New York by the Numbers
Monthly Economic and Fiscal Outlook
By NYC Comptroller Brad Lander
Francesco Brindisi, Executive Deputy Comptroller for Budget and Finance
Krista Olson, Deputy Comptroller for Budget
Jonathan Siegel, Chief Economist
Jason Bram, Director of Economic Research
No. 78 – June 13th, 2023
Photo Credit: Oleksandr Berezko/ShutterstockA Message from the Comptroller
Dear New Yorkers,
Like our smoke-filled skies last week, the economic indicators – at both national and local levels – are pretty murky. There are signs of both strength and weakness in the economy, and some things (like the divergence of New York City and New York State personal income tax receipts that we explore below) that are just plain weird.
If you’re looking for a good conversation about the volatility in the post-pandemic economy, I enjoyed Chris Hayes’ recent podcast with Felix Salmon on the “new not normal.” (Chris and I talked earlier this year about trends in New York and other cities.)
One trend that’s important but challenging to predict is the impact of hybrid work on the NYC commercial office market – and consequently on the City’s property tax revenues. In this month’s spotlight, we look at a range of scenarios. We find that the overall impact on City tax revenues is not likely to be large, and almost certainly not catastrophic. Even in the “doomsday” scenario we consider, which envisions property values falling 40% from pre-pandemic levels, we find that the estimated revenue shortfall could be $1.1 billion in FY 2027, a manageable 1.0% of the City’s total budget that year.
Meanwhile, we find that payments to the City from Hudson Yards are coming in higher than budgeted (about $200 million above projections annually, taking into account increases to the amount of tax revenue the City transfers to Hudson Yards each year as well), a bright spot in the commercial real estate sector. (This is an area where the data could lead me to adjust my prior thinking: I had doubts about the financing approach the Bloomberg Administration utilized).
That doesn’t mean everything is hunky-dory, of course. As a recent New York Times analysis showed, coastal cities including NYC – which have long been too expensive for low-income and working class families – are now pricing out college graduates as well. So it’s especially distressing that Albany failed to take any action on housing in the legislative session that concluded this weekend.
Volatile times call for humility, honest assessment of the data, new strategies where old ones won’t work (e.g. props to our public finance team on the innovative tender offer they executed earlier this month, which contributed to saving the City over $100 million, at a time when rising interest rates make straight refinancing less attractive), and adaptive capacity to face changing winds.
We’ll keep watching the numbers, even when they aren’t as clear as we might like.
Sincerely,
Brad Lander
New York City Comptroller
Spotlight
What Risks Does the Office Market Pose for the City’s Finances?
With the dramatic shift toward remote and hybrid work prompted by the pandemic, New York City’s office market has emerged as perhaps the most vulnerable segment of New York City’s economy and tax base.
This month’s Spotlight takes a closer look at the ongoing slump in the local office market and lays out our baseline forecast and how it feeds into tax revenue. We then explore the risks it poses for the City’s fiscal situation. We find that even should a “doomsday” type scenario unfold, with sharply falling property values, the city’s fiscal situation is likely to be manageable.
The U.S. Economy
- Revised estimates show GDP growing at a sluggish 1.3% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023—slightly above the initial estimate of 1.1%—consistent with a “soft landing” in the economy.
- Recently released surveys of business activity have given mixed signals. The ISM manufacturing index was little changed at a weak level of 46.9 in May, while its service-sector index edged down to 54.9, consistent with moderate growth. Consumer confidence dropped to a six-month low, though it remains at a fairly high level.
- Job-market indicators were also mixed in May, with the payroll survey showing a sturdy 339K increase in employment, the household survey showing a surprising 310K drop, and the unemployment rate jumping from 3.4% to 3.7%. Such a wide divergence between these indicators is unusual. While the payroll survey is generally considered a more reliable indicator, it is slow to pick up shifts in net business formation and employment changes at small firms. Thus, the household survey tends to be better at picking up turning points in real time (i.e. prior to data revisions).
