY 2021.  Federal programs, including Section 8 vouchers and public housing placements, have been consistently available to individuals experiencing housing insecurity since FY 2015. Additionally, during this period the City has experimented with a number of different approaches, including the now discontinued Living in Communities (LINC) housing subsidy.  In recent years, Family Homelessness & Eviction Prevention Supplement programs (FHEPS) have emerged as the City’s streamlined and most relied upon placement program, serving nearly two thirds of placed individuals in FY 2021.

Based on prior year City FHEPS expenses, the City Comptroller’s Office warned in its Comments on New York City’s Fiscal Year 2022 Adopted Budget report that $202 million in additional city funds contributions may have to be made to rental assistance programs starting in FY 2023.  The City has not funded anticipated recurring expenses for vouchers that are likely to serve households over multiple years.  Complicating this outlook is the State’s eviction moratorium, which was recently extended by Governor Hochul until January 15^th, 2022, the expiration of which could put substantial new pressure on program enrollment as well as the City shelter system.