New York by the Numbers
Weekly Economic and Fiscal Outlook

A Message from the Comptroller

Dear New Yorkers,

While a new President and new COVID vaccines are on the way, the latest pandemic wave is shaping up to be the worst yet for much of the country. New COVID cases, positive test rates, and hospitalizations are rising everywhere.

New York City is managing COVID better than most places, and still recovering economically, albeit slowly. But protecting our loved ones will require a few more months of being careful. In the Spotlight this week, homelessness and rising barriers to shelter entry in New York City.

Our economic struggles haven’t deterred us. New Yorkers are coming together and working harder than ever, and their resilience, creativity and determination will be what brings our city back. I hope this weekly newsletter serves as a helpful resource and regular update on the city’s progress as we navigate the challenges ahead.

Stay vigilant, and mask up!

Sincerely,

Scott M. Stringer

The Economy

National Indicators

•  The number of COVID patients in U.S. hospitals reached a record 66,647 on November 11^th as dozens of states reached all-time highs. With new cases surging, hospitalizations will continue rising, and economic activity is likely to slow as states impose restrictions and wary consumers stay home.
• New York State had 1,677 COVID patients hospitalized, accounting for 2.5% of the U.S. total, up from 1,277 the week prior. Hospitalizations remain well below the New York peak of 18,825 on April 13^th, when New York accounted for one-third of U.S. COVID hospitalizations, but have been rising steadily from a recent low of 410 on September 6^th.

Chart 1

SOURCE: The COVID Tracking Project

• Initial U.S. unemployment claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 709,000 for the week ending November 7^th (Chart 2), down from 757,000 last week.
• Continuing U.S. unemployment insurance claims fell to 6,786,000 for the week of October 31^st, down from a revised 7,222,000 last week.

Chart 2

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

• Recipients of Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) grew to 4,143,389 for the week of October 24^th from 3,983,613 the week prior, an increase of 159,776 (Chart 3). PEUC, enacted as part of the CARES Act, provides 13 weeks of extended benefits to unemployed workers whose 26 weeks of regular unemployment benefits have run out.
• Continuing claims for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) rose to 9,443,127 from 9,332,610 the week prior, an increase of 100,517. PUA, also enacted as part of the CARES Act, covers workers who are typically not eligible for state unemployment benefits, including the self-employed, and those with poorly documented income, who are unable to work due to COVID-19.
• Regular, PUA and PEUC continuing claims together covered 20,464,814 unemployed Americans as of the week ending October 24^th (Chart 3).

Chart 3

SOURCE: U.S. DOL

New York City

• Initial unemployment claims by New York City residents fell to 21,623 for the week of November 7^th, down from 23,239 the week prior (Chart 4). It is the fewest initial claims since New York City’s March shutdown, but weekly claims are still over 300% of pre-pandemic levels.

Chart 4

SOURCE: New York State DOL

Public Assistance

• The number of New York City residents receiving food assistance through the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) climbed above 1.7 million in the month of September (Chart 5). The number of SNAP beneficiaries has increased by 224,080 since February.
• While the number of cash assistance recipients in the city declined modestly in September, the level of cash assistance recipients was still 18.2% higher than February, a difference of more than 59,000 individuals.

Chart 5

SOURCE: New York City Human Resources Administration, Facts.

MTA Subway and Bus Ridership

• Over Monday, November 9^th and Tuesday, November 10^th, subway ridership averaged 1.79 million daily riders, as an average of 1.11 million rode MTA buses. (Chart 6)
• Subway ridership last week approached the system’s most recent peak of 1.80 million weekday riders during the week ending October 23^rd.
• As of Tuesday, November 10^th, the number of riders on the subway was 69% below last year and ridership on MTA buses was 49% below.

Chart 6

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.
NOTE: Excludes federal holidays.  Figures for the week ending November 13 include data through Tuesday, November 10.

MTA Bridge and Tunnel Crossings

• Traffic volume on MTA bridges and tunnels has been roughly flat since late August. (Chart 7)
• The seven-day trailing average has hovered around 800,000, or approximately 10% to 15% below the same time last year.

Chart 7

SOURCE: Metropolitan Transportation Authority, Day-by-Day Ridership Numbers.

New York City Ferry Ridership

• In the third quarter of 2020 (July through September), daily ridership on the City-run NYC Ferry averaged 11,599 on weekdays and 22,455 on weekends, a decline of 51% and 38% from last year.
• The steepest decline in ridership was on the East River route, as the average number of weekday riders dropped 59% from 9,415 in the third quarter of 2019 to 3,903 this year (Chart 8). Excluding the Lower East Side route, which was reconfigured in May 2020, the smallest weekday declines occurred on the Soundview route and the Astoria route, which fell 33% and 34%, respectively.
• Ferry ridership in the third quarter marked an improvement over the second quarter (April through June) when weekday ridership fell 78% and weekend ridership fell 77% from the same period in 2019.

Chart 8

SOURCE: NYC Ferry, Quarterly Reports.
NOTE: In May 2020, the Lower East Side route was reconfigured.