- Weekly initial jobless claims, the most timely read on the labor market, climbed by 28,000 to 261,000 (12%) for the week ending June 2nd—the highest level since late 2021. Before seasonal adjustment, unemployment claims rose by a more modest 11,000 (5%), whereas they declined by 1,200 (8%) in New York State. [State figures are not published on a seasonally adjusted basis.]
- The core PCE deflator, an indicator of inflation based on the average pricing of domestic personal consumption, (excluding food and energy) was up 4.7% from a year ago in April, which is still well above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated in May, rising just 0.1%, due to a sharp drop in energy prices, and was up 4% from a year earlier—the slowest annual pace in just over two years. Core CPI inflation, however, continued to run around 5%, both in recent months and over the past year. Excluding shelter (a lagging indicator of real estate prices), core inflation has averaged a more moderate 3.4%.
NYC Labor Markets
- Private employment in NYC declined by 11,000 workers in April on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over 80% of the decline can be accounted for by a drop in the relatively small subsectors representing Trucking, Warehouses, and Storage. This unusual swing suggests a data anomaly due to temporary circumstances or sampling issues.
- The second largest April employment drop was in Health Care and Social Assistance, which fell by 7,000 jobs. Despite this one-month decline, this sector has seen significant growth and remains close to 60,000 jobs above its level one year ago.
- Information technology jobs declined by about 4,500 jobs in April, a continuation of a workforce-trimming trend in the industry this year that has lowered NYC payrolls by 8,000 jobs compared with the second half of 2022, and now sits almost precisely at pre-pandemic levels. Financial sector employment also declined. These trends are likely to continue further through the year, with firms such as Meta and Morgan Stanley recently announcing layoffs.
- Arts, Entertainment and Recreation grew by 4,800 jobs, and Accommodation and Food Services grew by 3,300. These are areas where pandemic recovery has been much slower and suggests that the economy may still be catching up to pre-pandemic levels here.
Table 1: Seasonally Adjusted NYC Private Employment, by Industry
(1,000s) | Seasonally Adjusted NYC Employment | April 2023 Change from | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Industry: | Feb. ’20 | Apr. ’20 | Apr. ’22 | Mar. ’23 | Apr. ’23 | Feb. ’20 | Apr. ’20 | Apr. ’22 | Mar. ’23 |
Total Private | 4108.07 | 3161.72 | 3929.53 | 4094.24 | 4083.21 | -24.862 | 921.49 | 153.683 | -11.03 |
Financial Activities | 487.12 | 469.13 | 480.54 | 494.90 | 493.11 | 5.98 | 23.98 | 12.57 | -1.79 |
Information | 229.17 | 204.17 | 230.56 | 234.06 | 229.61 | 0.44 | 25.44 | -0.95 | -4.46 |
Prof. and Bus. Serv. | 781.26 | 688.11 | 768.23 | 791.34 | 793.91 | 12.66 | 105.80 | 25.68 | 2.57 |
Educational Services | 256.40 | 229.39 | 259.49 | 260.20 | 262.48 | 6.08 | 33.09 | 3.00 | 2.28 |
Health Care and Soc. Assist. | 823.51 | 707.48 | 841.37 | 907.25 | 900.15 | 76.64 | 192.67 | 58.78 | -7.10 |
Arts, Ent., and Rec. | 95.69 | 50.68 | 75.91 | 82.53 | 87.32 | -8.37 | 36.65 | 11.41 | 4.79 |
Accomm. And Food Serv. | 374.42 | 105.77 | 313.36 | 349.69 | 353.02 | -21.40 | 247.25 | 39.66 | 3.33 |
Other Services | 196.09 | 129.20 | 177.31 | 184.06 | 182.51 | -13.58 | 53.31 | 5.20 | -1.55 |
Retail Trade | 346.05 | 230.29 | 307.15 | 305.29 | 305.74 | -40.31 | 75.45 | -1.42 | 0.45 |
Wholesale Trade | 139.81 | 108.25 | 130.43 | 131.28 | 129.45 | -10.36 | 21.20 | -0.98 | -1.83 |
Trans. And Warehousing | 134.91 | 98.83 | 130.07 | 131.84 | 122.99 | -11.92 | 24.16 | -7.08 | -8.85 |
Construction | 162.61 | 87.73 | 142.88 | 150.34 | 150.48 | -12.13 | 62.76 | 7.60 | 0.14 |
Manufacturing | 65.95 | 37.82 | 57.85 | 57.11 | 58.03 | -7.92 | 20.21 | 0.18 | 0.91 |
SOURCE: NYS DOL, NYC Office of Management and Budget, and Office of the New York City Comptroller
NOTE: Due to revisions to earlier months, numbers may not match to previous monthly newsletters.
- Chart 1 shows that employment is still recovering in the industries hardest-hit by the pandemic: Accommodation and Food Services, Construction, Arts and Entertainment, and Retail. In other industries such as Health Care Educational Services and office-based Professional and Business services, Financial Activities, and Information, payrolls are higher than in February 2020.
Chart 1
SOURCE: NYS DOL, NYC Office of Management and Budget, and Office of the New York City Comptroller
- Recently updated data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) show that the NYC average wage in the fourth quarter of 2022 was 7.9% below the same quarter of the prior year. The decline has two explanations:
- End-of-year bonuses were down from 2021, especially in high-paying industries such as finance and information technology.
- Job creation was faster in lower-paying sectors, Chart 2 compares the growth rates in total wages (i.e., average wages times the payroll count) over time for the three highest-paying and three lowest-paying industries. The concentration of layoffs and business closures in lower-pay industries pushed up the average wage in 2020.
- Through 2022, job creation was the fastest among two low-wage industries: Accommodation and Food Services, which has been rebounding with a return to normalcy; and Health Care and Social Assistance, which has been expanding well past pre-pandemic payroll levels.
Chart 2
SOURCE: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Highest-wage sectors are Finance & Insurance, Information, and Professional & Technical Services. Lowest-wage sectors are Accommodation & Food Services, Retail Trade, and Health Care & Social Assistance.
Inflation and Housing Costs
- In the New York metropolitan region, the various measures of CPI inflation have been running about a full percentage point lower than nationwide. The difference is wider for shelter CPI, which increased 5.8% in May year over year in the NYC area, compared to 8.0% for the U.S.
- As seen in Chart 3, the April 2023 median asking rental rate for a one-bedroom apartment in NYC, according to data collected from StreetEasy, increased 14% the previous year. This rise has been accompanied by lower available inventory of around 30,000 apartments since the last quarter of 2021, relative to a pre-pandemic average of around 40,000.
Chart 3
SOURCE: StreetEasy.com
Business and Real Estate
Wall Street Profits
- In the first quarter of 2023, profits for the New York Stock Exchange member firms were $7.32 billion, down almost 60% from the high of $17.97 billion in the first quarter of 2021, and slightly below profits in the first quarter of 2022.
- In the fourth quarter of 2022, total wages in the Securities sector were 15.3% below their level a year prior. The decline took place despite employment gains of 6% over the same period.
Chart 4
SOURCE: Intercontinental Exchange
Commercial Real Estate
- More than three years since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, data on the return to the office for NYC workers indicate stabilization at levels significantly below pre-pandemic levels. Chart 5 shows the monthly ridership on NYC subways, buses, and commuter rail services, as well as weekday bridge and tunnel traffic and the Kastle Systems office entry card swipes, all at a fraction of their pre-pandemic levels. Aside from the bridge and tunnel traffic, all the indicators have been mostly level for several months at rates between 45% and 65% of what they were before March 2020.
- The consequences of this meaningful change to office-based work in NYC are uncertain. This month’s spotlight provides a deeper look into current and projected trends in the market for commercial office space and examines the impact of possible future market scenarios on NYC government revenues.