City Finances

Taxes

• City personal income tax revenue withheld from wages and salaries of employees (withholding) fell in October, declining by 16% compared to the same period a year ago (Chart 9).
• Averaging October with September to adjust for varying payroll patterns within any given month, shows a 7.4% decline. September’s increase was partly the result of three biweekly payroll periods occurring this year compared to only two in 2019. Conversely, October’s decline was partly a result of last year having three payroll periods compared to two this year.
• From the beginning of the pandemic in March through October, withholding was 6% lower compared to the previous year, or a loss of nearly $362 million.

Chart 9

SOURCE: NYS Dept. of Taxation and Finance

COVID-19 Spending

• Through November 11^th, the City has committed to $2.33 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2021.
• Most of this spending is due to the roll-in of spending from FY 2020. The City incurred $2.62 billion of COVID related expenditures in FY 2020, $1.39 billion below the June modification estimates.
• In total, the City has incurred or committed to $4.95 billion of COVID related spending in FY 2020 and FY 2021 (Table 1).

Table 1: COVID-19 Expenditures, FY 2020 and FY 2021

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller from FMS.

COVID-19 Contracts

• Through November 11^th, the City has registered $4.40 billion in contracts to procure goods and services in response to the COVID pandemic (Table 2).
• More than sixty percent of the contracts, $2.69 billion, are for hotel and food related contracts and the procurement of personal protective equipment (PPE).
• Other significant contracts include $505 million for medical staffing for COVID-19, $149 million for ventilators and $100 million for testing centers.

Table 2: Registered COVID-19 Contracts through 11-11-2020

SOURCE: Office of the Comptroller analysis of NYC FMS data.
NOTE: Includes only contracts with COVID budget codes.

Cash Position

• The City’s central treasury balance (funds available for expenditure) stood at $5.72 billion as of Tuesday, November 10^th. At the same time last year, the City had $4.82 billion (Chart 10).
• Taking advantage of a provision in the federal CARES Act, the City has deferred payment of payroll taxes since April, which has led to a net improvement in the City’s cash balances of approximately $1.2 billion. Deferrals will end by December 2020 and deferred payments will be due in 2 installments no later than December 2021 and December 2022.  Deferred payments are accrued to the fiscal year in which they are due.
• The Comptroller’s Office’s review of the City’s cash position during the fourth quarter and projections for cash balances through December 31, 2020, are available here.

Chart 10

SOURCE: Office of the NYC Comptroller

Spotlight of the Week

Since New York went on PAUSE on March 22^nd, entry into the City’s shelter system has become increasingly difficult. As the COVID-19 health emergency unfolded this Spring and into the Summer, data from the Department of Homeless Services shows sharp drops in shelter eligibility rates, expressed here as the ratio of entrants to applicants, among adult families (which excludes families with children under age 18) and families with children (which excludes families without children).

Adult families seeking shelter are the most impacted group. In the first three months of 2020, the City approved 29 percent of adult family applicants seeking shelter and granted entry to an average 102 entrants per month. However, eligibility rates for adult families have dropped at varying degrees from March to July (Chart S.1), which is the latest month of data furnished by the Department of Homeless Services. By the end of July, just 38 of the 216 adult family shelter applicants were accepted for entry into the shelter system, an eligibility rate of 18%.

Chart S.1

SOURCE: New York City Comptroller’s Office from DHS STAT Reports
NOTE: The eligibility rate is calculated based on the number of unique applicants. Eligibility rates are slightly lower if based on the application totals above.

This trend has also affected families with children seeking shelter. The number of families with children entering shelter was generally stable from April through July, but the number of ineligible applicants increased (Chart S.2). Shelter eligibility rates for families with children dropped from 40% in April to 31% in July.

Chart S.2

SOURCE: New York City Comptroller’s Office from DHS STAT Reports
NOTE: The eligibility rate is calculated based on the number of unique applicants. Eligibility rates are slightly lower if based on the application totals above.

Measures of the shelter entrants to shelter applicants obscure the total number of applications for shelter submitted by families each month to the City, who may apply more than once if their application is rejected.  The average number of applications per applicant has also grown during the pandemic period, from ratios of 1.49 for adult families and 1.22 for families with children in March to 2.09 and 1.69 respectively by July. This suggests that barriers to entry into the family shelter system have hardened in recent months.

These slumping eligibility rates coincide with an overall drop of some 3,900 fewer individuals in shelter since the start of the pandemic period. Adult families and families with children have both reduced their footprint within the shelter system during this time.  Since March 22^nd, the number of adult families in shelter have dropped by 16% or 834 individuals, while the number of families with children have dropped by 11.5%, representing over 4,000 individuals. Increases in the single adult shelter population have partially offset the declines in individuals in families.

Shelter operations account for a substantial portion of citywide homeless services expenses due to the large number of families with children in shelter. In Fiscal Year 2021, the City budgeted $1.1 billion for family shelter operations and more than half of those expenditures must be drawn from City funds.  However, starting this July, the Federal Government will increase its proportion of funding for family shelter operations from approximately 42% of overall expenses to 49% and it is anticipated that the boost in the Federal funding rate will be sustained beyond Fiscal Year 2021.