Chart 5
SOURCE: Metropolitan Transit Authority and Kastle Back to Work Barometer
Homelessness and Asylum Seekers
- The number of people in New York City’s shelters continues to rise, driven primarily by steadily increasing numbers of people seeking asylum (Chart 6). In May 2023, the total number of individuals in Department of Homeless Services’ (DHS) shelters and facilities run by NYC Health + Hospitals and other City agencies, averaged approximately 92,400, double the level one year ago. Recently arrived people seeking asylum represented approximately 45% of the total population.
- From September 2022 to May 2023 the shelter count of people seeking asylum grew 355% while the rest of the shelter population grew by 7%, or about 3,300.
- Between May 3rd and June 4th, the number of people seeking asylum housed by the City increased by approximately 9,600, despite a decline in border crossings since the expiration of the restrictions included in Title 42.
- So far, the City has opened 162 emergency sites, including nine Humanitarian Emergency Response and Relief Centers operated by NYC Health + Hospitals and New York City’s Department of Housing, Preservation and Development.
Chart 6
SOURCE: NYC DHS, NYC Mayor’s Office, Office of the NYC Comptroller.
NOTE: Figures shown are monthly averages. Data on the asylum seeker population within DHS shelters is not available prior to August 31, 2022. Other Facilities include spaces operated by NYCEM, HPD, and DYCD, and those outside of NYC.
City Finances
FY 2024 Property Tax Roll
- Due to property owners filing petitions with the Tax Commission and delay in the recording of some exemptions, the final property tax roll is usually smaller than the tentative roll.
- The average total billable assessed value tentative-to-final reduction was about 1.2% from FY 2019 to FY 2023. For the FY 2024 assessment roll, however, the final billable assessed value was 0.06% higher than the tentative roll.
- Based on the new data, we revised our FY 2024 forecast of the total property tax levy upward by $341.7 million.
Table 2. FY 2024 NYC Property Tax Final Roll ($m)
FY 2024 Tentative and Final Roll | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
DOF Tentative Roll | DOF Final Roll | |||
Tax Class | Market Value | Billable Assessed Value | Market Value | Billable Assessed Value |
1 | $764,986 | $25,112 | $764,441 | $24,895 |
2 | $350,984 | $111,671 | $351,647 | $111,043 |
3 | $45,446 | $20,297 | $49,169 | $21,978 |
4 | $317,167 | $129,707 | $315,724 | $129,037 |
Total | $1,478,583 | $286,786 | $1,480,981 | $286,953 |
SOURCE: NYC Department of Finance FY 2024 Tentative and Final Roll
Increased Payments from Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation
As part of the FY 2024 Executive Budget and April 2023 Financial Plan, baseline net revenues received by the City from the Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation (HYIC) were increased by about $200 million annually.
Some background on these payments:
What is HYIC and why does it pay revenues to the City?
- HYIC was created by the City in 2005 to finance the extension of the 7-subway line and other infrastructure improvements to spur development in Hudson Yards on Manhattan’s far west side. HYIC issued $3 billion in bonds ($2 billion in 2006 and $1 billion in 2011) to pay for the improvements. The City agreed to direct future revenues generated by new development—including one-time developer payments, as well as ongoing revenue from property taxes and payments in lieu of taxes—to pay the debt service on the bonds.[1]i Recognizing that it would take time before these revenues would be sufficient to support the debt service, the City also agreed to make interest support payments to cover these costs. Growing revenues from the development have meant that the City has not needed to provide such support since 2015.
- In 2017 HYIC refinanced $2.1 billion of its original debt. This lowered costs and, under the terms of the transaction, allowed HYIC to transfer to the City surplus revenues above the amount needed for debt service and operating expenses. As seen in Chart 7, from FY 2017 through FY 2023, HYIC has transferred $863 million to the City. HYIC coordinates the timing of these transfers with the Mayor’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and in FY 2022 OMB deferred a planned $100 million transfer until this year, leading to the $200 million payment in FY 2023.
Chart 7
SOURCE: Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation Audited Financial Statements for 2007 through 2022, Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation FY 2023 Budget, FY 2024 Executive Budget and April 2023 Financial Plan
NOTE: While the FY 2023 has not yet closed, the City has already recognized the $200 million in budgeted HYIC payments for the year.
- In the April 2023 Plan, the City increased the amount it expects to receive in future payments from HYIC, which had been previously budgeted at $100 million annually. Payments to the City are now expected to total $325 million in FY 2024, growing to $400 million in FY 2027. These increased payments are partially offset by growth in the amount of property tax revenue the City has budgeted to transfer to the HYIC through Tax Equivalency Payments (described below), for net increases in payments to the City of $207 million in FY 2024, $220 million in FY 2025, $228 million in 2026 and $238 million in FY 2027.
Where Do HYIC Revenues Come From?
- As seen in Chart 8, HYIC receives revenue from several sources, the mix of which has changed over time.
- Non-operating revenue was a major source of income early in HYIC’s history. This includes income from the investment of unapplied bond proceeds as well interest support payments from the City. From FY 2009 though FY 2015, the City provided a total of $359 million in interest support payments.
- Operating revenue from non-recurring sources—largely in the form of upfront payments made by developers—was a major source of income as development in the area first got underway, particularly from FY 2015 through FY 2020. These funds include payments in lieu of mortgage recording taxes, district improvement bonuses (DIBs)—which are paid by developers in exchange for increased density, and the proceeds from the sale of transferable development rights.
- HYIC acquired transferable development rights over the Eastern Rail Yard from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which it sold to developers for increased density.
- Since FY 2020, recurring operating revenue has comprised the majority of HYIC income. Recurring revenue comes in two forms:
- Tax equivalency payments (TEPs) are equivalent to the amount of property taxes levied on new or substantially rehabilitated development in the area—largely residential buildings and hotels, but also some commercial properties that are not eligible to receive area-based discounts in their property taxes. This revenue is collected by the City and appropriated to HYIC. TEPs have increased from $5 million in FY 2007 to $155 million in FY 2023. The April Financial Plan revised TEP payments up from $156 million planned each fiscal year to $174 million in FY 2024, $186 million in FY 2025, $203 million in FY 2026, and $218 million in FY 2027.
- Payments in lieu of property taxes (PILOTs) are made by commercial properties eligible for property tax discounts tied to the Hudson Yards area. To encourage the development of new office space in the area, commercial properties are eligible to receive property tax discounts through PILOT agreements with the Industrial Development Agency (IDA). These payments are different from TEPs in that they are discounted based on the IDA agreements—where buildings must meet certain use, size, and location requirements—and because they are paid directly to HYIC and not subject to City appropriation. HYIC first began receiving PILOT revenue in FY 2015. As more office space has come online, PILOT revenues have grown from $4 million in FY 2015 to $183 million expected in FY 2023 and are budgeted to reach $263 million in FY 2027.
Chart 8
SOURCE: Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation Audited Financial Statements for 2007 through 2022, Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation FY 2024 Budget
NOTES: Proceeds from the sale of transferable development rights are included in HYIC Audited Financial Statements not as revenues but as decreased assets once sold. Chart excludes revenues from bond proceeds and from a term loan agreement entered into in 2019 for additional infrastructure improvements. Loan amounts total $5.5 million in FY 2023, $168 million in FY 2024, $76 million in FY 2025, $61 million in 2026 and $38 million in 2027.
- On the other side of the ledger is HYIC’s debt service and operating expenses, which include interest and principal on the bonds and administrative costs (Chart 9). These costs are currently budgeted to remain relatively flat at an average of $168 million from FY 2023 through FY 2027. This means that—absent more financing—the amount of surplus revenues and transfers to the City should continue to increase. HYIC has indicated, however, that it expects to issue additional bonds in future to repay a term loan being used to finance the remaining costs of park improvements in the area. Depending on future revenue growth and the costs associated with the borrowing, this could reduce future transfers to the City.
Chart 9
SOURCE: Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation Audited Financial Statements for 2007 through 2022, Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation FY 2024 Budget
NYS and NYC Personal Income Taxes
The New York State (NYS) Comptroller’s cash report for the month of April showed a $4.8 billion shortfall of NYS personal income tax (PIT) collections relative to the Governor’s forecast dated March 3, 2023. Meanwhile, our May Newsletter showed NYC PIT April collections to be above NYC OMB’s January expectations by more than $1 billion. Irrespective of these “April surprises”, here we compare State and City trends in personal income tax revenues.
- In Chart 10 we show 12-month trailing sums of NYS and NYC PIT revenues indexed to their pre-pandemic level in December 2019. (This replicates the methodology used in a recent Bloomberg opinion article that focuses on NYS PIT.) Besides transitory anomalies due to changes in filing deadlines in 2020 and 2021, the series show increasing revenues before steep declines in 2022 for NYS and 2023 for NYC. As of May 2023 (preliminary data), PIT 12-month trailing sums are:
- 3.9% below the pre-pandemic level for NYS.
- 8.6% above the pre-pandemic level for NYC.
Chart 10
SOURCE: Office of the NYS Comptroller (Schedule E), NYS Department of Taxation and Finance, Office of the NYC Comptroller.
- But a more complete picture of what is occurring in PIT collections at the State and City levels must include NYS and NYC Pass-Through Entity Taxes (PTETs), which are optional taxes created to circumvent the cap on State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions from Federal taxable income.
- PTETs are business taxes and, as such, they are fully deductible from federal AGI, while PITs are subject to the SALT cap. A more detailed overview of NYC PTET is available in our 2022 State of the City’s Economy and Finances.
- As a conceptual matter, pass-through entities (partnerships, S-corporations) that elect to pay PTETs reduce the PIT liability by a corresponding amount. Therefore, it is misleading to examine PIT collections alone.
- NYS and NYC PTET distort both the timing and magnitude of income tax payments, as there is overlap between PIT and PTET estimated payments, as is explained further below.
- In Chart 11, we show the combined PIT and PTET revenues. This chart shows that, as of May 2023 (preliminary), total NYS and NYC personal income taxes were 24.6 percent and 24.1 percent above their pre-pandemic level, respectively. The combined collections reflect several income and collections developments:
- NYS revenues grew faster than NYC’s up to April 2022. In that month, NYS taxes were 80.7% above 2019 levels versus 35.9% for NYC. This was mainly due to the implementation in tax year 2021 of higher PIT rates at the state level and first-year collections of NYS PTET.
- In their first year of implementation, PTET payments preceded their unwinding through credits on PIT tax returns. This can be seen as increased revenues for NYS in December 2021 and for NYC in December 2022.
- PIT liability lowered by PTET credits contributes to the fall in NYS revenues after April 2022 and NYC revenues in April 2023.
- The recently released NYS FY204 Enacted Budget Financial Plan reports that PTET credits amounted to $17.0 billion in State FY 2023 (April 2022 – March 2023).
- There was a significant increase in non-wage income in 2021 (see our April spotlight),with a subsequent decline in 2022. Similarly, there was also a record level of Wall Street bonuses paid in 2021 with a subsequent decline in 2022.
- NYS taxes started dropping significantly in December 2022 while the City’s were pushed up by the simultaneous implementation of NYC PTET.
- NYS and NYC taxes showed nearly identical drops (relative to the 2019 baseline) in April 2023.
- Several additional factors affecting these revenues include:
- Households and businesses receiving unprecedented levels of Federal aid in 2020 and 2021 (see our January spotlight).
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- The phase-in and accelerated timeline of middle-income NYS PIT tax cuts as well as the Homeowner Tax Rebate Credit.
- Higher outmigration since the start of the pandemic (for NYC, see our brief on tax revenue options for the latest IRS data and our May Newsletter for Census Bureau population estimates).
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Chart 11
SOURCE: Office of the NYS Comptroller (Schedule E), NYS Department of Taxation and Finance, Office of the NYC Comptroller.
- The impact of higher NYS PIT rates. Withholdings are taxes on wage income, and they represent the largest and more stable component of PIT. Neither NYS nor NYC withholding should be directly affected by PTET, so they should be able to isolate the effect of higher tax rates.
- Chart 12 shows that at the beginning of the pandemic, withholding in NYC lost ground relative to the State due to a combination of higher job losses and outmigration. However, NYS withholding revenues accelerated in correspondence with the implementation of rate increases in July 2021 and remained higher than in the City in May 2023 by approximately 10 percentage points.
Chart 12
SOURCE: Office of the NYS Comptroller, NYS Department of Taxation and Finance, Office of the NYC Comptroller.
- The difference in the withholding indexes is not due to a large shift in the location of wage income. As shown in Chart 13, the NYS/NYC withholding differential swamps the differential in total wages. This is not the cleanest result because wages are reported by place of work and NYS retains withholding even when NYC loses residents. However, it appears that higher NYS rates continue to sustain its revenues.
Chart 13
Source: Office of the NYS Comptroller, NYS Department of Taxation and Finance, NYS Department of Labor (QCEW data), Office of the NYC Comptroller.
- The impact of PTETs. As shown in Chart 11, NYS income taxes (PIT + PTET) started declining rapidly in December 2022, the first month where the December 2021 $10.2 billion PTET payment exits the trailing sum. The rate of decline is exaggerated by the timing of PTET payments.
- NYS PTET started in tax year 2021, but the vast majority of estimated payments for the year were made at the first available date in December. PTET filers were not allowed to reduce PIT installment payments on 2021 income, resulting in a double payment of income taxes. The double-payment was subsequently absorbed in two ways:
- PTET payments on 2021 liability were too high, leading to refunds of approximately $1.6 billion by December 2022.
- PIT credits could be claimed starting in April 2022. The preliminary data on 2021 NYS PIT liability shows that filers claimed $10.6 billion in NYS PTET credits (roughly half of which from NYC residents). However, based on monthly data on PTET returns, estimated payments, and refunds, we estimate that there were an additional $2 billion in 2021 credits, which continued to lower NYS PIT collections in 2023.
- The State FY 2024 Enacted Budget Financial Plan shows a total of $17.0 billion in PTET credits in State FY 2023.
- To show some of the dynamics, we report NYS and PIT refunds in Chart 14. The growth of NYS refunds is significant and ongoing, reaching 80% above their pre-pandemic level in May 2023.
- Despite the large double payment in December 2021 – March 2022, NYS refunds did not jump higher than in NYC in April 2022. While this is in part due to the high overall 2021 tax liability, the steady increase in refund activity suggests that PIT credits were claimed over a long period of time, accentuating the recent drop in revenues.
- The NYS Homeowner Tax Rebate Credit also increased refunds because it was distributed as an advance credit payment starting in mid-2022.
- Similarly, PIT refunds grew in the City after the implementation of NYC PTET and stood at 50% above their pre-pandemic level in May 2023. This is a faster increase than experienced by the State in 2022, likely due to the better knowledge of PTET and in part fueled by an estimated $250 million increase in EITC credits after legislation enacted in 2022. It is likely that refunds will also be high in the last quarter of 2023 for those that filed for extensions in April.
- NYS PTET started in tax year 2021, but the vast majority of estimated payments for the year were made at the first available date in December. PTET filers were not allowed to reduce PIT installment payments on 2021 income, resulting in a double payment of income taxes. The double-payment was subsequently absorbed in two ways:
Chart 14
Source: Office of the NYS Comptroller, NYS Department of Taxation and Finance, Office of the NYC Comptroller.
- Putting the April revenue drops in context. NYS and NYC PIT revenues dropped in April due to a lower overall 2022 liability.
- However, NYC PIT/PTET filers have just started to go through the double-payment of 2022 taxes and, based on the NYS experience, it is plausible that NYC PIT should have recorded a larger drop. This means that revenues may be pushed down later in the year.
- Furthermore, as the effects of PTET start to normalize, NYS revenues should return to a higher level relative to NYC’s due to the higher tax rates in effect until tax year 2027.
New York City’s Cash Balances
- As of June 7th, the City’s cash balance stands at $13.6 billion, almost $4 billion higher than at the same time last year, but down from the historic high of $18.7 billion on April 21st. The high levels are due to a combination of timing between fiscal years, seasonality, and changing circumstances.
- The cash balance includes $1.954 billion in the Revenue Stabilization Fund (RSF), the City’s rainy-day fund. The majority of funds, $1.455 billion, were allocated to the RSF in Fiscal Year 2022.
- COVID-19 relief funding bolstered the City’s cash position. On January 3rd, the City received $2.3 billion in American Rescue Plan-State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds (ARP-SLFRF) and Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) education grants. From December through May, the City also received over $1.7 billion in FEMA from the Department of Homeland Security for reimbursement of COVID-19 related expenditures.
- The City’s cash balances were also boosted by higher-than-expected property and sales tax receipts. Combined property tax receipts from December through May were about $1 billion higher than the prior year. Meantime, combined sales tax receipts from December through May were about $352 million higher than the prior year.
- Balances are projected to remain high in the near term but should begin to gradually decline in FY 2024, in part due to pay-outs for retroactive collective bargaining agreements. The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the third quarter of FY 2023 and projections for cash balances through September 2023, are available here.
Chart 15
Endnotes
[1] Since these initial offerings, HYIC has undertaken two refinancing transactions. In 2017, HYIC issued $2.1 billion of refunding bonds which refinanced all its initial $2 billion bond issue and a portion of its second bond issue under a new legal structure. In 2021, HYIC issued $454 million in refunding bonds which refinanced the remainder of its 2011 bond issue.
Sincerely,
Brad Lander
Contributors
The Comptroller thanks the following members of the Bureau of Budget for their contributions to this newsletter: Eng-Kai Tan, Bureau Chief - Budget; Steven Giachetti, Director of Revenues; Irina Livshits, Chief, Fiscal Analysis Division; Tammy Gamerman, Director of Budget Research; Manny Kwan, Assistant Budget Chief; Steve Corson, Senior Research Analyst; Selçuk Eren, Senior Economist; Marcia Murphy, Senior Economist; Orlando Vasquez, Economist.
Central Treasury Cash Balances Past 12 Months vs. Prior Year
NYC Employment Relative to Pre-Pandemic Levels % change from February 2020, seasonally adjusted
Total Wages Paid in High-Wage and Low-Wage Sectors in NYC year-over-year % change
NYC Rental Housing Inventory and Median One-Bedroom Asking Rent
Pre-Tax Net Profits of NYSE Member Firms
Share of Pre-Pandemic Activity: MTA Ridership and Kastle Systems Card Swipes by Month (Average Non-Holiday Weekdays)
Total Individuals in City Shelters - DHS System plus Asylum Seekers
Transfers from the Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation to the City
Revenues of the Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation
Debt Service & Operating Expenses of Hudson Yards Infrastructure Corporation
PIT Revenues (12-month trailing sum indexed to December 2019)
filing moved to July
moved to May
PIT + PTET Revenues (12-month trailing sum indexed to December 2019)
filing moved to July
moved to May
PTET payment
PTET payment
PIT Withholding (12-month trailing sum indexed to December 2019)
rates take effect
NYS/NYC Total Wage and Withholding Differentials (Difference in 4-quarter trailing sums indexed to 2019Q4)
rates take effect
PIT Refunds (12-month trailing sum indexed to December 2019)
Central Treasury Cash Balances Past 12 Months vs. Prior Year
Archives
- No. 96 – December 10, 2024
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